DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Talladega: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy for Sunday’s YellaWood 500

The last superspeedway race of the 2022 season takes place at Talladega Superspeedway (2:00 p.m. ET, NBC).

As always with superspeedway racing, place differential is key.

However, this race should be more tame than the previous superspeedway race at Daytona, where one bettor turned a $13.49 bet into $1 million.

That’s because a win-and-in attitude isn’t necessary for the 11 remaining playoff drivers. Instead, they can try to grab stage points and a solid finish.

That opens up the door for non-playoff drivers to push the envelope and try to grab a win. However, it’s likely that it will come from the more aggressive of this bunch who are in equipment good enough to contend for the win.

That means I won’t recommend using the backmarker cars as much, but instead pivot to using drivers starting 34th or better.

Tameness also means place differential will be harder to come by, so I have a few sneaky tournament plays starting a bit farther forward than normal.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for todays YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Talladega DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

#StackTheBack: The stack-the-back theme continues at Talladega, with a bit of a caveat.

We’re not looking to use the drivers starting 35th through 37th. Instead, let’s focus on the next tier of drivers.

Todd Gilliland, Ty Dillon, Michael McDowell, and Cole Custer are all in competitive equipment and all start behind top-tier driver Bubba Wallace.

These are the drivers we want to focus on for our cash-game builds. As long as these drivers survive, they’ll be useful in cash games. And they are nearly just as likely to survive as any other driver starting in front of them.

Talladega DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

My focus for tournaments is purely on ownership, so I’m just going to tell you which drivers I think will be under-utilized in tournaments.

Justin Haley ($6200): Haley is a fantastic superspeedway racer, but with Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher, Kevin Harvick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Kyle Busch, and Bubba Wallace all bigger names starting behind him, I can see Haley ending up under 15%.

My model gives Haley a 22.1% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup, so I don’t mind a bit of leverage here and playing him up to 25%.

Cole Custer ($6700): Custer isn’t a very good superspeedway racer. However, in with the potential for a tame race, that makes me like him a bit more than normal.

With less chance to be in a wreck, all he has to do is work his way forward while playoff drivers tiptoe around each other.

Custer has Michael McDowell right behind him and Bubba Wallace in front of him, both of whom will draw much heavier usage thanks to their superspeedway wins last year.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($9700): Truex has a reputation at superspeedways as a driver who can’t get it done. That means I expect his usage to be a bit depressed compared to other top-tier drivers in his starting spot.

My counterpoint — he is hungry for a win.

Truex wants to avoid a winless season and is sure to press the issue if he’s in the mix late in the race. Truex actually has the best driver rating among all drivers in the three previous races at Daytona and Talladega earlier this year.

Look for the multi-time, runner-up finisher at superspeedway races to have a chance at finally getting it done.

Talladega DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

I absolutely love Erik Jones at superspeedways, and I think there’s a strong chance he wins today’s race.

First, my model gives him a 5.9% chance to do so, but that’s without considering the circumstances. If playoff drivers don’t push as hard, it opens up the door for a driver like Jones to be uber-aggressive and try to snag the win.

With so many big names starting behind him, I don’t expect him to exceed 12% in tournaments. While my projections show that 11% is fair for him, I think it’s undervaluing his odds thanks to the situation.

I don’t mind up to 15% usage on Jones in massive-field GPPs.