DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Darlington: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Goodyear 400

Darlington plays host to the 13th race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. Sunday’s race also marks the halfway point of the regular season.

Of those 13 races, four have already been raced under the intermediate package, and with many drivers making long practice runs, we have plenty of data to work with to evaluate drivers for our DFS lineups.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway.

 

Darlington DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Kyle Larson ($10,900): Larson stands out as the driver to play this week in my model as the driver that has the highest pts/sal in my projections among the expensive tier of drivers.

Larson absolutely owns Darlington, with finishes of second or third in five of the last eight races. That includes 683 laps led of a possible 2,788, or almost exactly 24.5% of the total laps. And if we look just at laps Larson has run (thanks to an early exit in this race last year), that number jumps to 26.2% of laps led since 2016.

Larson was extremely consistent on the long run, displaying very little falloff. He’ll be the guy to beat today.

Chase Elliott ($9600): I think we have to go with the driver who starts 21st and who posted the fastest practice times over five, 15, 20, and 25 consecutive laps.

Elliott does concern me a bit with his upside, so I love being underweight on him in tournaments, but he has such a high floor thanks to the place-differential potential he has starting in the back half of the field that we can’t ignore him in cash games.

Corey LaJoie ($5400): LaJoie starts in the back thanks to a poor qualifying effort, but his practice times were quite quick for a driver priced at his price point.

He was 10th in single-lap time, ninth in five-lap average, and still 17th over 20 consecutive laps out of 28 cars that ran that distance.

LaJoie has had some very strong runs this year on the intermediate package, picking up top-20 finishes in all four races to date. Look for a repeat of those efforts once again.

Darlington DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Ross Chastain ($9400): Chastain falls in third on the projected points-per-dollar chart when we look at ceiling, per my model.

The only two ahead of him are Larson and Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, William Byron. I prefer Chastain for two reasons.

First, he’s cheaper, allowing you to do more with your other roster positions. Second, he actually displayed slightly less tire falloff in practice than Byron, with 0.59 seconds per lap of falloff between his five- and 15-lap averages. By comparison, Byron fell off 0.808 seconds per lap in the same metric.

Chastain has massive upside at these steeply banked, high-wear tracks. He was battling Denny Hamlin for the lead in this race last year before a crash, then he followed that up with a top-five running position before problems hit him in the second Darlington race last year.

He also led the most laps at the other high-wear race earlier this year at Auto Club Speedway.

William Byron ($10,300): If we’re not going with Chastain, we should look to get Byron in our tournament lineups.

Byron has led the most laps at two of the four intermediate-package races this year, including the steeply banked track of Dover. Leading laps and scoring fastest laps will be key to an optimal lineup, and I strongly believe one of Byron or Chastain is going to factor into the winning lineup as long as they both avoid issues.

About Chastain and Byron:

If you’re multi-entering, I don’t think it’s wise to play them both together in a ton of lineups. It’s likely one or the other leads instead of both, meaning there’s some negative correlation here. I’d look to pair them with 1-2 of Truex, Larson and/or one of the other Toyota drivers.

Notably, my model likes both Byron and Chastain to be in the optimal lineup 6-8% more than their projected ownership, so both are solid tournament plays.

Austin Cindric ($5900): Cindric is also very cash-game worthy, but I love him in tournaments because a lot of people will gravitate toward LaJoie at $5400.

Cindric had very little falloff over the long run, coming in second among all drivers in falloff between 10 and 20 laps and fifth among those that ran up to 30 laps.

He was also fifth in raw speed over 30 consecutive laps out of 17 drivers that ran that distance in practice. Even over the shorter 10-lap distance, he was 15th out of 32 drivers.

Given that he starts 25th, he should move into the top half of the field at an ultra-bargain price.

Darlington DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

Ryan Preece ($6800): I’ll be straightforward with you all, and while I’m very much a math and numbers guy (and there are numbers to back this up), this is more of a total gut call than anything.

Preece starts 32nd and has ample place-differential potential, but I feel like people will overlook him thanks to his $6800 price tag. My model seems to agree, as it projects him for just 14% ownership compared to a 17.5% chance of being in the optimal lineup.

I don’t mind going up to or slightly beyond 20%, given that Preece also helps bake in a ton of safety, allowing you to cash at a higher rate even if you don’t hit the optimal lineup.

I think people will look to last year’s Darlington playoff race winner Erik Jones at $7100, as well as the aforementioned LaJoie, as primary options in the tier near or below Preece.

Additionally, drivers like Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson have a higher projected points per dollar than Preece, and Cindric was significantly faster than Preece for those who just look at single and 10-lap averages.

But I like Preece’s consistency, having the smallest tire falloff in practice of all drivers.