DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for COTA: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is the site of the first road-course race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Season.

This year, stage break cautions are being re-introduced, bringing a bit of a twist to DFS strategy, as some drivers will certainly be on what we call the optimal strategy where they pit just before the final-stage caution in order to have the best track position heading into the last stage.

Other drivers may opt for stage points, and then pit under the stage yellow, cycling them to the back of the field, meaning they’ll have to drive their way through the field back to the front in order to finish well.

Plus, with only 68 laps scheduled, there aren’t very many dominator points available, so our primary focus will be on the combination of finishing position and place differential, adjusting of course for a driver’s salary.

With that in mind, we still want to keep mind of the fact that COTA does tend to get crazy at the end, making pivot and contrarian plays certainly possible.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA.

COTA DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

For cash games, we want to apply the strategy I outlined at the top, focusing on the combination of finishing position and place differential while adjusting for salary.

However, here we don’t need to be worried about being contrarian or pivoting. We’re just trying to put our best lineup possible out there.

To raise our floor, median, and ceiling, I recommend going with three upside drivers that start outside the top-10: Kyle Larson ($10,200), Shane van Gisbergen ($9500), and A.J. Allmendinger ($8800).

Yes, that does mean I’m not playing the front trio, and betting favorites, William Byron, Ty Gibbs, and Tyler Reddick in cash games, but for good reason.

To play these guys in cash games, we need to both hope they rack up some of the few available dominator points and get a finishing position inside the top three. And if one of these drivers is leading, the other two aren’t, so they are negatively correlated.

That lowers both our floor and ceiling, so at most we need to pick one of these guys and honestly, while I think Ty Gibbs has the best car, I know that can change throughout the race, especially with Tyler Reddick who is widely considered the best road-course racer in NASCAR right now, and polesitter William Byron starting ahead of Gibbs.

Instead, let’s just grab the place differential of three guys who should contend for the top five, or even the race win.

From there, you can round out your cash games with cheaper place-differential plays. My favorite is Chase Briscoe ($7100), who put up a top-15 practice time but starts 32nd.

COTA DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy

In tournaments, I absolutely do recommend selecting one of Ty Gibbs ($8700), Tyler Reddick ($10,500), or William Byron ($9700) in a solid portion of your portfolio. But I want to emphasize again — these drivers are negatively correlated, because if one is leading, the others aren’t.

That means in lineups where I’m playing at least one of these drivers, it’ll typically be exactly one of these drivers. In a very small percentage I can see playing two, as it’s possible a couple of them trade the lead and finish inside the top three, but in no cases would I ever play all three.

My order of preference would be Gibbs, Reddick, then Byron from this trio.

Another driver who really caught my eye when making hand builds is Kyle Busch ($9200). I think my ownership projection on him is too low, but I doubt it’ll also be through the roof as there are so many good drivers that will draw plenty of attention that I expect Rowdy to stay under 20%.

Busch has solid results at COTA and put up the sixth-fastest, single-lap time in practice. He’s a nice pivot off the chalkier Larson, Allmendinger, and van Gisbergen that I mentioned in the cash-game section.

I do like Alex Bowman, but I think he’ll be a popular tournament play given his track history and third-fastest practice lap, so while you should definitely have him in your portfolio, I prefer a pivot to Austin Cindric ($7200). Cindric should be on the optimal strategy, given this is one of his best opportunities to rack up a win that would lock him into the playoffs, while there’s more of a chance Bowman uses the suboptimal stage points strategy.

That could elevate Cindric ahead of Bowman in the all-important final stage. Both have similarly competitive track history, and Cindric’s overall practice times were right with Bowman’s. Cindric will come at a price discount, and likely a usage discount.

COTA DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

When looking at projected ceiling adjusted for salary, I was surprised to see Ryan Preece ($5600) pop in my model.

He projects for sub-10% usage, but he had a single-lap practice time (22nd) that was ahead of where he starts (24th), and his overall lap average in practice was 10th.

Preece is going to be one of those drivers that goes overlooked in the cheap range for other drivers starting farther back like Zane Smith (who is also a totally fine, but chalkier play in all formats).

In Preece’s three non-DNF road course finishes last year, he had finishes of 17th, 13th, and 11th … those are super solid for a sub-10% driver at a cheap price.