Today’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway (3:00 p.m. ET, USA) requires some extra-special insight to practice data that DFS players rarely need.
Currently, the NASCAR Cup Series divides its practice sessions into two groups. Normally, it’s fine to compare practice times across the two groups. However, track conditions changed drastically from the start of group 1 to the end of group 1, and to the start of group 2.
That means comparing times across groups, or even within the start to the end of a group, becomes an exercise in futility.
Instead, the best we can do is look at practice within a group, or even more granular, within the same part of a group, to get an idea of how fast each car is.
Add in track history, and performance on this tire and track type this year, and we can start to form our projections for each driver in today’s race.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond.
Richmond DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Aric Almirola ($6800): Simple pick here. Almirola is one of the highest projected drivers all year relative to salary. He posted the fastest times across 15, 20, 25, and 30 consecutive laps in practice group 1, and shorter flat tracks are his bread-and-butter track type.
At such a cheap salary, starting 32nd, and with plenty of speed, he’s going to have a monster day barring any penalties or other issues.
Joey Logano ($9300): Richmond is one of Logano’s best tracks. He’s finished inside the top five here in 11 of his last 18 starts.
Yes, his practice times appear slow (13th in single lap, 10th in 10-lap average) to the untrained eye. However, to those paying attention, they’ll see he was the fastest car in practice group 2.
Add in the No. 1 average running position on this tire combination this year, and we have the makings of the perfect cash-game play who actually may go under-owned in all formats.
Justin Haley ($6000): Haley felt like he had a top-10 car during practice, and he qualified at a poor time for track conditions.
At only $6000 and starting 27th, it’s a low-risk play for plenty of upside. That’s exactly what we want in a cash-game option.
Richmond DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Christopher Bell ($9600): It feels like I pick Bell nearly every week these days, and that’s because he’s constantly underrated.
Bell is excellent at Richmond, and shorter flat tracks in general.
If people are going off of practice times, he’ll look slow. Heck, he even went in the faster group 1 and looks slow.
But if you watched practice and qualifying, Bell gave an interview where more information was revealed.
He actually went out later during the first group, after the track had slowed down a bit. That skews his time slower than it should be, which may keep DFS players away from him.
Bell might possibly be under-owned for someone of his caliber at this track type if people are too focused on raw practice speed without adjusting for circumstances.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,600): While I expect Bell to be fast, I expect even more focus from the Toyota camp to be on Martin Truex, Jr.
Richmond is one of Truex’s best tracks, and he arguably had the best car in the spring race at this track.
Add in his playoff status, where he’s on the outside looking in, and I expect full focus from the Toyota camp to go toward Truex.
His practice times were solid for group 1. More importantly, he seemed to have the fastest lap times after 10 laps in his group.
He was also quite happy with his car.
Chris Buescher ($6600): A lot of attention in this price range will go toward Aric Almirola, but that just leaves Buescher right there as the perfect pivot.
Heck, people may even gravitate toward Michael McDowell, who starts 34th, instead of Almirola, opening the door for Buescher to be even lower owned.
Of the three, Buescher is the one driver I project to be lower owned than his Perfect%. That makes him an ideal tournament play.
Richmond DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
This is a very risky play, but I absolutely love Alex Bowman ($8400) this weekend.
Bowman was easily the best car relative to circumstances at the first Richmond race.
That doesn’t mean he was the fastest. Just the best relative to his situation.
What was the situation? Well, he started in the bottom third of the field. After stage 1, his crew got a pit penalty, meaning he had to restart stage 2 from the rear of the field.
In other words, he struggled to even get track position most of the race.
Then, add in his stage 3 strategy where he only made one pit stop, and his green-flag speed looks deceptively slow.
However, adjusting for track position and green flag speed, Bowman easily had a top-10 car.
Heck, he still finished that race in eighth place despite the strategy and issues.
Now he starts today’s race from the fifth spot. That means he’s almost surely going to lose spots and have a poor DFS day.
But almost surely doesn’t mean guaranteed.
My model gives him a 15.8% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup compared to 8% projected ownership. That’s nearly double the chances of being optimal vs. his expected usage.
