DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Darlington: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Southern 500

Darlington Raceway plays host to the final race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season.

The series visited Darlington back in May, giving us a good baseline to work with. Add in a solid practice session where most drivers got in a long run, and there’s plenty of data to use for one of NASCAR’s Crown Jewel races.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

Southern 500 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

In cash games, we have to start with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6200), who crashed in practice but was one of the top six or seven cars in a stacked practice group prior to that. With the off-pace Timmy Hill the only car to start behind him, Stenhouse can only go forward, earning us plenty of place-differential spots for a high ceiling, while simultaneously boasting the highest salary-adjusted floor on the slate.

Tyler Reddick ($10,500) is my personal preferred choice among the dominators. Reddick was the best car in the first Darlington race, and based off lap-by-lap data, he absoutely smashed the field in practice this weekend. It’s hard to tell that was the case, because of Stenhouse’s spinout after eight laps. That means Group A’s 10-plus lap averages will appear slower than Group B’s. Reddick was the driver with the best 10-lap average in Group A.

Todd Gilliland ($6800) had a top-half car in Group B, maybe even as good as top three or four in that group. Gilliland earlier this year started 12th, and finished 15th after a solid run where he placed inside the top 15 in FLAGS. I expect a similar performance, despite starting 33rd.

Southern 500 DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

I wrote up Reddick in cash games; I’m writing him up in tournaments. Reddick to me had the best car when looking at lap-by-lap data, but I think people will be on Kyle Larson ($10,700) and Denny Hamlin ($11,000) as much, if not more. To be clear, these are easily my top three in my model — I just prefer Reddick the most of the trio, but you should use all three as your top-three dominator options.

After those three, William Byron ($10,200) and Brad Keselowski ($9800) are my next two dominator preferences. Both had great long-run speed in Group A, which was clearly the stronger of the two groups. Keselowski won at Darlington earlier this year, while Byron has a win here last year, ran third in FLAGS earlier this year, and has a win at Darlington’s best comparable track, Homestead, in 2021.

The $7000-$7500 range is key to a successful DFS weekend. By practice FLAGS, Alex Bowman ($7500) and Noah Gragson ($7000) fell in a similar tier to Josh Berry ($7100). Berry has been a hot commodity all weekend thanks to his third-place finish here in May. However, Bowman and Gragson start 27th and 29th respectively, while Berry starts 15th. I’m projecting Berry to be the most over-rostered of the trio. All three are better plays than Erik Jones ($7400), who fired off fast in practice and is a two-time winner here. Jones fell off hard over the long run, and he should be over-rostered.

Ryan Preece ($5600) is a sneaky tournament option this weekend. He ranked just behind Bubba Wallace in practice FLAGS in Group A, with slightly better long-run speed than the polesitter. But Preece starts 30th and costs $2100 less. My model gives him a 22.8% chance to be in the optimal lineup, compared to just 13% projected usage.

Southern 500 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

I can’t get enough of Zane Smith ($5400) this weekend after looking at lap-by-lap data.

In practice Group A, Smith had:

• The second-best 21st lap (behind only Reddick)
• The second-best 23rd lap (behind only Byron)
• The best 26th and 28th laps out of six cars that included Byron and Larson

There was some sneaky long-run speed in that car after firing off slowly.

Smith starts 26th instead of in the 30s where he typically runs. That should keep his usage down, especially if DFS players are looking at lap averages, where he had misleading fourth-slowest times over 10, 15, and 20 consecutive laps thanks to running in Group A where Stenhouse spun after just eight laps.