This Sunday, the 2022 NASCAR season kicks off with the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum. Yes, you read that right. NASCAR has built a quarter-mile track inside the L.A. Coliseum.
This preseason exhibition race is going to have a unique format. I won’t highlight the full details, but thanks to four heat races and two last-chance races, you’ll want to pay attention during the whole Sunday time window of on-track activity (starting at 3 p.m. ET on FOX). These races are not only going to determine which 23 drivers of the 36 car entry list will actually make the main event (6 p.m. ET, FOX), but they will also give you a chance to visually scout the race.
By watching the heat and last chance races, you can get answer to questions such as: which drivers are fast? How difficult will passing be? How important is track position? The answers to these questions are extremely important because DraftKings is locking lineups just in time for the main event. That helps us avoid having to pick drivers that may miss the main event. It also lets us know where drivers will start if they do make the main event.
In other words, answering those questions is a key guide toward setting solid DFS lineups for the Busch Light Clash main event.
DraftKings Scoring
Here’s a quick refresher for the new players or returning players who are just getting back up to speed after a full offseason. DraftKings has four main components to its NASCAR DFS scoring calculation.
- Finishing position
- Place differential
- Fastest Laps
- Laps Led
Finishing position is easy; the further forward a driver finishes, the more points he will score. In the case of the Busch Light Clash main event, the worst a driver can finish is 23rd, netting them at least 19 finishing position points.
Place differential is also a simple calculation. It’s the difference between starting position and finishing position. So a driver that starts 10th and finishes third gets seven place differential points (10 – 3 = 7). That means a driver starting dead last in the main event (23rd) can net up to 22 place differential points for winning. If this driver achieves that, they will score 45 points for finishing first, and 22 place differential points, for a total of 67 points just in these two categories! Thus, you can see just how important it is to pick drivers that come from mid-pack or back that have a chance to finish toward the front.
At most tracks, I’d treat fastest laps and laps led pretty similarly and call them “dominator” points. That’s because these points are typically accrued in bulk by drivers that dominate the race. However, I believe the Clash will be an exception to the rule because of how short and tight the track will be.
Each fastest lap counts as 0.45 points, and each lap led is 0.25 points. With a 150-lap main event, that means there are 67.5 fastest lap, and 37.5 lap-led points up for grabs. In regards to fastest laps, I believe the fact that this racetrack is only 0.25 miles in length with tight turns means the leader may get held up in traffic frequently. That means fastest laps may get somewhat decoupled from laps led. Paying attention to the heat and last chance races will help us see which drivers have been fast, so we can add them into our lineup to potentially grab valuable fastest lap points.
With the format and scoring out of the way, let’s figure out how to best set lineups for the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum.
DFS Lineup Strategy
Depending on how the heat races go, I can see two viable strategies for building tournament lineups.
Scenario 1 – Difficult to pass, calm racing
This is the scenario I do not expect to play out. However, we just don’t know how these drivers will handle this new track and the debut of the Next-Gen car.
Small, flat tracks with tight layouts are notoriously difficult to pass on. To make a move, very often, drivers will have to use the bumper and get a little aggressive. It’s highly likely that passing will be difficult, but I find it far less likely that the car and driver combination will make this race calm.
However, if the heat and last chance races are particularly tame affairs, we’ll have to keep mental note of that for the main event. In this scenario, you’ll want to pick the six fastest drivers that fit under the $50,000 salary cap with only minimal regard for starting position. If there are two you are debating on, definitely pick the one starting the main event farther back for added place differential potential.
However, in this scenario, we are banking on racking up finishing position and fastest lap points. If it’s hard to pass and passes just aren’t happening, then you’ll essentially want the fastest drivers. Those 0.45 fastest lap points will add up quickly, and any pass they do make is going to be monumental because passing will be hard. These drivers will tend to start up front anyway, thanks to speed in qualifying and the preliminary races.
In case one or two do start toward the back, you’ll still have several others that are toward the front holding on to that all-important track position, while the ones starting toward the rear pick off a few added place differential points for you.
Scenario 2 – Chaos
Let’s be real, though. The vast majority of the industry expects this to be a wild race. We have a new car, a new track, and exhibition status. Everyone’s going for it all.
The new car was created to increase competitive racing. Short-track racing is known for bumping and banging. The winner takes home a big payday. Drivers won’t get punished in the point standings for crashing out because this is an exhibition. In other words, chaos is the far likelier outcome.
Under this scenario, the strategy revolves around place differential and finding the hidden gem.
Sure, you’re still going to want fast cars, but these will also be the drivers that DFS players gravitate toward. If, for example, Ryan Preece is just lighting the world on fire with his short, flat-track experience, then expect DFS players to be all over him at his $5200 salary. And if you’re multi-entering, you’ll still want Preece in a portion of your lineups. However, he might be the perfect driver to be underweight on should he get collected in the chaos.
Instead, look for a driver starting farther back in the field that could hang in the preliminary races but didn’t necessarily make noise. As they quietly continue on keeping pace but not getting involved in incidents or showing flashy speed, they’ll constantly gain positions just by passing drivers who get collected in wrecks.
Who knows, maybe this driver makes a late-race pass or two and gets himself in position for a solid finish near the front. Suddenly, this driver used in only 15% of lineups is now in the winning lineup.
In NASCAR DFS, chaos means place differential and fading the chalk.
Stats to Use
Finally, while driver evaluation will be hard under these unique circumstances, it’s not impossible. Some drivers are better short flat-track drivers than others.
Definitely take note of a driver’s history at New Hampshire, Richmond, and especially Martinsville. These three tracks will be most closely (although still loosely) comparable to the L.A. Coliseum track.
Look at how teammates are performing. Are all the Stewart-Haas drivers moving forward? This could mean they hit on the new car sooner than other teams.
Some people may suggest to look at practice times. I wouldn’t disregard them completely, but I’m putting very little weight on them. Each driver will get three eight-minute practice sessions. Adjustments will come fast and furious. If anything, the last session for each driver may mean the most because this will be the speed after two sets of adjustments.
Instead, I’d rather see how each car races. That’s why actively watching each heat will be so important.
NASCAR in 2022
I won’t be building a predictive model for The Clash. There’s simply no way to model it under such unique and extraordinary circumstances.
However, I will be tweeting out DFS strategy and picks as the preliminary events unfold, so make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Going forward, I will have model projections in our NASCAR Player Models for all points paying races for all three NASCAR national series (Cup, Xfinity, and Trucks). Sign up today to get access all year to the FantasyLabs NASCAR projections and the Lineup Optimizer.
I’ll have articles all year with strategy, picks, and more.
Good luck with your Clash lineups, and enjoy the 2022 season. It’s going to be a fun ride!
