DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Bristol: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Food City 500

Tires look to be the name of the game as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Food City 500.

In practice, tires were wearing down to the cords, much like last year’s Food City 500, so it appears tire management is going to be key for this race.

That should put veterans at an advantage, but maybe not as much as last year since the tire issues came as a bit more of a surprise a year ago.

Add in my practice FLAGS data along with track history as the most important factors, and we’ll have a bit of an idea of how to get a handle on this race.

The main caveat, this race is always one of the lower-predictability tracks, so it may pay off to be a bit more contrarian than normal.

As always, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Food City 500 DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Kyle Larson ($11,000): It’s close between Larson and Denny Hamlin for your top-dollar pick, but I’ll go with Larson who was clearly the best in his practice group, which may put him among the best overall cars.

Add in slightly better starting track position than Hamlin, and he’s a bit more likely to dominate than last year’s winner.

Joey Logano ($9300): We have another potential decision here between Logano and William Byron. Logano was the best in the second practice group, ahead of Byron and Hamlin, and Logano comes in $600 cheaper than Byron.

Both Logano and Byron qualified deep in the field, but Logano’s 38th-place starting spot gives him a higher projection, and thus Perfect%, than Byron.

Noah Gragson ($6900): Even after giving a pretty hefty adjustment upward for the second practice group (and thus similarly downward for the first), I still get Gragson as the 12th-best car for practice FLAGS.

Bristol has always been a great track for him, with two wins in the Xfinity Series and a 12th-place finish in the second Bristol Cup race last year.

There is a case to be made to fade him in tournaments, however, given his aggressive style that may not be conducive to a tire-management race for a driver in his third full-time Cup season.

Food City 500 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Denny Hamlin and William Byron ($11,100 and $9900): These two are the pivots off Larson and Logano respectively, as I outlined in my Core section.

Tyler Reddick ($8200): Reddick might be overlooked given his “poor” track history, but I’m high on the 23XI Racing team leader.

Reddick did finish 4th at Bristol in his rookie year, and he has a win here in Xfinity. He just hasn’t quite had the results the last few years at Bristol, so I think people are down on him.

But Reddick practiced around fourth or fifth in his practice group, which fielded the stronger of the two groups. That means a return to old form may be in the cards at discounted ownership.

John Hunter Nemechek ($6000): JHN comes in an incredible 11th in my practice FLAGS, but that shouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise.

He finished sixth in this exact race one year ago, which was also a tire-management Bristol race just like Sunday’s race is expected to be.

Nemechek rolls off 32nd, so he provides plenty of upside should he finish in the neighborhood of his practice speed.

Food City 500 DraftKings Paul Menard Pick of the Week

One of last year’s dominant cars in this race rolls off from the sixth position, and that’s the No. 54 of Ty Gibbs ($8400).

The public is down on Gibbs after an awful start to the year, but the third-year driver has finished 13th and ninth in his last two starts, showing improved speed, closer to where his potential lies.

Bristol is a great track for Gibbs, and he practiced well, ranking just behind Logano, Byron, Chase Elliott, Reddick, and Hamlin in his practice group.

There’s a world in which Gibbs grabs the lead here and pulls of a strong finish to get him in the optimal lineup, especially with an extra year to learn tire management here.