DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Homestead: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

NASCAR heads to its second straight 1.5-mile oval, this time on the steep banks of Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Last weekend’s picks went pretty well, with William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and Daniel Suarez (the PMPOTW) all ending up in the winning lineup, as well as a second dominator among the big four that I suggested in Kyle Larson.

We’ll try to run the success back this week, leaning as usual heavily on practice FLAGS data in addition to track and correlated track history.

As always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Kyle Larson ($11,000): Just play the fastest car, with the best driver, at arguably his best track.

Brad Keselowski ($8000): Keselowski is a solid play in all formats, and while his ceiling may be a bit capped, he can still pull off a top-five finish if there’s a late restart and he races anywhere near his 11th-place practice FLAGS.

By virtue of starting 32nd, his place-differential potential is massive, and he projects as one of the best plays on the slate.

Justin Haley ($6400): The Spire cars were fast last weekend at Las Vegas, and the speed looks to be carrying over to Homestead, as both Carson Hocevar and Haley had top-10 cars in practice FLAGS.

Haley actually even turned five straight 85th-percentile or better laps from laps 17-21 on tires. Four of those five were also above the 90th percentile of drivers.

Haley qualified just 21st, but he should be used in all formats given his speed and price tag.

The model isn’t as high on Hocevar, but it’s a weird artifact from his previous stint at Spire when they were a much smaller team. If you’re using the lineup optimizer, I’d recommend bumping his ceiling up by five points and his median by 2.5 points or so.

A second dominator (sometimes): The second dominator would only come into play in cases where Kyle Larson doesn’t lead a bazillion laps. But that should still happen in more cases than not. Ryan Blaney ($10,000) is my model’s clear second choice for dominator points thanks to a combination of top-five practice FLAGS, top-six starting position, and great track history, but there are a boatload of tertiary options.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Those options include Tyler Reddick, William Byron and more, but my model has them all a clear tier down from Larson and then Blaney from a pure dominator point view. That said, Reddick is still second in my model’s win probability and Byron fourth, so you need to factor finishing position and place differential in as well when looking at these two. That elevates Reddick to the second-best option alongside Blaney when we consider the expensive options.

Bubba Wallace ($8200): Wallace was second in practice FLAGS and starts ninth, which should keep his usage down.

Wallace was a top-five car at Las Vegas before getting caught up in Blaney’s mistake late in the race.

Ty Gibbs ($7400): Gibbs is in a spot where the public is down on him after an embarrassingly slow performance at Las Vegas.

However, he has so far bounced back at Homestead, posting the fifth-best practice FLAGS, which honestly could have been better if not for a couple of spots he had to deal with traffic.

It’s hard to trust him, but I believe in the speed we saw in practice.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

This week’s PMPOTW is a familiar face. I’m rolling with Zane Smith ($5800) as a driver who could get it done this weekend.

Smith just finished an unflattering 23rd at Las Vegas, but all of Front Row Motorsports struggled for speed, as Smith led the way among the FRM trio in green flag speed.

Speed was in those FRM cars this weekend so far, as Noah Gragson starts third and ranked eighth in practice FLAGS, while Smith starts 17th and was 14th in practice FLAGS.

I don’t love this spot for Smith, but it’s hard to argue a $5800 car that could get positive place differential if he runs 14th like he practiced. Add in a bit of positive late-race variance and a top 10 is not out of the question.

I’d play Zane north of 10% in a spot he should be rostered in about 6-7% of lineups overall.