NASCAR

DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Iowa: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Iowa Corn 350

Iowa Speedway is a new track for the NASCAR Cup Series, and with a new track also comes a partial new repave.

The result — a mess. No fewer than five different drivers blew tires during the 50-minute practice session Saturday, and several Xfinity Series drivers blew tires that led to hard crashes in that race.

Tire issues are likely to pop up, and if that happens, there could be enough of an element of randomness that it makes sense to throw in a few contrarian plays into lineups.

Practice may also be of limited use, as the track was constantly changing, so each driver’s best lap times may only be relevant to when they went out, making it hard to sift through and get a solid idea of what the best cars were.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Iowa DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

There is plenty of chalk for cash games, so while I may like some drivers for cash, an underweight strategy on these same drivers may make sense in tournaments with the potential for some tire chaos.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9500) is the obvious candidate to start, as he qualified just 31st but is at a short-flat track, which is a track type that has normally been very good for him.

Kyle Larson ($11,000) starts on the pole and should dominate the early laps. He looked strong in practice and with clean air, lane preference on the start, and the optimal pit stall, he should have plenty of opportunity to lead even in a race with high uncertainty.

Alex Bowman ($8000) had the best 20-lap average in practice, but he starts 33rd. Even if practice times aren’t to be fully trusted, it never hurts to be at the very top of a metric. He had the second-best, 15-lap average of 29 drivers as well, behind only Tyler Reddick in that category.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6000) had some decent lap times in practice and is a three-time winner at Iowa from way back in his days in the Xfinity Series, but he starts 35th. I’d expect him to end up in the mid 20s without attrition, and if there’s more, a top-20 is in play at a cheap price with place differential to add on as well.

 

Iowa DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

Bubba Wallace ($7700) projects to be one of the most underowned drivers per my model, so I’m leading off with him in tournament formats. This has been a great track type for him, and he was one of our favorite bets on the Running Hot podcast earlier this week.

Noah Gragson ($6900) posted the best five-lap average in practice, and then very late in the session, he posted the best single-lap time as he tested his qualifying setup. Unfortunately for him, his car didn’t stick to the bottom in turn four and he had to catch it, hurting both qualifying laps of his. But he looks to have a fast car and starts 23rd at a track type that’s always been good to him.

Chase Briscoe ($7400) can win this race. These types of tracks are good for him, and he does have a win at what I’d consider to be Iowa’s best comparable track, Phoenix. Briscoe also had strong lap times in practice, so I’m not afraid to put him in around 10% of lineups — which is where I have him optimal — given I project him for less than 10% usage.

A second dominator: Besides Larson, here’s my dominator list

2. Denny Hamlin

3. Tyler Reddick

4. Ryan Blaney

5. Christopher Bell

Iowa DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Unfortunately there isn’t one PMPOTW this week. That’s because there’s two!

Todd Gilliland ($6700) and Daniel Suarez ($7000) both fit the PMPOTW bill this week. Two drivers who are relatively cheap and start a bit farther forward than we’d like who should draw sub-8% ownership.

In Suarez’s case, he has practice times backing him up. In Gilliland’s case, it’s similar track performance with a bit of practice speed as well.

I have both of them in the 9-11% optimal range, yet project both to be lower used than that.

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Iowa Speedway is a new track for the NASCAR Cup Series, and with a new track also comes a partial new repave.

The result — a mess. No fewer than five different drivers blew tires during the 50-minute practice session Saturday, and several Xfinity Series drivers blew tires that led to hard crashes in that race.

Tire issues are likely to pop up, and if that happens, there could be enough of an element of randomness that it makes sense to throw in a few contrarian plays into lineups.

Practice may also be of limited use, as the track was constantly changing, so each driver’s best lap times may only be relevant to when they went out, making it hard to sift through and get a solid idea of what the best cars were.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member
 

Iowa DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

There is plenty of chalk for cash games, so while I may like some drivers for cash, an underweight strategy on these same drivers may make sense in tournaments with the potential for some tire chaos.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9500) is the obvious candidate to start, as he qualified just 31st but is at a short-flat track, which is a track type that has normally been very good for him.

Kyle Larson ($11,000) starts on the pole and should dominate the early laps. He looked strong in practice and with clean air, lane preference on the start, and the optimal pit stall, he should have plenty of opportunity to lead even in a race with high uncertainty.

Alex Bowman ($8000) had the best 20-lap average in practice, but he starts 33rd. Even if practice times aren’t to be fully trusted, it never hurts to be at the very top of a metric. He had the second-best, 15-lap average of 29 drivers as well, behind only Tyler Reddick in that category.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6000) had some decent lap times in practice and is a three-time winner at Iowa from way back in his days in the Xfinity Series, but he starts 35th. I’d expect him to end up in the mid 20s without attrition, and if there’s more, a top-20 is in play at a cheap price with place differential to add on as well.

 

Iowa DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

Bubba Wallace ($7700) projects to be one of the most underowned drivers per my model, so I’m leading off with him in tournament formats. This has been a great track type for him, and he was one of our favorite bets on the Running Hot podcast earlier this week.

Noah Gragson ($6900) posted the best five-lap average in practice, and then very late in the session, he posted the best single-lap time as he tested his qualifying setup. Unfortunately for him, his car didn’t stick to the bottom in turn four and he had to catch it, hurting both qualifying laps of his. But he looks to have a fast car and starts 23rd at a track type that’s always been good to him.

Chase Briscoe ($7400) can win this race. These types of tracks are good for him, and he does have a win at what I’d consider to be Iowa’s best comparable track, Phoenix. Briscoe also had strong lap times in practice, so I’m not afraid to put him in around 10% of lineups — which is where I have him optimal — given I project him for less than 10% usage.

A second dominator: Besides Larson, here’s my dominator list

2. Denny Hamlin

3. Tyler Reddick

4. Ryan Blaney

5. Christopher Bell

Iowa DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Unfortunately there isn’t one PMPOTW this week. That’s because there’s two!

Todd Gilliland ($6700) and Daniel Suarez ($7000) both fit the PMPOTW bill this week. Two drivers who are relatively cheap and start a bit farther forward than we’d like who should draw sub-8% ownership.

In Suarez’s case, he has practice times backing him up. In Gilliland’s case, it’s similar track performance with a bit of practice speed as well.

I have both of them in the 9-11% optimal range, yet project both to be lower used than that.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Auto Club: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Pala Casino 400 DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Indianapolis: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Richmond: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Toyota Owners 400 NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Sunday, Apr. 7)