DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Nashville: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Ally 400

Tonight’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway should be an entertaining race if the Xfinity and Truck Series races are any indication.

Friday’s 50-minute practice session gave us plenty of data to work with, but we have to remember that practice came in the afternoon and the race will be a night race. As such, I’ll be emphasizing improvement during the practice session in addition to overall speed as well as tire falloff.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Ally 400 at Nashville.

 

Nashville DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Ross Chastain ($9600): Chastain is the polesitter for today’s race, which gives him the edge over Tyler Reddick as the top dominator. He’ll control the initial start and possess the first pit stall, giving him the best opportunity to secure dominator points.

Chastain also has a ton of speed, setting the best 15- and 20-lap averages in practice.

Nashville is a great track for the Watermelon Man. He and Kyle Larson are the only two drivers to secure top-five finishes in both Cup Series races here.

Chastain’s dominator potential is represented with his line of 56.5 laps led on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Christopher Bell ($9400): Bell didn’t pop in practice and struggled to a 22nd-place starting spot in qualifying, but I think he’s going to right the ship.

He’s finished inside the top 10 in both Nashville Cup Series races and is known for his prowess at flat tracks. While Nashville isn’t completely flat, it does hover between an intermediate and a shorter flat track, both of which Bell has been strong at during his time at Joe Gibbs Racing.

He also has teammates who ran very strong times that he can get notes from.

A very underrated factor: Bell improved from five to 10 and from 10 to 15 consecutive laps in practice relative to the field. He has a strong long-run car.

I also like Bell quite a bit in tournaments.

Erik Jones ($6200):Qualifying at Nashville was a treacherous endeavor, as several cars got loose in the corners. Erik Jones was one of those, leading him to a 23rd-place starting position. That’s an unflattering number for Jones, who was arguably a top-10 car in practice.

Jones posted the fourth-best, single-lap speed in the 50-minute session, and backed that up with the 10th-best, five-lap average. He dipped to 14th-best over 10 consecutive laps, but that’s still well ahead of his 23rd-place starting position.

In a TV interview, Jones said he was very happy with the speed of his car and just said some minor balance tweaks were needed. That’s the recipe for a great race car, and one that should get plenty of place differential from the 23rd starting spot.

Corey LaJoie ($5300): LaJoie had some solid practice speed but ultimately lost the car in qualifying, leading to his 36th-place start.

LaJoie came in 24th on the time sheet in practice and has two top-20 finishes in his two starts here. If he simply repeats a 20th-place effort, that’ll crush value.

Nashville DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

The Toyotas: Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex, Jr. both showed a ton of speed in practice and are among the race favorites as a result, and they certainly should be in a good chunk of a multi-entry portfolio.

However, there are two other Toyota drivers that pop in my model.

Denny Hamlin ($10,700) and Bubba Wallace ($8400) both project to be in the optimal lineup more than my model projects they’ll be rostered. So if you want to pivot off of Reddick or Truex (or both!), their teammates are a great place to look.

Chase Elliott ($10,400): Elliott showed a ton of speed late in practice, which I really like because that came as the track cooled down a bit, which should parrot the night-race conditions a bit better.

Elliott won this race last year, and it came on the back of a full race of improvement as well. In that race, Elliott improved his speed in each quarter of the race which ultimately led to his win.

We’ve seen that trend again this weekend in practice. Look for it to continue into the night.

Kevin Harvick ($8800): If you want to pivot off the big names over $9000, Harvick is the ideal guy to do it with. He’s a model of consistency and starts 17th, giving him plenty of place-differential potential.

Nashville has been a good track for him too, with finishes of seventh and 10th in his two starts here.

I also think a night race plays toward Ford a bit. The cooler temperatures will help add some downforce to the Blue Ovals that they’ve been missing with the 2023 front-nose change.

AJ Allmendinger ($6500): I think a lot of people are going to look at A.J. Allmendinger as their tournament play, and rightly so.

Allmendinger won the Xfinity race Saturday, and he posted some very fast practice times inside the top 10. So while this could get a bit chalky, I don’t see his usage climbing high enough to turn this into a fade.

His 19th-place starting position is in that perfect range where he doesn’t start far enough toward the rear to make him automatic chalk, so I think he’s still quite a strong tournament play.

 

Nashville DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Ryan Blaney ($9900): If you want to sneak Ryan Blaney into a few more lineups than you initially pegged him for, I like that idea a lot.

Like I talked about with Harvick, the Fords gain a bit on the field as conditions cool off. That played to Blaney’s advantage at the Coca Cola 600, the only other night race so far, where he won despite closing at 30-1 odds at some places.

Blaney also finished third at Dover — the only other concrete race the series has run at this year.

Add in his third place at this track last year, and we’ve got a nice recipe for a contrarian play in the higher price tier.

My model loved Blaney coming into the week, so I think the souring on him is an overreaction by the market.