The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series wraps up its regular season with the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway (7:00 p.m. ET, NBC).
Superspeedway racing is inherently random, and as a result you should be focusing your efforts on finding inefficiencies in human behavior rather than trying to predict the finishing results.
As such, I’ll be making my NASCAR DFS picks based off of ownership projections, instead of fantasy-point projections.
I’ll give drivers I think you should be overweight on in tournaments, with the caveat that any driver in reasonable equipment is quite playable in DFS formats if they start in the back half of the field.
In the front half of the field, it’s still about finding the few gems that will be underplayed, while plenty of other drivers see way too much DFS usage.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for tonight’s Coke Zero 400 at Daytona.
Daytona DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
#StackTheBack: The hashtag #StackTheBack has been trending in NASCAR DFS circles on Twitter because people have various takes one way or the other about playing drivers that start in the back third of the field.
However, the hot takes all center around tournament play.
In cash games, it’s pretty widely accepted that you play the drivers starting in the back that are in good equipment.
There isn’t a single driver I’d exclude from this angle. Even B.J. McLeod and Cody Ware are playable. Last year, McLeod crossed the line in 11th place, while Josh Bilicki did the same in 10th. That’s solid enough for a cash-game lineup for drivers starting 33rd or worse!
If you want to get really crazy, Bubba Wallace will be a near-universal pick in cash games. But should he wreck going for the win and being aggressive to get into the playoffs, he could have a poor finish.
That might allow drivers like McLeod and Ware to plod their way to a solid finish, avoiding the likely mayhem in front of them.
Daytona DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Todd Gilliland and Harrison Burton: These two drivers are in very good Ford equipment, and both made impressive showings at the Daytona 500.
In Burton’s case, he was running inside the top 10 coming to the end of Stage 1 until Brad Keselowski dumped him from behind by being too aggressive with the bump draft.
Gilliland, meanwhile, steadily moved forward from a starting spot in the back third of the field only to see his day end 11 laps from the finish. Gilliland raced his way inside the top five at various points in the race, and impressively hung out inside the top 15 for over 70% of the laps he ran.
Both drivers project to be under 15% owned, yet my model gives them each over a 15% chance to end up in the optimal lineup.
Of the two, I prefer Gilliland if you aren’t building a mass multi-entry portfolio and instead sticking to single- or three-max entry.
Chase Briscoe: Briscoe starts one spot ahead of teammate Aric Almirola, and comes in $2100 more expensive. Add in Almirola’s superspeedway reputation as a two-time winner who also nearly won the Daytona 500 back in 2018, and we should see a significant discrepancy in ownership.
However, as we know, superspeedway racing is inherently random. My model gives Almirola and Briscoe nearly identical chances of ending up in the optimal lineup.
Yet I also project Almirola to garner 10% more ownership than Briscoe.
To gain leverage on the field, I certainly don’t mind if you flip these two, and use Briscoe 10% more than Almirola.
Daytona DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
I have a double PMPOTW special for you this week!
There are two drivers that I think will be forgotten about in DFS lineups compared to the chances they end up in the optimal lineup.
The first is Ty Dillon, who starts 25th. Among the smaller names and teams, people will gravitate toward Burton, Gilliland, Corey LaJoie, and Daniel Hemric from the back third of the field. That leaves the younger Dillon brother ripe for the picking.
My model thinks he’ll be in the optimal lineup nearly 19% of the time compared to only 12% ownership.
Moving well forward in the starting order, my second PMPOTW is Cole Custer.
He starts in the 15th position surrounded by monster names like Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric as well as playoff battlers Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex, Jr. in the starting order.
Custer will be the forgotten man in DFS lineups, as I project him for only 5% ownership. However, my model shows he’ll be in the optimal lineup nearly double that frequency. So while he’s not a smash play, you should have him in closer to 1 in 10 lineups, instead of 1 in 20 if you are mass-multi-entering.
