DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Talladega: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the GEICO 500

The third drafting race of the NASCAR Cup Series season takes place today at Talladega Superspeedway.

For cash games, the ideal strategy at these tracks is always to take non-backmarkers starting in the back. That means we’ll be looking to stash guys like Zane Smith, Corey LaJoie, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Chase Elliott in our cash-game lineups.

Any driver starting at the back is worthy of being in some percentage of a multi-entry portfolio, but the big names starting in the back third of the field tend to be too chalky.

As such, I’ll just give my low-percentage tournament picks this week. Drafting races, which have a large degree of uncertainty, present the perfect opportunity to get contrarian, which is why I’ll just be focusing on the lower-owned plays for tournament picks.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

 

Talladega DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Todd Gilliland ($5200): Gilliland takes the cake as the most under-rostered driver by my projections. He’s projected to be in just 9% of lineups, but he should wind up in the optimal lineup about 16% of the time according to my model.

Gilliland has a strong history at drafting races as well, with several good runs including a seventh-place finish the last time the series visited Talladega. He was also running toward the front at last year’s Daytona 500 before being caught up in a late wreck with 12 laps to go.

Alex Bowman ($8200): Bowman isn’t known for being a strong drafting racer, but that’s probably what will keep his usage down.

Thanks to teammate Chase Elliott starting in the 29th position, as well as Daytona 500 champion Ricky Stenhouse Jr. starting 33rd, there are two extremely chalky options that players will gravitate toward.

In a race as random as Talladega, and with the equipment Bowman has, he should be in nearly 35% of your lineups optimally. I don’t mind leveraging him into the 40% range thanks to the safety built in here by starting 27th.

To that point, PrizePicks projects Bowman for 12.5 cars passed. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match,

Zane Smith ($5700): Zane Smith is the Corey LaJoie pivot. LaJoie has made massive headlines by taking his Spire Motorsports ride to some incredible finishes at drafting tracks, which should bloat his ownership.

Instead, pivot some of those LaJoie lines to Smith. The part-time Cup Series rookie who runs full time in the Truck Series is an extremely talented driver and will no doubt graduate to the top level in the near future. Earlier this year, he brought his Front Row Motorsports ride home in 13th place at the Daytona 500.

Smith has also won back-to-back Daytona races in the Truck Series, adding to his superspeedway credentials.

Talladega DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

The Penske cars are always strong at drafting tracks, and there’s no reason to think otherwise this weekend.

That makes Austin Cindric ($7000) a sneaky good play. He’s a solid drafting-track racer so far in his young cup career, tallying three top-three finishes and another top 10 to go along with those in just eight starts.

The second-year Penske driver has had a quiet year, which will probably keep him out of enough lineups that I think you can go overweight a bit here and not get too risky.