DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Las Vegas: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Pennzoil 400

NASCAR heads to its bread-and-butter track type, the 1.5-mile oval, for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (LVMS).

The 1.5-mile track is great because there’s so much data available from past seasons as well as a strong 20-minute practice session where some cars ran as many as 39 laps.

That gives us a ton of data to work with to set our DFS lineups and strategy for Las Vegas, and I’ll lean on my practice FLAGS metric to help us evaluate practice.

As always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR and DFS picks for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Pennzoil 400 DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Ryan Blaney ($9300): Blaney crashed in practice and starts dead last, making him the clear and obvious choice in all formats. The last nine laps he took before his crash, he was the fastest car for seven of them, and second fastest for the other two.

Don’t overthink this one; use him plenty in all formats.

William Byron ($10,000): For me, Byron is the best value of the likely dominators at $10k, compared to Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell, who range from $200-$700 more expensive.

Byron starts the closest to the front of the quartet, giving him a good shot of being the first among this group to lead laps and dominate.

Byron also led all cars in practice in FLAGS.

Carson Hocevar ($7000): Hocevar is a nice value play at just $7000 after qualifying just 25th for the race.

However, Hocevar ran inside the top 15 for most of this race last year, which is also where he finished.

In addition, Hocevar, along with his Spire Motorsports teammates Michael McDowell and Justin Haley, showed plenty of speed in practice. Hocevar was second (!!!) in FLAGS behind only Byron, so we know he has a rocket ship and can contend for the top 10.

Pennzoil 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Two Dominators: The four drivers I mentioned in the Byron section of my core plays are the top four dominator choices. You’ll want at least two of them in most of your lineups, but there are some other dominator options, including my favorite contrarian option…

Alex Bowman ($8000): Bowman actually turned in the fifth-highest average dominator point total when I ran my model’s 10,000 simulations.

It makes sense too when we look at the underlying data.

Bowman was a top-five car at the most recent Las Vegas race in the fall of last year. And in practice on Saturday, he ranked fifth in FLAGS.

By starting sixth, he starts ahead of the likely dominating quartet and could find himself out front before they do, because all five cars that start in front of him practiced slower than him.

Bubba Wallace ($7800): Wallace was my other potential core option if I didn’t choose Hocevar who I like slightly more in all formats.

Wallace was the third-best car in the first of the two practice groups, posting solid speed through the early and mid portions of the run.

Wallace has a strong Vegas history too, finishing fourth in this race two years ago and crashing out while running inside the top five in the second Vegas race the year before that.

Since then, he’s had finishes of 12th and 13th at LVMS, and he was running around that place when he ran into issues in this very race one year ago.

Brad Kesleowski ($7500): My model is very high on Keselowski after a solid practice session where he ranked inside the top 10 in FLAGS.

Keselowski finished fourth in the fall Vegas race of 2023 and followed that up with a 13th in this race one year ago. In the second Vegas race last year, Kez moved forward from a 17th-place starting spot to finish stage one in fifth place.

However, he got caught up in a massive wreck to start the second stage, which put a damper on his result.

His teammate, Chris Buescher, was a top-10 car on speed in both Vegas races last year, so we know this team has speed here.

Keselowski may be a bit of a hidden sleeper thanks to some lap averages that might not pop due to Ryan Blaney’s crash in the first practice group and with the second group getting the better track conditions for long-run speed.

My model’s 40% optimal on Keselowski might be too high, but even if it’s too high, I still think it’s right to be over the ~25% ownership the model gives him.

Pennzoil 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

By needing at least two dominators, you’ll likely have to dip into the $6k range to fill out some lineups, and with solid value on Wallace, Hocevar, and Keselowski in the $7k range, I think that opens up a great spot for Daniel Suarez ($7100) to go under-rostered.

Suarez’s teammate Ross Chastain has been a beast at Vegas, and Chastain also fired off with the best short run speed in practice.

However, Suarez was no slouch either, ranking either 17th or 20th in FLAGS if we decide to merge the two practice groups’ times or just look at them separately.

That might not sound great for a car starting 23rd, but considering that he was in the same neighborhood as Keselowski and Bell in a big FLAGS tier, with just some small variance he could be pushing for the top 10 on pace.

Add in a late race caution or two and there’s upside for close to a top-five finish, especially because Suarez’s team pulled a strategy move in each of the two Vegas races last year.

His wide range of outcomes gives him a low floor, but in a tournament setting we’re worried about ceiling.

His team, his strategy, his speed, and his manufacturer all give him some upside at a projected 15% ownership (which, if anything, I think is too high of a projection). I’d roster him a touch north of 20% of the time in top-heavy formats.