Today’s Kwik Trip 250 at Road America (3:00 p.m. ET, USA) is only 62 laps long. That’s the fewest laps we’ll see in a race all year, and that has major DFS implications.
For starters, 62 laps means only 15.5 points for laps led are available in total across the whole field. With stage cautions and potential for other yellow-flag periods, there will likely be at most 55 green-flag laps, equating to fewer than 25 fastest-lap points available across the 37-car field.
That means we need to focus solely on the combination of place differential and finishing position, while adjusting for salary and projected ownership when setting lineups.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Let’s dive into today’s NASCAR DFS picks for the Kwik Trip 250 at Road America.
Kwik Trip 250 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Daniel Suarez ($7700): This one’s pretty simple. The driver who has been the fastest this year in the two previous road course races costs only $7700 and starts in 17th place.
That means plenty of place-differential potential at a cheap price. In addition, Suarez was fast enough in practice — posting the 10th best single-lap speed and fifth best five-lap average — to have confidence in him moving forward.
Justin Haley ($5900): Haley is normally a threat for a mid-pack or better finish on road courses, but he did struggle with his car in practice.
However, I’m not too worried as far as cash games go, because his floor is elevated with a 34th place starting position.
He was 25th in practice, and he’ll have all race to work on his car to improve it.
He projects for plenty of ownership, which means you can go underweight on him in tournaments. But it’s hard to get off of him in cash games at one of his best track types, at a cheap price, and starting so far back in the field.
Kwik Trip 250 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Ross Chastain ($10,300): While Chase Elliott ($11,100) and Kyle Larson ($11,400) soak up plenty of ownership starting first and third, Chastain is waiting in the wings to pounce from a DFS perspective.
Elliott and Larson will need exceptional days to end up in the optimal lineup, with a chunk of dominator points and a race win.
My model thinks they will draw over 50% usage combined while only having a 27% combined chance of ending up the optimal lineup.
Instead, pivot to Chastain, who starts 12th and has more room for place differential. While he’ll draw plenty of usage, he provides a much better usage-to-optimal ratio among the expensive tier of drivers.
Chris Buescher ($6300): Buescher is a top-10 driver based off his on-track performance so far.
His sixth-best result in practice, plus a seventh-place qualifying effort, means he’s extremely fast for a driver priced as the 25th most expensive option.
Yes, his seventh-place starting position means it’s far more likely he’ll go backward than forward, but there’s plenty of hope for him to reach his upside.
In addition to the fast practice, Buescher also finished second at the most recent road course race at Sonoma. That race, just three weekends ago, leaves little turnaround time for other teams to catch up.
Supposedly, Buescher’s team found something at the Watkins Glen tire test in May, just prior to the Sonoma race. If so, the gains definitely showed. Buescher’s teammate Brad Keselowski, who normally struggled at Sonoma even with top-tier Team Penske, also claimed a top-10 finish.
Keselowski has also shown speed this weekend, meaning this team is hot right now at the road courses. My model gives Buescher a 31% chance of finishing ahead of where he starts. If he does so, he’s got a great shot at winding up in the optimal lineup.
Kwik Trip 250 Paul Menard Picks of the Week
In the history of the Paul Menard Pick of the Week (PMPOTW), I have never given out more than one PMPOTW in a single week.
However, today is the day I break that rule.
I still really like two drivers that I talked about in my weekly Stacking Dennys podcast with Jordan McAbee of fantasyracingonline.com.
On the podcast, I mentioned I was eyeing both Alex Bowman ($8200) and Ryan Blaney ($9200) as tournament plays based off their sneaky speed this year at road courses.
Blaney has been the third-fastest driver in average green-flag speed ranking between the two road courses, behind only race winners Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain.
Bowman checks in fifth in the same metric.
These two drivers both project to be in the optimal lineup about 7% more than their expected usage, in absolute value.
In relative terms (Perfect% / Own%), Bowman is the better value, showing a 62.7% relative value in upside compared to usage. Blaney is still solid at a 38.2% relative value, but he offers more safety with his 19th-place starting position compared to Bowman’s eighth-place starting spot.
