DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Darlington: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Goodyear 400

Two weeks ago, the NASCAR Cup Series raced at the steep banks of the 1.5-mile, high tire wear Homestead-Miami Speedway. Now, NASCAR is back at another steeply banked, high-wear intermediate track: Darlington.

A good chunk of drivers that did well at Homestead are expected to also perform well at the 1.336 egg-shaped Darlington Raceway, and that’s mostly reflected in practice times and betting odds.

Like Homestead, we’ll rely on practice FLAGS data in addition to track and correlated track history…but this time our correlated track history includes Homestead, which was run just two weeks ago.

As always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway.

Goodyear 400 DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Brad Keselowski and Josh Berry ($8000, $7800): Keselowski and Berry only qualified 20th and 24th, respectively, thanks to the qualifying order, where they went out earlier in the sessions while track conditions were less optimal.

But they were the top two cars in practice FLAGS from the first practice group, and after adjusting for groups, I still have both as top-10 overall cars in practice FLAGS when combining the groups.

Both drivers rank in the top three in median points per dollar and ceiling points per dollar.

Two Dominators: This is the hardest part of them all, and I’m going to leave this as a choose-your-own-adventure, but there’s a clear tier of five.

By median points per dollar, my model has it:

1. Kyle Larson
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Tyler Reddick
5. William Byron

By ceiling points per dollar, my model has it:

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Kyle Larson
3. Ryan Blaney
4. William Byron
5. Tyler Reddick

The issue I have here is that Byron and Reddick practiced a tier better than Hamlin in the same practice group, so I could see bumping Byron and Reddick up and Hamlin down mentally. That said, Hamlin starts third to Reddick’s seventh, while Byron starts on the pole.

Byron hasn’t quite had the past dominator performances here and at similar tracks to Hamlin and Reddick, so this is a whole mess. Meanwhile, Blaney was the clear best car in practice but starts ninth, and Darlington has been a historically poor track for him.

Finally, there’s Larson. He has by far the best track record of dominance but starts the deepest and only practiced about on par with Byron and Reddick.

So I think it comes down to how you personally value starting position/pit selection, track history, and practice speeds and with what weights for each.

It also probably depends on how you want to construct the rest of your roster as well.

There’s a world in which you can fit in three dominators and just one of Keselowski or Berry, but it’s so hard to pass on both Keselowski and Berry that I think you just need to make your bed with what you value among these drivers.

Personally, just to “make a call” for this write-up, I’ll choose Byron and Reddick.

Filling out the rest: Depending on how you choose your dominators, I find myself gravitating toward Daniel Suarez ($6800), Austin Dillon ($6300), and Cole Custer ($5800) as roster fillers, but you may need to look outside that trio as well depending on how you structure your dominators and if you choose one or both of Keselowski and Berry.

Goodyear 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

The Other Dominators: Whichever dominators from the group of five I mentioned you didn’t use as your core are all fine options as tournament dominators.

Ryan Preece ($7200): There is a sneaky world in which Ryan Preece grabs the lead for a bit at Darlington given he starts on the outside pole and practiced right there with polesitter William Byron in speed.

Darlington has also been a solid track for Preece in his career, where he’s put up two 12th-place finishes in cars that typically finished in the mid-20s for season-long performance.

Kyle Busch ($8800): Aside from Byron, Preece, Larson, and Reddick, Kyle Busch was the other car in a tier of five drivers that practiced basically under the same blanket in FLAGS after Blaney, who was the clear top car in practice FLAGS.

Darlington is also a great track for Kyle Busch, including in the most recent Darlington race, where he finished second.

Carson Hocevar ($7000): Starting 12th, Hocevar’s ownership will be kept down thanks to his elevated starting spot. But Darlington is one of the sophomore driver’s best tracks, and he had the practice speed to back it up, ranking fourth in the slower group and at worst 13th depending on how I group-adjust practice speeds.

Zane Smith ($6000): Smith fires off 16th and is cheaper than Hocevar and also shined in practice FLAGS in the faster practice group, ranking sixth in the faster group ahead of drivers like Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, and Christopher Bell, to name a few.

Goodyear 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Austin Cindric ($7700): I am not saying Cindric is a good play. In fact, there’s a reason he’s just 8.5% optimal by my projections.

However, I think he goes 5% owned, or even possibly less.

The whole purpose of the PMPOTW is to highlight low-owned drivers who I think are going to be under-utilized by the field, and Cindric fits that bill.

Don’t go crazy here, but there is a world in which he pulls off a top-five finish. After all, he ranked just behind two of my core plays, Keselowski and Berry, in practice FLAGS in the first practice group, and directly ahead of another tournament option in Hocevar.

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