DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Sonoma: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its second road course race of the year as drivers and teams tackle 110 laps at Sonoma Raceway.

Sonoma is a bit of a different beast than the first road course the series visited, Circuit of the Americas (COTA). COTA is nearly 3.5 miles long, has some high-speed sections, and has comparatively less tire wear than Sonoma. Meanwhile, Sonoma is just 1.99 miles in length, is the slowest road course the series visits, and can chew up tires to the tune of nearly 2 seconds per lap over the long run.

With such a short practice session, it’s going to be hard to gauge who is best over the long run, which may open up some opportunity to find contrarian plays.

Last year that was the case, as the Toyota camp looked really strong over the short run but fooled everyone with their lack of long-run speed.

I’ll be keeping short vs. long-run speed in mind as I give you my picks for this weekend’s race.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma.

 

Sonoma DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Kyle Larson ($10,500): Kyle Larson had a poor qualifying lap, but he looked like he had the car to beat in practice, pacing the field by more than half a second with his best lap. Even over five consecutive laps he had the best car, and he’s been dominant here each of the last two years.

With stage yellows no longer an issue, it’ll allow speed to shine.

By virtue of starting 16th, Larson has ample place-differential potential to go along with a dominant car.

That place-differential potential is seen in Larson’s line of 12.5 cars passed on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Ryan Blaney ($8400): Blaney has quietly been very good at Sonoma over the last few years, with four top-10 finishes in his last five races at this track.

As I talked about on the Running Hot podcast this week, I do think the Fords will struggle, and that was quite evident in both practice and qualifying. Blaney starts 31st, which gives him tons of place-differential opportunity, and I think we need to bake in that safety in cash games.

I’d look to pair him, Larson, and your choice of another dominator in cash, but think Blaney is a prime underweight candidate for tournament formats.

Zane Smith ($5700): Smith is the perfect low-dollar play to help us grab an extra high-dollar driver for our cash lineups. Smith didn’t have the greatest qualifying effort, but he’s very happy with his car and believes he’ll move forward.

I can’t question that given his road-course record in the Truck Series.

Smith won at COTA each of the last two years and took second place at this very track last year in the trucks. Add in another second at Mid-Ohio, and that’s four straight top-two finishes at road courses in Trucks.

With 110 laps, there’s plenty of time for Zane to figure things out in a Cup car and make moves forward.

Sonoma DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

AJ Allmendinger or Daniel Suarez ($9300 or $9900): Allmendinger arguably had the best car over the long run, as evidenced by lap-by-lap practice speeds.

The practice data is a bit broken up, but Allmendinger did make one long run, as did Kyle Larson, and aside from a slow lap on lap five where we can assume he either backed it off or caught traffic, Allmendinger was as fast or faster than Larson on each lap from lap four to lap nine.

If we compare Allmendinger to another road course ace, Tyler Reddick, lap times still favor Allmendinger. Every lap from lap one to lap nine, other than the slow lap five, went in favor of the Kaulig Racing driver.

Sonoma is a true road-course racer’s track, and Allmendinger is among the best in the business at road courses.

The fact that we no longer have stage break cautions should help Allmendinger, who looks to have a very strong long-run car.

As for Suarez, he had the most consistent car in practice with all of his lap times falling in the 79-second bracket. The defending race winner starts ninth, so he’ll have to work his way forward, but his car looks very strong for the second straight year.

I’d likely play one or the other of Allmendinger and Suarez, because it’s unlikely both dominate for a portion of the race and pull off top-three finishes, which is what you’ll likely need to get both into the optimal lineup.

It’s possible to play both, but I’d use both in a small percentage of lineups in a multi-entry portfolio.

Chris Buescher or Michael McDowell ($7900 or $7400): I think it’s unlikely both drivers end up in the optimal lineup, but it’s certainly possible at least one of these two Ford drivers starting inside the top seven at a middling price tag ends up in the optimal.

Both finished inside the top three at this track last year, and both have shown speed so far this weekend.

Buescher had the fastest eighth lap of all drivers in practice, while McDowell had the fastest second and 10th laps, showing his consistency.

Buescher has six straight top-10 finishes at road courses, while McDowell is third overall in speed at road courses since the debut of the Next Gen car.

Like the above with Suarez and Allmendinger, this is a case of likely one or the other mid-range Ford having a strong day and pulling off a top-five finish. However, these two showed last year that it’s certainly not impossible for both to finish near the front, so I don’t mind playing both in a chunk of lineups if you’re multi-entering, more so than the Suarez/Allmendinger combination.

 

Sonoma DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Austin Dillon ($6100) has quietly improved at road courses over the years, and last year he really broke through. In the six road course races, he had major incidents in two of them that relegated him to poor finishes.

However, in his four road-course races without incident, Dillon finished 17th or better every single time. In fact, of those four finishes, three were 11th place or better.

Last year at this very track he started 13th and finished 11th. Now he starts in that 11th spot, so any forward progress by race end means he stands a strong chance of ending up in the optimal lineup at his cheap price tag.