The Round of 8 kicks off at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a classic 1.5-mile track much like the series visited three weeks ago at Kansas.
A straightforward practice session, a race here earlier this year, and plenty of intermediate-track data gives us a solid base to work with for our DFS picks for Las Vegas.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy
Kyle Larson ($11,500): Larson seems like a must-play given his practice speed and track history. Larson put up the fastest 15-lap average despite that actually coming in Group 2 on laps 4 to 18 in his practice run, thanks to an early caution brought out by Ryan Blaney blowing a tire. It’s going to be hard to fade the No. 5 car this weekend.
Ryan Blaney ($9300): Blaney’s misfortune makes him a strong cash-game play since he’ll start shotgun on the field in 37th. With tons of place-differential potential, Blaney is in for a big day as long as he doesn’t have any incidents. He finished third here in the spring.
Erik Jones ($6800): Jones has been solid at the intermediate tracks this year and looks to have a strong car, given he was also in Group 2 and put up the 10th-best 10-lap average in practice. At $6800, it doesn’t take much for him to be a solid cash-game play. All he needs to do is finish in the top 20 and you’ll feel good about the points he gave you.
Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy
Tyler Reddick ($10,000): Reddick is a potential cash-game option, but I really like him in tournaments since he may not be quite as highly owned as he should be with Toyota teammate Christopher Bell on pole and Kyle Larson showing a ton of practice speed in qualifying fifth.
However, Reddick actually had a faster five- and 10-lap average than Larson in the same practice group, but he didn’t stick it out for a 15-lap run. There’s at minimum blazing fast short-run speed from the 45 car, and potentially long-run speed as well. After all, he was catching Larson for the win earlier this year at the first Vegas race, but he just ran out of time.
Chase Elliott ($9500) After Larson, Reddick and Bell, Elliott may be in contention with Denny Hamlin as one of the top five cars. Elliott didn’t quite fire off as fast as the Toyotas of Martin Truex Jr. or Ty Gibbs in the first practice group, but he had elite long-run speed. Elliott had the second-best 10-lap average in Group 1, then posted the best 15-lap average in that group, which tied Larson for the best 15-lap average overall (albeit Larson’s came in Group 2 on three-lap old tires).
I was there watching practice, and Elliott was gapping Hamlin over the course of each’s practice run.
Daniel Suarez ($7200) Suarez had a solid run at Vegas’ most comparable track, Kansas, just three weeks ago. Suarez finished 13th after starting 10th. Suarez ran a full 30-lap run, and he would have likely placed top of the three cars from his group that made the 30-lap run if he hadn’t had to deal with passing Austin Cindric for a handful of laps. By starting 23rd, it seems quite likely Suarez will move forward. The question is just how far.
Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
Spire Motorsports has three fast cars this weekend with Justin Haley (16th), Zane Smith (14th) and Carson Hocevar (6th) all qualifying in the top half of the field.
Haley and Smith in particular are tournament options at $5900 and $6100 respectively, and they could contend for a spot in or near the top 10 based off their practice speed.
Earlier this year Spire had three fast cars as well, but Smith hit the wall on lap four, while Corey LaJoie who then drove the No. 7 car that Haley is in now ran inside the top five for a part of the race, while Hocevar ran inside the top 10 for quite a bit as well.
Back the small team with speed.