The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR finishes up its Hawaii swing this week as Waialae Country Club hosts the Sony Open. WCC is a short par-70, measuring at 7,000 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Webb Simpson ($10,500 DraftKings)
By now, we know to play Webb on Webb tracks. Waialae would certainly qualify, as across his past six starts, he’s finished T-13, T-13, T-13, T-4, 3rd, T-4. There’s not really a ton else to say here. Webb is deadly accurate off-the-tee and remains one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR, especially on Bermuda greens. He simply tears up shorter coastal tracks, ranking No. 1 in this field in total strokes gained per round on comp courses.
He’s not cheap, but there’s no one in this field more likely to post a top-10 finish this week, making Webb one of the best cash game plays on the board.
Corey Conners ($9,600 DraftKings)
Conners is one of the purest ball-strikers on the planet and has been for quite some time now. He’s finally putting at an adequate level, which has led to plenty of high finishes over the past calendar year. This will be his fourth start in Honolulu, having gone T-12, T-3 in his previous two. His lack of distance off the tee will not hinder him this week, as Waialae plays at just 7,000 yards.
I fully expect Conners to take the next step and win multiple times on TOUR this year. He is priced very fairly on DraftKings this week, and if you don’t feel like paying all the way up for Webb, he’s quite a strong consolation prize.
Russell Henley ($8,400 DraftKings)
Henley is by far the most misplaced player in this field, and it’s not really close. He should be priced in the mid-$9,000 range in a field like this. He’s one of the best iron players on TOUR and is a great Bermuda putter. He also won this event back in 2013 and has three additional top-17 finishes since then as well.
Henley has four top-25s in his last five starts and ranks fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, second in SG: Ball-Striking, and seventh in total strokes gained in this field across his past 16 rounds. He’s locked in right and is the best play on the board this week across all formats. If you’re not playing Henley in cash games, you might need to reevaluate your process.
Maverick McNealy ($8,300 DraftKings)
McNealy is a rising star on TOUR and seems to be entering his prime at age 26. He’s posted nine top-25 finishes across his past 14 starts, including a T-11 at Mayakoba and a runner-up at the Fortinet back in September. He ranks 11th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in total strokes gained across his past 48 rounds.
His top 20 and make the cut odds are in line with guys priced $1,000 more than him, making him quite a strong value this week.
Seamus Power ($8,100 DraftKings)
Power has come into his own over the past six months, posting 10 top-20 finishes across his past 17 starts, which includes his breakthrough win at the Barbasol back in July. I keep waiting for him to slow down and turn back into his former self, but it seems those days are over. Last week at the Tournament of Champions (a loaded field), he finished T-15 after a final round 66.
The Irishman has not had a ton of success at Waialae in his career, but as previously stated, he is a totally different player now. Much like Russell Henley and Mav McNealy, Power’s make-the-cut and top-20 odds are not in line with his DraftKing’s salary, making him a strong bargain this week as well.
Charles Howell III ($8,000 DraftKings)
Chuckie Three Sticks has been a fixture on TOUR for more than a decade now and seemingly has great course history at plenty of tracks in the PGA rotation. None better than his history at Waialae, however, as he’s made the cut each of his past 10 trips to Honolulu, posting five top-8 finishes in that stretch with three additional top 20s.
He was not the reliable cut-maker last season that he’s been in previous years, but he played pretty well this past fall, making three of four cuts, capped by a T-16 his last time out at the RSM. The veteran ranks 10th in this field in total strokes gained across his past 16 rounds, and you know will be fired up this week after watching his Georgia Bulldogs win the National Championship Monday night.
Cameron Davis ($8,000 DraftKings)
I am extremely bullish on Cam Davis moving forward, as guys who make as many birdies as him seem to hang around on TOUR for quite a while. He got his maiden victory this past summer at the Rocket Mortgage and has since been on a bit of a hangover. However, he came to life last week at the Tournament of Champions, finishing in a tie for 10th after making 24 birdies and two eagles.
The Aussie has some pretty decent history at this event, going T-31, T-9 in his previous two trips. He also ranks ninth in this field in total birdies across his past 48 rounds, which will come in super handy this week if the winds do not pick up. He’s firmly in play for cash games.
Value Plays
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,800 DraftKings)
Bez is a cut-making machine who gets by with his elite short game. He’s one of the best putters in the world and ranks No.1 in this field in SG: Putting per round on Bermuda greens. He’s never seen Waialae, but his skill set fits pretty well here, and I would be surprised to see him not make the weekend here.
Most people are not aware of this, but Bezuidenhout is actually the 48th ranked player in the world and has four worldwide career victories. A top 25 is firmly within his range of outcomes this week, and at just $7,800 on DraftKings, he fits in almost any build.
Joel Dahmen ($7,600 DraftKings)
Dahmen had been playing some great golf before last week’s subpar finish. However, he still made 24 birdies at Kapalua, so we can simply look the other way on that one. Before that, he had posted four top 30s across his previous five starts, including a T-5 in Houston.
Dahmen has a good history at Waialae, making all three of his cuts with a pair of top 25s. He ranks ninth in this field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds and should almost certainly be priced higher than $7,600 this week, making him a pretty strong value play.
