DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Sonoma: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its second road course of the 2024 season, this time on at a repaved Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma repave led to a bit of a different set of drivers near the top of the time sheet, as Joey Logano took pole with Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney in third. Blaney was fastest in practice as well, although Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain led the five- and 10-lap averages in practice.

Hendrick Motorsports placed all four drivers inside the top 10 in qualifying, along with both Trackhouse Racing cars.

With playoff implications on the line for a win for several drivers, as well as stage and playoff points on the line, we could be in for a mixed bag of on-track strategies, which can inform our DFS strategy as well.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.

Sonoma DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

With Joey Logano either needing a win or solid stage points, his stage strategy becomes super important. Either way, it’s far more likely he falls backward than remains at the top, so we need to pass on the polesitter here.

Instead, I think we need a hefty dose of place-differential and finishing-position potential, and for me that starts with Ross Chastain ($8300). Chastain is priced down compared to other top options, but as I mentioned above, he had the best 10-lap average in practice and rolls off from a relatively comfortable ninth-place starting spot, giving him enough place-differential potential to be worthy of a cash-game slot. Chastain has top-10 finishes in each of his last three Sonoma races, so expect him to contend for another top 10.

Chris Buescher ($8600) had the fourth-best overall lap average in practice but starts 26th, putting him in play for a solid finish. Buescher has the best average finish among all drivers at road courses in the Next Gen era, and he also is in a spot where he’s unlikely to grab early stage points, so going on the optimal strategy and vying for a win is his best shot to enhance his playoff chances as the current last driver in the playoffs as of right now. Being on that optimal strategy is crucial for having the best shot at a strong finish.

Denny Hamlin ($9200) also had a nice long-run car based off his fourth-best 10-lap average, and he comes in as the driver with the highest Perfect% score in my model, so I think he’s a shoe-in for cash games with a 25th-place starting spot.

Sonoma DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

I think we need to have a healthy dose of Kyle Larson ($10,000), Tyler Reddick ($9500) and Chase Elliott ($9300) as each of these drivers is quite capable of the win given their practice speed, road-course history, and starting spot. That said, since all three start inside the top five, it’s a very smart move to give them negative correlation, as it’ll be hard for more than one of these drivers to end up in the optimal lineup with so many good place-differential options available.

I also really like Ty Gibbs ($9000), who was dominant in the Xfinity Series race Saturday and had great practice times. Gibbs is excellent at road courses and doesn’t need stage points. Thus, with him unlikely to grab a stage win thanks to the drivers from the trio above likely to grab Stage 1 and Stage 2 wins, I can see him taking the optimal strategy to try to go for the race win and grab five playoff points that way.

Make sure to take note of Will Brown’s ($7200) status leading up to the race. He tweeted the car seemed to be on 75% power for qualifying, and if that doesn’t get sorted out, he might be a good fade. That said, if it is figured out, Brown was third-fastest in practice and comes in at a nice middling price tag.

Because place differential is the name of the game, if this race gets a little bit hectic with the repave, I can see Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek grabbing too much usage, leaving fellow $6k and cheaper drivers who also start in the 30s (Daniel Hemric, Ricky Stenhouse, Josh Berry, and Ryan Preece) too under-rostered. My model gives each driver around a 12-14% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup, so around half the time we can expect at least one of them in the optimal lineup, yet all four project to be played on under 10% of rosters.