DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Homestead: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

NASCAR heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the third-to-last race of the 2024 season.

Homestead is a 1.5-mile track with steep, variable banking. Its old surface age means it’s abrasive on the tires and causes plenty of tire wear, much like Darlington, which is Homestead’s best comparable track.

Much like Darlington, being able to analyze long-run speed in practice is key to a successful DFS day.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Homestead DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Kyle Larson ($11,000): Larson has led 40% of all laps he’s run for Hendrick Motorsports at Homestead. He starts second. Don’t overthink this.

Ross Chastain ($8800): Chastain is in a great spot in all formats, as there are several big-name drivers that will draw usage in both tournaments and cash games that could cause Ross to go overlooked.

However, these steep, slick tracks are right up Chastain’s alley, and while he’s yet to lead a lap, he does have a second-place finish here on his resume.

Noah Gragson ($7400): I know Gragson starts a bit farther forward than we’d ordinarily like for cash games, but that just makes me like him even more in that format.

Barring a problem, Gragson is almost surely going to have a top-10 car after topping the field in practice on every long-run metric from 10 to 30 laps — the maximum average NASCAR scores in practice.

If we can get a driver and car combination with some of the best speed at both a price and usage discount because people are worried about place differential, we should get after it.

Gragson will likely be overrostered in tournament formats, so considering an underweight angle on him in tournaments given his youth and middling equipment isn’t a bad idea.

Austin Cindric ($7000): Cindric starts 36th, meaning aside from the two trash cars of J.J. Yeley and Chad Finchum that start behind him, his only avenue is forward.

Homestead has been a great track for Cindric, with finishes of 19th and 12 in his two Cup starts. That comes in addition to his two most recent Xfinity Series races here, where he led the most laps in one and finshed second in the other.

He may not have the best short-run speed, but I noticed all the Team Penske Fords improved relative to the field on the long run in practice.

Homestead DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy and Picks

Denny Hamlin ($9800): Hamlin has dipped below the $10k price range, so it’s probably time to buy in. Should Larson falter, Hamlin is right in a group with Toyota teammates Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick for the next-most likely driver to dominate and win.

Those other two will come with a cost and ownership premium, so I’ll buy the discount on Hamlin. He also comes with the added upside of going for the win, since racing his way in on points seems unlikely, which gives him (and Reddick) an advantage over Bell when it comes to having the ability to go on an alternate strategy since they likely need to win to advance.

In lineups with Larson, you’ll want to negatively correlate Hamlin with Reddick and Bell (especially Reddick) since they’ll pull secondary dominator points from each other. However, if Larson has a problem, then there’s room for more than one of these drivers to dominate.

Brad Keselowski ($8800): If we’re thinking about a potential late-race caution that could cause some chaos, look no further than Brad Keselowski.

Kez set the fastest five-lap average in practice, so in a chaos-type lineup, you’ll want to add some extra Keselowski in.

Other drivers that may pair well with him in a chaos line include William Byron, Bubba Wallace, and Zane Smith, who all displayed short-run speed and are projected to be in fewer lineups than optimal.

John H. Nemechek ($6000): JHN is a pivot off his teammate Erik Jones, who figures to be more highly rostered thanks to his better name recognition.

But my model has these two drivers pretty equal here, and Nemechek has actually picked up more top-10 finishes than his teammate including Vegas just last week — which is a secondary comp to Homestead — as well as Kansas and the first Bristol race that also required tire management.