DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Kansas: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the AdventHealth 400

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for Sunday’s AdventHealth 400.

Las Vegas is the most comparable track to Kansas, and the series raced there in the third race of the year, so we have some good data to rely on at a race already this year. In addition to practice data, which should be quite reliable thanks to similar weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday in Kansas, we have a solid body of work to use when setting lineups.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway.

 

Kansas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000): Truex is the series’ most recent winner and looked to continue his hot form in practice. Truex was easily the quickest car over the long run in his practice group, but he may be overshadowed on the time sheets by the second group, which practiced in slightly better conditions.

Truex was fourth in my FLAGS metric at Las Vegas, including being the top Toyota, and his speed looks to continue here at Kansas where Toyota has traditionally been slightly better than at Vegas.

He’s my pick for the best car of the race, and I’d play him in all DFS formats.

Josh Berry ($7700): Berry grades out as my top driver in projected points per dollar thanks to his 29th-place qualifying effort. While he wasn’t super fast in practice, the rookie substitute driver has gained plenty of time over the past several races in the Cup car and should continue to improve.

Berry has been solid at this track type, picking up two wins at Vegas in the Xfinity Series.

By having a full 400 miles under his belt in a Cup car at Vegas, and now piloting the car that was third-fastest at Vegas per my FLAGS metric with another 400 miles to get situated, I’m looking for this talented driver to make his way forward from the 29th-place starting spot in top-tier equipment.

Kansas DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

The Toyotas: Toyota seemed to be the dominant manufacturer with Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace joining Truex in the top 10 in five-lap average.

Like Truex, Wallace made his five-lap run in the slower first session and Bubba’s 10-lap run came on used tires. He could be a very sneaky tournament option.

Meanwhile, in the second practice group, Hamlin was the fastest across all long-run segments but did display some significant tire falloff. Christopher Bell didn’t make more than a 10-lap run, but he posted times right in line with Hamlin, and Reddick was just a fraction of a second behind.

You’ll want at least one Toyota in your DFS lineup, maybe more. However, there is a world where Toyota has issues and maybe you want to pivot to the following drivers…

Ross Chastain ($9600): The Trackhouse cars looked really fast in practice, but Chastain himself may end up in fewer lineups than he should based off of a little practice quirk.

You see, the Watermelon Man went out for a short seven-lap run early in practice and brought the car in. After that, he went out later in the practice session on seven-lap old tires and then made a longer run. That means his 10-lap average practice speed came on worn tires, so it will look worse when we compare it to drivers that made their 10-lap run right at the start of practice.

If people don’t consider that factor, it’s likely they’ll be more likely to write off Chastain.

I can’t pass on the guy who had two podium finishes at Vegas last year and was solid again at Vegas this year while both he and his teammate looked good in practice.

Daniel Suarez ($8000): Speaking of Ross’s teammate, Suarez looked great in practice and figures to be in contention for top-three upside. That’s a pretty big deal at just an $8000 salary.

It’s also likely he won’t be too highly rostered thanks to starting in the ninth position.

We don’t need dominator points from Suarez at this price range — just a top-five finish — and that’s well within his range of outcomes.

Kansas DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Ryan Blaney ($9200) doesn’t look great in the 10-lap average, but like Chastain, Blaney made his 10-lap run later in the session on used tires.

In fact, Blaney was the fastest of all drivers that went out later in the session and showed remarkably little falloff from his five to 10-lap average.

In a world where Ford magically found long-run speed, Blaney is the driver I want starting from the 10th spot.