DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for COTA: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the first of six road-course races for the 2023 season. Circuit of the Americas (COTA) plays host to today’s 68-lap affair.

If we learned anything last year, it’s that the Toyotas had more tire falloff than the Chevys and Fords. Chevy won all six twisty tracks last year, and Chevy again looks set to bet the dominant manufacturer, as they claimed eight of the top 10 starting spots.

However, the talk of the town is the Toyota of Tyler Reddick. Reddick was ridiculously fast in practice. But that was over the first couple laps of a run. His tires started to fall off faster than those of his Chevy rivals, and even those of the Team Penske Fords.

While you should have Reddick in some of your DFS tournament portfolio, he’s going to be a great fade candidate. My model makes him the odds-on-favorite to win the race, yet it still puts him in the optimal DraftKings lineup just 15% of the time. I’m sure he’ll be in more lineups than that.

As for the rest of the field, I’ve got some thoughts…

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas.

COTA DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Ryan Blaney ($9100): Blaney torched his tires on the very first turn of his qualifying lap, which ruined his lap. That’s why he starts 38th. Blaney had very little tire falloff in practice, and he posted solid times toward the front of the field.

He’s easily the highest-projected driver in all metrics: floor, median, and ceiling. Lock him in.

Michael McDowell ($7100): McDowell is a fantastic road-course racer. He had a 7.6 average finish over the first five road-course races of 2022 before a 27th place finish at the Charlotte Roval.

This weekend, he’s also been solid in practice. Per HighLineBetting’s lap time chart, McDowell’s first lap on his second stint (after a yellow flag flew halfway through practice) was a 133.3, with his seventh lap coming in at 133.9. That’s consistently inside the top 12 on that stint.

Kevin Harvick ($8000): Despite some slow practice times and a poor qualifying effort, I’m totally comfortable backing Harvick here. Harvick is arguably the most consistent driver in the series, often finishing well ahead of the speed his car has.

I’m looking for that again here. Outside of the Indy road course, where he had problems, Harvick had a 7.8 average finish at the road course races last year. He knows how to get it done at these tracks, and he starts in a nice, safe 29th-place starting spot.

COTA DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Austin Cindric ($8800): I absolutely love Cindric this weekend. So much so, that he’s one of two drivers I’ve bet to win the race outright after practice and qualifying.

Cindric, and all of the Penske cars, displayed absolutely no tire falloff in practice. In fact, Cindric was so consistent that his fourth and fifth laps in practice combined for 2.4 seconds faster than Tyler Reddick’s fourth and fifth laps.

Circuit of the Americas is also a fantastic track for Cindric. He had the fourth-best average green-flag speed in last year’s race, and two years ago he was leading in the dry before fading as the rain came.

Given the practice speed and consistency, along with his track history and starting position, it’s quite possible Cindric wins this.

Alex Bowman ($8600): I mentioned Cindric is one of two drivers I bet outright to win the race after practice and qualifying. The other: Alex Bowman.

Like Cindric, Bowman is very good at COTA. Bowman took home second place last year while running third in green-flag speed in that race. Bowman also finished eighth in the rain-shortened race of 2021. Bowman also challenged for the win late in the Truck race last year.

Now he gets crew chief Blake Harris, and all Harris did was lead Michael McDowell to a career year last year, including an average finish of 7.6 over the first five road-course races of the year in 2022.

Bowman also had the most consistent car in practice, with the lowest standard deviation in lap times.

Chase Briscoe ($8300): I love love love Chase Briscoe in tournaments, and I don’t really care what my model projects his usage for.

Briscoe’s practice times were so misleading that I think there’s a solid chance he isn’t used as much as my ownership model projects.

I also think my performance model is undervaluing him, because it’s hard to account for the fact that he only made his practice laps on the first stint, when the track was slower.

Briscoe’s didn’t run a second stint, missing out on posting lap times when the track sped up by nearly 0.8 seconds. Instead, using my weighted FLAGS metric, we see Briscoe was actually about the 15th best car in practice.

He’s also a damn good road-course racer who has been in contention for multiple wins in his career. Play his upside in tournament formats.