The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Monterey, California, this week as the Pebble Beach Golf Links hosts the AT&T Pebble Open Pro-Am. There will be three courses in play this week, and in addition to Pebble, we’ll see Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula. All three courses are under 7,100 yards, and all feature poa greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Patrick Cantlay ($11,200 DraftKings)
This one should not be that difficult, as Cantlay is far and away the best player in this field, sitting at No.4 in the world rankings. He obviously ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over his past 48 rounds while sitting a very mediocre second in SG: T2G, OTT, and Ball-Striking. We have a 54-hole cut this week, meaning there’s even more incentive to jam in the best player in the field, much like we saw two weeks ago at the AMEX.
Cantlay has three top-11 finishes at this event, including his T-3 here last year. He’s a California kid who’s currently at the peak of his powers. He’s the odds on favorite this week, and with the field being as weak as it is, he could run away with this event. I will not be tempting fate in this spot, and neither should you. Start your cash game teams with the 2021 FedExCup champion and figure out the rest later.
Maverick McNealy ($9,800 DraftKings)
Mav McNealy is quickly becoming one of my favorite players on the PGA TOUR, and I fully believe 2022 will be his breakthrough season. Over his past 48 rounds in this field, he ranks eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth off-the-tee, 36th in putting, and sixth in Total Strokes Gained. He’s a quietly elite player
His history at Pebble Beach is outstanding as well, posting a T-5 in 2020 before finishing runner-up to Daniel Berger last season. This would be the type of field that he should dominate, which is even less imposing now with the withdrawal of Will Zalatoris. I am slightly worried about Daniel Bergers’ back injury, and there’s something about Jordan Spieth and Jason Day that I do not trust at these high price tags. McNealy gets the nod for me this week over Justin Rose, and pairing him with Patrick Cantlay seems like a no-brainer.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,200 DraftKings)
Fitz is someone who I just cannot quit. He dominates the Euro Tour but, for some reason, has yet to put it all together on the PGA TOUR yet. However, I expect that to change very soon as he’s simply too talented. He doesn’t boast the best history at this event, going T-60, MC in two starts, but he did post a T-12 at the 2019 U.S Open, which was held at Pebble.
We love targeting Fitz at shorter courses where he can put his elite putting and short game on display. We have yet to see him this season which caused DraftKing’s to price him down in his first start. He ranks seventh in this field in total strokes gained across his past 48 rounds, and I fully expect him to play well in this spot. He can easily be paired with Cantlay as well.
Value Plays
Nick Taylor ($7,300 DraftKings)
Taylor is a former winner at this event and has posted strong finishes in the majority of his starts at Pebble Beach. He will not blow you away with his ball-striking but is a really good putter who boasts a strong short game. I do not understand what DraftKings was thinking with this price tag either, as Taylor is coming off four consecutive made cuts with four top-40 finishes in that stretch.
As previously stated, there is nothing sexy about playing Taylor. Still, he plays pretty well in California overall and boasts great history here, making him a really solid cash game option this week.
Matthew NeSmith ($7,300 DraftKings)
NeSmith is quietly one of the better approach players on the PGA TOUR, and no one is aware. He ranked 11th in SG: Approach last season behind names such as Collin Morikawa, John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Paul Casey, Corey Conners, and Daniel Berger. He ranks eighth in this field in that category over his past 48 rounds, which will come in quite handy with the very small greens we have at Pebble Beach this week.
In two starts here, he’s gone T-11 and T-16 and is coming off a very respectable T-34 last week at Torrey. Getting this elite of an iron player with good course history at this bargain bin price seems like a no-brainer in cash.
Troy Merritt ($7,200 DraftKings)
Merritt started his career with four consecutive missed cuts at this event before going T-8, T-25, T-16 over his past three. Outside of a couple missed cuts, he’s been very strong of late, posting top-30 finishes at Mayakoba, the ZOZO, and the RSM. His ball-striking has been the catalyst for him of late, as he ranks 10th off-the-tee and 32nd on approach over his past eight rounds in this field.
With a three-round cut this week, we need to be jamming in multiple studs up top and taking chances on birdie makers with good course history like Merritt in the lower $7k range. You can certainly do worse here.
Scott Stallings ($7,100 DraftKings)
Stallings loves Pebble Beach, having posted finishes of T-14, 7th, 3rd, T-30 in four of his past five trips. He’s certainly not a paragon of consistency, but on weeks when he plays well, he really pops. During the fall, he posted a pair of top-six finishes.
Stallings also boasts some of the starkest putting splits in this field, as he’s a full half stroke per round better on Poa than other surfaces. He shot a final-round 66 on the South Course at Torrey Pines, gaining a whopping 4.8 strokes tee-to-green in the process. I like him to keep it rolling this week at a course he’s extremely comfortable at, while his price helps us jam in the studs we want up top.
