DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Dover: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Würth 400

Dover Motor Speedway plays host to Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race.

There should be plenty of uncertainty to take advantage of for several reasons. First, there’s rain in the forecast, so the potential of a rain-shortened race, or a race run over multiple days, is a real possibility.

Next, practice saw a few moments of mist, making practice times potentially misleading.

Finally, drivers were all complaining about the tire wear. Tires in practice were cording quickly thanks to the green race track. Expect there to be an early competition caution so teams can check tire-wear levels. If tires end up as an issue, that could create plenty of problems as well as several strategy opportunities.

As such, it’s probably a good week to think more contrarian than normal at Dover.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.

 

Dover DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

2-3 of Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, and Martin Truex Jr.: This is more a strategy play than anything, given Kyle Larson’s price point and the uncertainty in the race. You’ll see in my tournament section that, while I love Larson, I think a better avenue to playing him is to load up on him in tournaments.

With so much uncertainty, I want multiple avenues to dominator points in cash games, which raises our floor. By grabbing two or three of this quartet of drivers, we are able to do just that.

It helps that none of these drivers start higher than 12th, so they all offer place-differential opportunity as well as the chance to grab dominator points.

If you go the Larson route in cash games and he doesn’t get you the dominator points you need, you’ll wish you had a couple other higher-priced drivers able to get you those dominator points.

And if Larson does get the dominator points, you’ll have him in tournament formats where you can get different with the other drivers in your lineup.

Michael McDowell ($6600): The Front Row Motorspots drivers of Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland have overperformed their equipment this year, and now McDowell starts 32nd in a 36-car field.

The veteran McDowell finished 17th at the Monster Mile last year and has top-20 finishes in four of the five traditional ovals this year.

Austin Dillon is a potential pivot off of McDowell here, as the Richard Childress Racing driver starts shotgun on the field. My model likes McDowell just a bit better.

Corey LaJoie ($5000): This one is pretty simple. LaJoie is by far the highest-projected driver in points per dollar.

His 27th place starting position gives him ample safety, and he showed plenty of practice speed to believe he can move forward. Last year he finished 18th, and we’ve only seen more improvement from him this year. A top 15 isn’t out of the question.

Dover DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Kyle Larson ($11,500): Larson has led over 130 laps in four of the last eight Dover races and has been the best car so far in 2022.

I’d rather play him in tournament formats than cash games thanks to the hefty price tag and no guarantee he’ll sniff the front of the field by virtue of his 18th place starting position. At this price point, we really need the dominator points from him, so if we’re going to get them, I’d love to have them in tournament formats.

Larson also projects to be the must under-owned among the top nine drivers in salary, which I wasn’t expecting from my model, so there’s some sneaky leverage here despite the fact that he’s my highest-projected driver in every meaningful stat.

Larson also projects well on PrizePicks, where you can take the over on his 61.5 fantasy score if you like him for GPPs. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match,

Joey Logano ($8800): This just seems like your classic Joey Logano DFS spot. He’s pretty underrated this week, going off as long as 30-1 at some books to win. With all eyes on the Hendrick cars, plus drivers like Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and Kevin Harvick, Logano offers more upside than all but Larson per my model.

While his track history doesn’t include any wins, that’s not what we need from him. He just needs to bring the car home inside the top 10 to give lineups a good shot at ending up on top.

He’s done just that in five of the last seven here at Dover.

Aric Almirola ($6500): Almirola has sneaky upside at Dover, which is exactly what I want in tournament formats.

The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has led over 20 laps in two of his eight starts here. While the finishing results haven’t been there, that’s mostly a product of bad luck when he’s had a strong car.

That said, he’s still managed six finishes better than his 19th-place starting position in eight starts with the team, so it’s quite likely he ends up ahead of where he starts. That’s almost all you need from a driver with his price tag.

Talladega DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Last week I chose Austin Cindric ($6800) as my PMPOTW, and I’m going right back to the well here. For starters, here’s Cindric’s Dover finishes in the Xfinity series, in order: 9, 8, 6, 3, 2, 3, 1.

Look at that improvement over four seasons in the lower series, culminating in three straight podiums and a win.

DFS players may look at his lone Cup result, where Cindric finished dead last after crashing on lap 88 of last year’s race. But if practice is any indication (and it’s quite possible it’s totally meaningless), Cindric at least showed speed so far this weekend.

He fires off in the back half of the field, so there is some upside for the second-year driver if he manages to recapture his Xfinity form.