DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Dover: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Würth 400

This weekend’s race at Dover Motor Speedway is a great opportunity to get a little different if DFS players are too focused on practice times.

That’s because practice was held in cloudy 60-degree weather, which caused speeds to be quite high and tire cording to take effect. However, the race day forecast is close to 80 degrees with sunny skies. Those higher track temperatures should reduce any tire-cording issues, but also change how cars handle and behave.

That may make practice times a bit less relevant than normal, at a track where practice times already have lower correlation to finishing position than the average track.

With 400 laps scheduled, we’ll definitely want 2-3 dominators in most lineups, with the occasional sprinkle of one dominator in a multi-entry portfolio.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.

Dover DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

Despite qualifying off the front row, William Byron ($11,000) is where I’m going to start for cash games. He led the most laps last year at Dover, starts third, and posted the best average lap times in his practice group. This is a spot where we don’t need to differentiate because of the cash-game format, so I’m fine relying on practice times as an added factor here. Practice still means something, just not as much as it does most weeks.

Chase Elliott ($9900) is a pretty solid cash-game option given his 29th-place starting spot and strong track history. Outside of two DNFs, nine of his other 11 starts at the Monster Mile have ended in top-five finishes. Given how fast Byron was in practice, there’s also room for his teammates, of which Elliott is one, to borrow some setup ideas and make speed. I expect Elliott to have a top-10 car after 400 miles.

Daniel Suarez ($6700) is priced way down this week despite Dover being one of his best tracks. While he qualified only 31st and didn’t post great practice times, that’s just an opportunity to hop on a driver with a fantastic track history and gobble up a bunch of place differential at a cheap price.

Dover DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

I personally like Tyler Reddick ($8200) in all formats this week thanks to being priced in the lower $8k range when he’s a driver that probably should have a $9000 price tag at minimum, if not closer to $10k. Reddick is great at steep tracks, and while his finishes specifically at Dover haven’t been inside the top five, they’ve been knocking on the door. He has the upside to lead, and to win.

Both Denny Hamlin ($10,800) and Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300) are interesting tournament options, and I have maybe a bit of a unique take on how to use them.

Hamlin looked better in practice than Truex, but it wasn’t by a ton. Hamlin’s 10-lap average was 23.176 sec/lap, while Truex’s was 23.262 sec/lap. That’s less than a tenth of a second per lap. Hamlin starts sixth, while Truex starts 15th, and Hamlin is priced cheaper. I think people will believe Hamlin is more likely to dominate, and while I agree with that, I don’t think there’s a monstrous difference between the two.

I expect Hamlin to have higher usage than Truex, but in my opinion (and based off the Perfect% calculations), we should be playing these two in a similar percentage of lineups. In doing so, we gain leverage on the field, which I believe will be overweight on Hamlin thanks to overvaluing practice.

I don’t think enough people will use Corey Heim ($5800) given his lack of name recognition among more casual DFS players. That should keep his usage down, but my model gives him about a 15% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup. Heim’s two DNFs in his only two NASCAR Xfinity Series starts at the track also might scare people away. But Heim has performed well at similar steeply banked tracks, picking up a win at Bristol and leading the most laps at Homestead last year in the Truck Series. His practice times were also solid, and I’m happy to use that as another reason to play him if people aren’t going to use Heim as much as they should.

Dover DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

If you want to get weird (and I do), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6500) is arguably the most aggressively smart pick in the $6000-$7000 range. That’s because both Noah Gragson and Michael McDowell start inside the top eight — too far forward to feel comfortable using them. Everyone else in this range starts 20th or worse. That leaves Stenhouse alone on an island in this price range, starting 17th. Stenhouse’s finishes at Dover in the Next Gen car are third and 15th, showing his upside here. After coming off a misleading finish of 23rd at the last intermediate package race at Texas, where he had arguably a top-five car, Stenhouse fits the bill of a cheap play with upside who may not draw as much usage as he should. I’m manually bumping up my Stenhouse projection, as I believe my model is too low on him.

Stenhouse’s Dover stats are 31.2% better than his average track. That tops the field.