In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 18 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Kyler Murray (2nd)
- Taysom Hill (5th)
- Tyler Huntley (28th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-16.5) vs. New York Jets (43.5 total)
Fortunately for DFS players, the AFC East is still up in the air. Buffalo controls their own destiny and only has to get through the Jets to secure the division crown – and a home game in the first round of the playoffs.
That means we should see our usual dose of Allen in this one, at least until this game gets out of hand. Even if it does, there’s a good chance we see multiple Allen touchdowns before we get there.
At this point in the season, we all know how awful the Jets defense is. They’re the second-worst team in our models in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks, despite ranking bottom-10 in pass rate against. From a DVOA standpoint, they’ve improved slightly – now ranking 31st against the pass.
So we have motivation and matchup for Allen. We also have Vegas pointing us his way. The Bills have the highest implied team total on the slate this week, at 30. Allen has accounted for just under 75% of the Bills’ total touchdowns this season. With the Bills expected to score roughly for of them, that adds up to a solid fantasy day.
Allen is our highest projected quarterback this week, leading both sites in median and ceiling projections. He’s expensive, so rostering Allen is definitely a bet on him having a monster day – which might require some help from the Jets offense to keep him involved. Still, he’s the safest play this week by a long shot, particularly on FanDuel. He’s the unanimous leader in all of our Pro Models there.
Kyler Murray ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (48 total)
Besides Allen, Murray is arguably the only other high-end quarterback with a lot to play for this week. His Cardinals need a win (and a Rams loss) to clinch the NFC West. Like Allen, that should mean we see the usual Cardinals offense at full effect here.
On the other hand, the usual Cardinals offense has been lacking since the loss of DeAndre Hopkins. They’ve averaged under 18 points per game over the last three weeks, including an embarrassing loss to the (then) one-win Lions. That explains why Murray is behind Allen in our projections this week.
There’s certainly room for optimism, though. Murray scored at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last two weeks. That came against the Cowboys and Colts, two top-eight defenses by DVOA. This week he takes on a Seattle team that is not only much worse – ranking 25h overall – but also a significant run funnel. They rank eighth against the run but 27th against the pass on the season.
Seattle also has much less to play for than the Cardinals this week, calling their motivation into question. Particularly for a veteran team that made the playoffs the three previous seasons, it’s hard to see Seattle getting up for this one. This motivational discrepancy certainly can’t hurt the Cardinals offense (in general) and Murray in particular.
Like Allen, Murray is a rare safe pick here in the league’s inaugural Week 18. He’s significantly cheaper on DraftKings as well. He leads our Cash Game Model there.
Taysom Hill ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-4) at Atlanta Falcons (40)
The Saints have won three of their last four, keeping their postseason hopes alive heading into this one. They need some help from San Francisco, but first, they need to take care of business against the Falcons. Their chance to do so largely depends on Hill.
Not coincidentally, the Saints’ only loss in their last four came without Hill at quarterback. They’re 3-0 in his last three starts, with Hill contributing most effectively with his legs. (He has two rushing touchdowns but only one passing touchdown in his past three starts. That’s not entirely his fault given the lack of talent New Orleans has at wide receiver, but that won’t be changing in Week 18 either.)
Hill has been inconsistent as a fantasy asset in that time frame. He has DraftKings totals of 26, 17, and 9 points. However, much of that has to do with the matchups he’s had. His single-digit performance came against a stout Bucs defense. Carolina ranks middle of the pack in DVOA (12th) and allowed Hill his 17-point game. It was the lowly Jets that allowed his biggest output in this span.
This week he faces the Falcons – the league’s 29th ranked defense. Oddsmakers expect the Saints to find some offensive success here, giving them a 22-point team total. That’s a good sign for Hill, who’s led the Saints over 20 points in only one start this season (against – you guessed it – the Jets).
While his salary has crept up to the point of him not being a no-brainer, it’s still fairly reasonable for a dual-threat quarterback in a juicy matchup. Hill ranks top-five in median and ceiling projections on DraftKings this week. He’s a better value there, with a 58% Bargain Rating. He leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings for Week 18.
Tyler Huntley ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (42 total)
If he draws the start again, Huntley is in a similar position as Hill – at a moderate savings. Currently, Chris Raybon has starter Lamar Jackson ranked ahead of Huntley, suggesting that Raybon believes Jackson will play this week. Sean Koerner (who powers the projections in our models) has Huntley ranked as his eighth-best quarterback on the week, though.
Assuming he plays, though, Huntley is too cheap for a player with his upside. He torched the Packers for over 35 DraftKings points in Week 15 before missing time with COVID. While he struggled upon his return to the lineup, that’s not uncommon for players recovering from the COVID list. It also came against the Rams, who feature a much tougher defense than Pittsburgh does.
Motivation levels will be a factor in this one, though. Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh can still make the playoffs, but both teams need the Colts to lose to the Jaguars for that to happen, which is unlikely (the Colts are 15.5-point favorites.) Still, they’ll want to make sure they handle business just in case something crazy happens.
Huntley is the leader in two of our Pro Models on DraftKings. He’s also the Pts/Sal leader there, reflecting his enormous value in this one.
(If it is Jackson, he’s an interesting play here too. Though we’d have to question his rushing ability, given his extended absence from an ankle injury. If I were the Ravens, I’d prefer Huntley to an immobile Jackson, but we can never be sure with NFL coaches, so an active Jackson doesn’t necessarily mean a healthy Jackson.)
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Matthew Stafford ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (44 total)
The Rams presently lead the NFC West but need a win this week to clinch the division and a home playoff game. That should mean full effort from the Rams here, who have a tough (and motivated) 49ers team across from them. Additionally, there’s some Cooper Kupp record chasing at play here as well. Kupp needs 11 catches and 135 receiving yards to become the single-season leader in both those categories. (The previous yardage leader – Calvin Johnson – also had Stafford at quarterback during his record-breaking year.) That could lead to a few extra passing plays from the Rams, even if they control this one.
The Rams would also love to get Stafford playing well before the playoffs. Stafford has thrown six interceptions to five touchdowns over the past three games and has not looked like his usual self. The Rams were lucky enough to win all three of those games but will need Stafford at his best in the playoffs. Week 18 is a perfect time to rebuild some momentum.
Jordan Love ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Detroit Lions (43 total)
Way back in 2011, an unheralded Packers quarterback took the field for a meaningless final game of the season. The Packers had clinched the conference and were thus resting starter Aaron Rodgers. That young man was Matt Flynn, who threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns, both single-game records for Green Bay. (Both records still stand, but both have been tied by Rodgers in the years since.) Green Bay’s opponent for that game? The Detroit Lions.
We have a remarkably similar setup this year, except Jordan Love is the quarterback taking over for Rodgers. He’ll be taking on a Lions defense that just gave up 51 points to the Seahawks. Love (like Flynn) will be looking to put some positive plays on tape, either to cement his status as Rodgers’ successor or to find a job elsewhere. The big concern will be his supporting cast, as Green Bay is likely to rest most of their offensive weaponry. They will still have enough talent to put up numbers on the Lions though. Love is my favorite tournament play of the week on DraftKings.
Davis Mills ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+10.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (43 total)
Mills posted three strong performances before running into a tough 49ers pass defense last week. The fantasy numbers weren’t crazy, but he did lead the Texans to wins against the Jaguars and Chargers. While Houston has nothing left to play for, the rookie quarterback does. He’s auditioning for an NFL job, whether in Houston or elsewhere. He’ll also likely be called upon to drop back plenty of times with the Titans favored heavily. It’s not a perfect setup against a tough defense, but Davis is crazy cheap in this one. He’s a very, very long shot, but crazier things have happened in the last week of NFL seasons. Keep him on your radar in this one.
Trey Lance ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (+4) at Los Angeles Rams (44 total)
The 49ers control their own destiny in this one, against a Rams team with somewhat less to play for. While San Francisco can also get in with a Saints loss, fortunately, those games are both being played in the late window, so San Francisco will likely be giving their usual effort throughout.
That might not be enough for Lance to have a big game, given the difficulty of the matchup this week. However, Lance was fine in his first start of the year against Houston, racking up 20 DraftKings points. That was with just over 40 rushing yards (on eight attempts). There’s a path to more production on the ground against the Rams’ somewhat man-heavy defense. Lance trails only Huntley in Pts/Sal.
