Tonight’s NASCAR Cup Series race on the dirt at Bristol promises to be an exciting affair (7:00 p.m. ET, FOX).
The Truck Series put on a great show, and with the way the Cup cars looked in final practice, we can expect more of the same.
Last year on the dirt, there was some mayhem, with 24 different cars being caught up in seven incidents. The Truck Series followed suit this year, with a cluster of late-race cautions to shake things up.
That means I’m looking to find some excellent pivot plays for middle and lower-tier drivers for my tournament picks.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, here are my NASCAR DFS picks for tonight’s Food City Dirt Race at Bristol.
Food City Dirt Race DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Ross Chastain ($8,500)
Chastain has been a wheelman all year, and I don’t expect this weekend to be any different. He jumped out to the lead in his heat race before losing it to Tyler Reddick on lap five.
He was still running quite strong until a late spin relegated him to last place in his qualifying heat.
That’s why he starts so far back, but he has the speed and the aggressiveness to run up front.
Todd Gilliland ($5,400)
Gilliland was my best value bet early in the week, and up to this point, he has delivered.
Gilliland ran inside the top 10 in final practice in nearly every metric. His strong showing vaulted him into the upper-mid tier of drivers for tonight’s race.
He got bottled up behind Chastain on the inside line on a mid-race restart in his 15-lap qualifying heat. That relegated him to a 23rd-place starting spot, but he has a car capable of running in the mid-teens, if not better.
That’s an incredible value at the low price of $5400.
Kyle Larson ($11,200)
I don’t care how expensive Larson is and that this race is only 250 laps. He was ridiculously fast in final practice, which will most closely approximate race conditions.
Larson was “untouchable,” according to his team on the long run. He did struggle to get by cars in the heat race, but passing, in general, was difficult as the track hadn’t rubbered in a ton, and the sun hadn’t fully set.
But when the lights come out, expect Larson to be among the fastest.
He should have, at worst, a top-three car. More than likely, however, he’ll be the man to beat.
Food City Dirt Race DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Tyler Reddick ($9,200)
The other option here for your tournament play is Christopher Bell, but I like the $1,600 discount we’re getting with Reddick.
Reddick also completely checked out on the competition in his heat, whereas it was slightly more difficult for Bell.
The nighttime conditions should favor Reddick. He was blazing fast late in final practice when he set the fastest five-, 10-, and 15-lap average.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,700)
Like Reddick, Stenhouse put up some incredibly fast times at the end of final practice. Stenhouse was second behind only Reddick in five- and 10-lap average in the late going.
In his heat race, he challenged for a top-three spot but ultimately wasn’t able to complete the pass and finished fourth. That’s what puts him in the 16th-place starting spot for tonight’s race.
His inability to pass in the heat doesn’t worry me. He’s incredibly aggressive, and the heat race came before sundown. Stenhouse should turn it on after sunset.
Aric Almirola ($6,800)
People won’t talk about Almirola when they think of dirt racing because he just doesn’t have much experience on it.
He ran poorly in his qualifying heat and didn’t impress last year.
That’s the perfect recipe for him to be under-utilized despite starting all the way back in 31st.
A couple of bright spots for Almirola:
- In final practice, he was faster than his teammate, Kevin Harvick, who is $1300 more expensive
- He turned in top-four times over 20-plus laps late in final practice, which most resembles race conditions
I don’t love him, but if 24 cars have incidents, and he’s not one of them, a solid result in the mid-teens is very possible.
Food City Dirt Race DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
If you’ve tuned into this space regularly, you’ll know the Paul Menard Pick of the Week has been on fire lately.
Hopefully, that trend continues with this week’s pick, Chris Buescher ($6,600).
Buescher starts a little too far forward for most people’s liking, taking off from the 15th spot. That will keep his usage down. In fact, if we look at his projected ownership, he comes in at 7.1%.
My model gives him a 12.5% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup, and that might be too low.
Buescher was happy with his car in his heat race and says he has a good handle on how the track will change. He has no reason to exaggerate his expectations, so we should take him at his word.
This is typical of NASCAR drivers. We should take most NASCAR drivers at their word, as they’ll typically say when they are struggling or when they feel great about their car.
Buescher was 13th in 10-lap average in final practice. If he can keep out of trouble, a top ten isn’t out of the question should several others fall by the wayside with problems.
