The final race of the Round of 12 takes place at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval — part road course, part oval.
Even though it’s partly on the oval, we can just classify this as a road course. That rang true with road-course expert Shane van Gisbergen taking the pole ahead of Tyler Reddick and A.J. Allmendinger, two other road-course aces.
With driver points at a premium for Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Blaney, we can get a good idea that they’ll be on the suboptimal strategy racing for stage points. Likely everyone else that’s in a competitive situation should be on the the race-winning strategy.
That’ll help guide us in our DFS selections for this one, along with the usual practice and qualifying sessions.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte.
Charlotte DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
William Byron ($9800): Byron was one of the best cars in practice and starts 10th, giving him some place-differential potential to go with that speed.
Byron is also locked into the next round of the playoffs, so he’s guaranteed to be on the optimal race-winning strategy, which will give him the best shot at finishing up front while drivers like Reddick, Logano and Elliott may all have to points race, giving him three relatively comfortable place-differential spots that he’d have to lose back.
Christopher Bell ($9000): Bell is in nearly an identical spot to Byron, sitting 57 points ahead of the cut line. Bell will lock into the next round of the playoffs pretty comfortably, so he can also go for the race-winning strategy.
He starts 12th, which gives him a nice cushion to go with a top-tier car. Bell has won here before and should have no problem making speed.
Ty Gibbs ($8500): Gibbs is an excellent road-course racer and will be on the optimal strategy because he’s already been eliminated from the playoffs. Gibbs has five road-course wins in the Xfinity Series, but he is still looking for his first Cup Series win.
He ranks first in my model’s Perfect% and starts 19th, which makes him a great cash-game option.
Charlotte DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
One of Shane van Gisbergen or A.J. Allmendinger ($10,300 or $10,000): It’s very difficult for the two Kaulig teammates to both finish in the optimal lineup given they both start near the front and there are only 109 scheduled laps, meaning there’s only around 65-70 dominator points available tops depending on how many green-flag laps are run.
With so many big names at big prices starting farther back, especially with Byron, Bell, and Kyle Larson able to go on the optimal strategy, it reduces the chances of both the Kaulig teammates ending up in the perfect lineup starting from first and third with little-to-no place differential available.
If you’re mass multi-entering, I could see rostering them together on maybe five percent of lineups, but these two should be negatively correlated, so set a rule for that when using the FantasyLabs optimizer.
Chase Elliott ($9500): Elliott is a particularly risky play because he will absolutely be points racing, but I think that will keep people off of him.
Elliott is capable enough of putting together a strong third stage to overcome slower cars, and if there are any late-race cautions (which seems likely given this track’s history and the new configuration), he’ll have even more opportunity to make up spots on late restarts.
I actually disagree with my model’s 13.7% Perfect% projection, and think Elliott has probably closer to a 20% chance of being in the optimal lineup. I’d roster him accordingly.
Bubba Wallace ($6500): It’s not often we get a $6500 driver with top-10 speed in practice over the long run. It’s even better that Wallace can race on the optimal strategy and go for the win, and it helps even more that he starts ninth so DFS players will largely ignore him, but he can still pick up a few place-differential spots by finishing near the top five.
Maybe you’ll chuckle about Wallace finishing near the top five at a road course, but he has a seventh at this very race two years ago. All he needs to do is hang around where he starts in ninth, and any potential late-race chaos could put him in position for that top five.
Ryan Preece ($5600): Preece tends to go overlooked at road courses, but he’s shown flashes here and there, most recently with a ninth-place finish at Watkins Glen. Preece also finished 11th in this race last year and has another 14th-place finish back in 2020 on the Roval.
He’s the driver with the highest difference between his projected usage and his Perfect% that starts 31st or worse.