The 2022 PGA season is upon us, and it kicks off as usual in Hawaii with the Tournament of Champions. There were 39 TOUR winners last season, and one special exemption was provided to Tokyo Gold Medalist Xander Schauffele. This week we will see 38 of those players tee it up as Rory McIlroy opted out of the event, and on Tuesday, Cameron Champ tested positive for COVID and will have to miss the event. While the field is small, it is high class for this no-cut event on the coast of Maui.
World No. 1 Jon Rahm headlines the field set to tee it up at The Plantation Course at Kapalua as he is part of the eight players in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings that will play this week. Jordan Spieth is not one of those eight, but he makes his first trip back to the Sentry TOC since 2018 and will be paired with good friend Justin Thomas on Thursday.
DraftKings is buying into the excitement of the start of 2022 PGA TOUR golf as they have rolled out the Season Tee Off GPP with a $500,000 prize pool and $100,000 of that going to first. The $15 tournament is certainly top-heavy, with 25% of the overall pool going to first, and with a small field and no cut, we will really have to work to be unique this week. These are the weeks we see a ton of duplicated lineups, and there will always be a couple where literally hundreds could duplicate the exact same six golfers. This article will be focused on building for this GPP.
In order to prep and get all the information you need, we have you covered here between FantasyLabs and GolfBet at Action Network. I always like to start my week with Matt Vincenzi’s course fit article, where he breaks down the key stats to target for the week and provides some picks for each metric and price range. Next, Landon Silinsky provides his cash game article that can help us to understand where the safe builds may be this week and give us a core of players to consider as pieces to GPP builds.
As you get into your lineup making this week, you will see we have some new models here at FantasyLabs. We have added the Bailey Model, (made by Senior Editor Justin Bailey) which will be a core resource for my article each week as it will be tailored to each event. There is also an added Strokes Gained Model putting specific weight around the Strokes Gained Metrics, as well as a Vegas-Heavy Model, which focuses on how the sportsbooks rate the players during that week.
Now that all of that has been covered let’s get into the plays for the week. In a small field, no-cut event like this, one thing stands out as more important than nearly everything else, ownership. I will be heavily focused on where ownership is coming together this week and looking to zig while others zag. Leaving money on the table is a good start to that process and something I will employ for GPPs.
Note: This piece uses Fanshare Ownership Projections (available in our marketplace), which may change after publication. Consult the Player Models for updates.
Top Tier ($9,000-$11,000)
Collin Morikawa ($10,800 DraftKings)
It is hard to go wrong at the top of the board this week, so I will do what I can to be different. Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau rate out as the lowest owned of the five players in the five-figure price range so far this week. They are both currently listed around 20% projected ownership per Fanshare Sports. I’ll lean to Morikawa, who sits right in between Jon Rahm and course history star Justin Thomas. I think he ultimately is the most overlooked of this bunch, which seems crazy with his pedigree.
Morikawa has played in this event twice, finishing T7 both of the last two years. He has been a model of consistency in those two tournaments, gaining 6.3 and 5.7 strokes tee-to-green while losing 0.4 strokes putting in both events. Collin actually showed an upward trend with the flat stick last year as he lost 2.7 strokes to the field, putting in the opening round, then climbed back with three straight positive rounds.
I am hopeful that may be a sign of him figuring things out at Kapalua, and with his elite iron play on these huge greens, there is no reason to think he can’t compete for the win.
Sam Burns ($9,100 DraftKings)
The narrative of the week will be all about how first-timers struggle at this tournament. Sam Burns qualifies in that category, but the way he has played over the last 12 months doesn’t qualify him as a standard first-timer at any event. Burns captured his first win last year at the Valspar, then proceeded to post six top 10s, including another victory, across his final nine events from August through the fall swing.
Bermuda Burns, as he is affectionately known, will see his preferred bermudagrass greens this week, and if he can be a quick learner to figure out the winds and elevations, he made a lot of sense at this course. The narrative is pushing a bit too hard on ownership as Burns is projected to be the lowest rostered player in this entire tier.
Mid Tier ($7,600-$8,900)
Cameron Smith ($8,300 DraftKings)
I am right there with Matt Vincenzi this week around Hideki Matsuyama, he seems to be coming in under the radar, and that appears to be playing out in DFS as well. I mention him to highlight how much I like him as well, though I am giving this next spot to Cameron Smith because he rates a bit better in the Bailey Model and is at a cheaper price.
The two players are actually fairly similar and fit nicely with my top-end play of Morikawa as it is their elite approach play that has them standing out. Smith also gets the edge because he is a reliably strong putter and a guy that I expect to show great improvement from his T24 finish last year. The Australian should be a great fit to this course as his squirrely driver is mitigated by the huge fairways at The Plantation Course, and his elite game after the drive will be able to shine this week.
Patrick Reed ($7,900 DraftKings)
My pick to win this week doesn’t come in with much of an ownership discount, but I think it will ultimately be good chalk if he stays in the 20% range as currently projected by Fanshare. Reed is the exact style of tee-to-green player that I want this week. Similar to Cam Smith, the concerns with his driver are not as big of a factor at Kapalua. Reed is an elite player when he is on with his irons, but also has one of the best short games on TOUR, which will come into play across several short par 4s this week as well as with any missed greens.
Reed has a stellar history at this event, but it may be up and down just enough to keep his ownership in check. I’ll keep an eye on that number as the week progresses towards Thursday afternoon lock, but for now, I plan to have a healthy dose of Patrick Reed.
Value ($7,500 and Under)
Marc Leishman ($7,500 DraftKings)
Australian Marc Leishman checks in as my second best bet this week, and I will look to fit him into my DFS lineups for the TOC as well. He’s going to be popular for this price range, and I will make sure to be careful as to who I am willing to pair him with in lineups because at over 20% rostership, he is going to be a fit for many others.
My play on Leishman is one where I love his fit for the course, which he has shown to be true over a number of appearances, including two top 10s in his last three trips. I also believe he is set for a strong year after he found his way back from an abysmal 2020 to finally showing he was back on his game to end last season and on into the fall swing. I like the value on Leishman this week, and I’ll eat some of the ownership to get there.
Seamus Power ($6,600 DraftKings)
If I asked you who the top 10 players in birdie or better percentage were over the last six months of golf, I doubt you would’ve gotten to Seamus Power in that group, but the Irishman ranks sixth in that metric. When I am looking for players down in this range, I want scorers this week because even if they finish outside of the top 10, they may be able to score their way into being a part of the optimal lineup.
Power has shown an ability to score, and with the guaranteed four rounds, I know I will get 72 holes of that scoring ability to help my lineups.
