Superspeedway racing is back as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega for the GEICO 500 (3:00 p.m. ET, FOX).
When it comes to superspeedway racing, almost any car that can hang with the pack has a shot at finishing toward the front, thanks to the draft. That means I’ll be eyeing drivers starting toward the back half of the field that are expected to garner lower usage for my tournament picks.
Any driver that shows any ability to hang with the pack is playable in tournaments, so if I don’t list a driver that doesn’t mean he’s a “bad play.” It just means I like other drivers more.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Let’s jump into today’s NASCAR DFS picks for the GEICO 500.
GEICO 500 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
For cash games, I like using my projected optimal lineup in the optimizer with one exception.
I’d recommend making a pivot off one of the drivers starting a bit further forward to one cheaper of the drivers starting farther back to avoid some unnecessary risk.
That means instead of using Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., I’m pivoting to David Ragan ($5900) starting 36th. Ragan is a seasoned superspeedway racer who knows he needs to avoid messy situations early on in his Rick Ware Racing car. He knows he needs to be there at the end of the race.
He used this philosophy to pilot his No. 15 Ford to an eighth-place finish at Daytona. Two of his three superspeedway starts for Rick Ware Racing have ended up in top-eight finishes thanks to his smart driving and years of experience.
By pivoting from Stenhouse to Ragan, you’re raising your floor by six points while only lowering the optimal projection by four points. That’s a worthy pivot off of an extra aggressive Stenhouse.
Note: it may appear in the projections that pivoting to J.J. Yeley would appear even better, but it’s hard to model just how slow that car is. Yeley was more than half a second slower than the next slowest car of B.J. McLeod.
GEICO 500 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
When it comes to tournaments, we know the top cars starting toward the back will garner plenty of usage.
Drivers like Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and Ryan Blaney will all be in a ton of lineups.
Instead, I’m looking to pivot to lesser-known drivers who have nearly as good a chance of finishing in the front half of the remaining cars.
That means Landon Cassill ($4900), Ragan, Corey LaJoie ($5200), Todd Gilliland ($6200), and Noah Gragson ($5400) are all excellent pivots.
One word of caution about Cassill, though. His car failed inspection three times, so he is forced to do a pass-through penalty at the start. That means he will lose the lead draft and eventually go one lap down if the race stays under green flag conditions.
However, that has severely impacted only one car this year. That was when A.J. Allmendinger served a similar penalty at Martinsville, the smallest track on the circuit.
Instead, it’s likely Cassill benefits from a caution either before he gets lapped or after he gets lapped and is the only car one lap down, meaning he will get the free pass to get back on the lead lap.
GEICO 500 DraftKings DFS Roster Construction Tips
My recommendation is to have one or more of these five drivers I listed above in almost every single lineup. Eight of the last 10 optimal lineups at Talladega have had at least one driver starting 31st or worst, with 12 total drivers starting worse than 30th in those 10 races, for an average of 1.2 per race.
Don’t go crazy on these drivers because only a maximum of three have started 31st or worse in a single optimal lineup. Even then, one of those drivers was Denny Hamlin, a top-tier driver who started dead last in 40th.
A great optimizer rule would be to use at least one but no more than two drivers starting 31st or worse for the bulk of your lineups. You can then manually sprinkle in a few lineups that have zero or three drivers starting in this range to round out your multi-entry portfolio.
One other roster construction tip involved the drivers starting in the top half of the field. Over the last 10 Talladega races, only 22 drivers have started 19th or better. However, there has always been at least one, but no more than four in any single race.
GEICO 500 DraftKings DFS Fades
I’d also eliminate J.J. Yeley and B.J. McLeod almost entirely from the player pool. These cars are just too slow, and it’s likely my model is overestimating their chances of ending up in the optimal lineup.
Additionally, I’d mostly avoid Cody Ware, as he’s never finished better than 17th at a superspeedway race. I don’t mind sprinkling him into about 5% of your lineups because there’s always the chance he pulls off a career-best finish. It’s just quite unlikely.
GEICO 500 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
If you’ll notice, I’ve listed essentially every competent driver starting 22nd or worse, with the exception of one. That driver is Harrison Burton ($6500).
Burton ran very well in the Daytona 500, hanging out toward the front of the pack most of the first stage. An overly-aggressive push from Brad Keselowski at the end of the first stage spun him out, sparking the first of many multi-car incidents in the race.
Burton races for Wood Brother Racing, which has a partnership with Team Penske. That partnership came in handy for past drivers, as Ryan Blaney, Matt DiBenedetto, and the man this pick is named after, Paul Menard, all had cars that could lead these races.
