While most daily fantasy players are more familiar with the usual salary-cap structure, DraftKings also has tournaments in a pick’em style: There are no player salaries, and you simply select one player across the eight tiers. Here’s a breakdown of the pick’em slate for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Tier 1: Stud Passers
Drew Brees, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints
Quarterback ownership is spread out more evenly than it is at any other position. In tournaments, this means the best plays are often those with the highest upside. Brees offers that this week.
The Saints’ 29.5 implied total is the highest of the slate, and Brees will get to play at the Coors Field of fantasy football, where he’s been at his best.
He’ll be without Mark Ingram due to suspension. With Alvin Kamara on the field more, Brees will have a dynamic pass-catcher in more often, and the Saints should lean on Brees to move the ball. Play Brees in cash lineups and tournaments.
Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots
Brady will be the chalk pick of this tier, but in cash lineups that’s an acceptable cost for the safest play. Brady gets Houston at home in a game that Vegas is head over heels for:
- 50.5 Over/Under (highest of Week 1)
- Patriots have an 20.85 implied total (second-highest of Week 1)
- Patriots are -6.5 favorites
Brady sits atop our models for the season opener in the juiciest game of the week. Lock him into cash lineups.
Tier 2: The Next Best Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers, Quarterback, Los Angeles Chargers
Rivers faces off against the Chiefs in LA this week. This should have Rivers and his pass-catchers celebrating already, as the Chiefs will at best have an injured Eric Berry and, at worst, no Berry at all.
One player does not make or break a defense.
With that said, the Chiefs have largely been a top-10 defense with Eric Berry, and a bottom-16 unit without, during the Andy Reid era. pic.twitter.com/jAqDALCGee
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 24, 2018
In dress rehearsal week of the preseason, the Chiefs starters surrendered 24 points to the Bears backups without Berry. They might be one of the worst defensive units this season.
Rivers has averaged no fewer than 35.6 attempts per game in his four previous seasons. That should be more than enough for him to fillet the Chiefs defense.
Andrew Luck, Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts
Luck will make his return against a Bengals defense that ranked 17th in Passing DVOA last season. Bettors have moved the Over/Under up 1.5 points to 48.5, and the Colts are favored by 2.5 points.
The game is a clear target, but DFS players might forget just how good Luck is as well. Only Aaron Rodgers has averaged more points than Luck since the Stanford product entered the league. Take Luck in tournaments before people remember his brilliance.
Tier 3: The Best Flex Plays
Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner is a capable backup in place of the absent Le’Veon Bell, but make no mistake: This will be the AB show.
- AB with Bell active: 7.15 receptions, 93.6 yards, 0.6 touchdowns
- AB without Bell: 9.1 receptions, 130 yards, 0.81 touchdowns
Brown is the safest play in cash against the 26th-ranked Browns Pass DVOA defense from last season.
David Johnson, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals
In DJ’s breakout season two years ago, he saw 18.3 rushes and 7.5 targets per game. For reference, Todd Gurley carried the ball 18.6 times per game last year, and Christian McCaffrey was targeted 7.1 times per game. With Sam Bradford stabilizing the Cardinals offense, Johnson is in line for a return to form and should come at reduced ownership.
Tier 4: Eye the Chargers
Keenan Allen (WR) and Melvin Gordon (RB), Los Angeles Chargers
Both Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon are great stack options with Rivers. Allen’s fantasy output has a 0.86 correlation with Rivers, and Gordon has a modest 0.20 correlation with his passer.
If the Chargers can move Allen away from Kendall Fuller, he will feast on some of the league’s weakest corners, giving him upside for a monster day. He has the higher ceiling in the FantasyLabs Models, and the correlation makes his stack perfect for tournament rosters.
Gordon averaged 17.8 rushes and 5.2 targets per game last season. Volume and floor are nearly synonymous in fantasy, making Gordon the play in cash.
Tier 5: Elite Receivers
Michael Thomas, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas will be covered by the 31st-ranked defense in Passing DVOA from a season ago, headlined by no cornerback in PFF’s top 32 and multiple outside the top 80. Thomas-Brees is great stack against a porous defense.
You can't guard Mike.
Highest catch rate between a QB and WR over the past 25 years (min. 150 targets):
1. Michael Thomas –> Drew Brees – 72.6%
2. Tyreek Hill –> Alex Smith – 72.3%
3. Wes Welker –> Brady/Manning – 70.8% pic.twitter.com/denL9wwDlc— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 12, 2018
A.J. Green, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals-Colts game continues to look appealing, with A.J. Green primed to see a large portion of the Bengals’ targets. Brandon LaFell was cut in the offseason, and neither John Ross nor Tyler Boyd made an impact last season. Green will get fed against a secondary lacking Rashaan Melvin, the Colts best corner last year, who left in free agency.
Stacking Luck and his opposing WR1 in tournaments will make the most of the 0.25 correlation those positions have.
Tier 6: Load Up the Vikings
Dalvin Cook, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
While Dalvin Cook may lose touches to grinder-extraordinaire Latavius Murray, he’ll make up anything lost by way of the 68 running back targets left behind by Jerick McKinnon. He’ll also get the 49ers’ weak run defense, which was 28th in Rushing DVOA last year. Even if Cook doesn’t dominate his backfield, he’s set up to make the most of the touches he does get.
Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
When healthy, Stefon Diggs has been unstoppable. After struggling with injuries early in the year, Diggs finished the season with six straight games of double-digit points on DraftKings. The 49ers’ 26th-ranked pass defense added Richard Sherman, although the famous corner is known to play one side of the field and is coming off of two Achilles injuries. Diggs is safer than most think this week.
Tier 7: Intriguing Matchups
Alex Collins, Running Back, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are favored by 7.5 points against Nathan Peterman and the Bills. The Ravens will be able to run out to a lead, and Alex Collins will be their guy. Starting with his breakout in Miami, Collins has averaged 16.7 carries per game. Bet on Collins’ volume in cash lineups.
Chris Hogan, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
The Patriots kept three receivers on their roster and added some more in free agency. Only Chris Hogan has a season of 600 yards or more to his name. With little competition in a great game for fantasy players, stacking Brady and his No. 1 receiver provides tremendous upside.
Tier 8: Low-End Flexes
Emmanuel Sanders, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos
Case Keenum was wildly successful when targeting slot receiver Adam Thielen in Minnesota, propelling him to a career year in all receiving categories. Now Sanders takes that role against a Seattle team that has only Earl Thomas remaining from “The Legion of Boom” and had the 13th Pass DVOA defense last season. Lock in Sanders, who had three 1,000-yard seasons before last year.
Rex Burkhead, Running Back, New England Patriots
Taking a running back on a home favorite team projected to score a lot of points is the recipe for fantasy success. Burkhead fills that role nicely. With Sony Michel limited in practices throughout the week and Burkhead now healthy, he figures to see the bulk of the red-zone work on a team that should be making numerous trips.
