DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Michigan: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Firekeepers Casino 400

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season is just three races away from the playoffs, and the points battle is tight as we head to Michigan International Speedway for 400 miles of racing.

Michigan is a 2-mile intermediate track that should have plenty of correlation with other intermediate and high-horsepower tracks that we’ve run at this year.

An abbreviated practice session took place, as rain washed out the latter half of practice, and the starting lineup was set by owner points.

As a result, there’s some opportunity to take advantage of those who may put too much emphasis on starting position.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

Firekeepers Casino 400 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

For cash games, we should start with the driver who was fastest in practice, Martin Truex Jr ($10,000). Truex nearly won this race last year, and he looks to continue his form as the driver that ranked highest in my FLAGS metric in practice.

A.J. Allmendinger ($5600) also rates highly, given his top-10 speed in practice. However, by virtue of the qualifying washout, Allmendinger starts 35th, giving him massive upside in finishing position and place-differential potential.

The same can be said for Allmendinger’s teammate, Daniel Hemric ($5100), who also posted top-10 lap times in practice but starts in the back thanks to the qualifying rainout. By adding both Allmendinger and Hemric into the mix, it’s possible to use four other expensive drivers in cash games, averaging nearly $10k per driver.

Firekeepers Casino 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy and Picks

With qualifying a washout and practice limited, the dominator pool is quite hard to decipher. Here’s how my model rates dominator potential:

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Kyle Larson
3. Tyler Reddick
4. Chase Elliott
5. Christopher Bell
6. Ross Chastain
7. William Byron

I should note, the RFK Racing teammates of Brad Keselowski ($9000) and Chris Buescher ($8600) both placed inside the top seven of my practice FLAGS metric. Add in Truex, and there’s three more drivers that have a shot at leading.

What does this all mean? I’d place little faith in dominators and focus on the best combination of finishing position and place differential while still having a shot to dominate.

Outside of that player pool, Ty Gibbs ($8400) is a fantastic tournament option starting in 19th, while so many other mid-tier and expensive drivers sit in the dominator pool. My model is particularly high on Gibbs this week, and he may go lower owned thanks to some relatively mediocre practice times in a limited session.

In the cheaper tier, Erik Jones ($6700) could be a decent option thanks to his strong track history and solid practice speed (16th in practice FLAGS).

Firekeepers Casino 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

I don’t have a super strong feeling on Alex Bowman ($7800), but he seems like he could fly under the radar given the potentially hefty stars-and-scrubs lineups that could be used thanks to Allmendinger and Hemric’s practice speed.

If the middle tier takes an ownership hit, Bowman could be underutilized in tournaments.

Bowman starts farther back, but he projects to be far less played than his Perfect% and saw all three of his teammates run top-six in practice FLAGS.

That said, if people take note of his 22nd-place starting spot, he may not be all that under the radar. However, my model still projects his Perfect% well above his usage, even if he goes overowned by 10% compared to my projections.