In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 16 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- James Robinson (3rd)
- Austin Ekeler (5th)
- Coradrelle Patterson (8th)
- Ronald Jones (9th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
James Robinson ($5,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at New York Jets (41.5 total)
Last week was James Robinson week on DraftKings. As we all flocked to play the Jaguars lead back, once news broke, he was free from the clutches of disgraced former head coach Urban Meyer. Robinson had a solid if unspectacular performance, scoring 17.8 DraftKings points. The underlying usage was solid, though. He handled 18 carries in a game that the Jaguars lost by more than two scores. He even mixed in for an additional six targets.
This week, the matchup is even better for Robinson. While the Jaguars were favored last week, Houston is actually a solid team defensively. They rank 17th in overall DVOA. The Jets, as you probably know, are the league’s worst defense. They have the honor of ranking dead last in both rushing and passing DVOA, which is an accomplishment, to be sure.
All of that is a good sign for Robinson for a few reasons. First, the softer matchup means he’s likely to be more efficient with the carries he gets. Second, the Jaguars (on paper) should have more scoring opportunities, some of which could go to Robinson. Of course, Trevor Lawrence has a way of derailing those plans. Finally, the game script could work out in a way that Robinson sees 20+ carries in this one. That final point is a bit speculative since “easy Jags win” isn’t a game script we’ve experienced this year. Still, it’s on the table this week.
Fortunately for us, Robinson’s price (particularly on DraftKings) doesn’t take into account the ease of his matchup or the expansion of his role. That led to Robinson being tied for first in Pts/Sal on DraftKings. He leads our Cash Game Model there.
Austin Ekeler ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) at Houston Texans (46 total)
It’s looking more and more that Ekeler is unlikely to play this week, so I’ll keep things (relatively) brief. Ekeler is on the reserve/COVID list as of Friday. He is vaccinated, though, so he could be cleared to play with one negative test.
If he plays, it’s a great spot for Ekeler, though. The Chargers do-it-all back trails only Jonathon Taylor in DraftKings scoring on the year. He has 17 total touchdowns, again trailing only Taylor. The Chargers are implied for the highest team total on the slate, so his touchdown equity is through the roof.
It’s also a great matchup with the Texans. As mentioned above, they aren’t terrible from an overall defensive standpoint. However, they do rank 27th in DVOA against the run. They’re one of the easier running back matchups from an Opponent Plus/Minus allowed standpoint as well. At +1.5, they’re the sixth-easiest matchup on the slate for backs.
If Ekeler is unable to go, Justin Jackson ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) is the next man up. Jackson handled 13 carries with Ekeler limited last week. I doubt he sees much more than that this week as he splits time with Josh Kelley ($4,000, $4,900) in relief of Ekeler. However, Jackson is the likelier of the pair to see pass-down reps. Jackson has 12 targets on the year to Kelley’s five.
Ekeler currently leads our tournament model on both sites this week. If he’s unable to go, look to fire up Jackson as a replacement. Ekeler even says so himself:
.@dawson_knox joined @LizLoza_FF and @AustinEkeler to thank him for helping lock up a first-round bye!
Austin broke some bad news, but has advice for all of his managers out there. 👀
Full episode of Ekeler’s Edge ➡️ https://t.co/V1YzNBwV30 pic.twitter.com/FO7k98DU6v
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) December 23, 2021
Cordarelle Patterson ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Detroit Lions (42.5 total)
It’s somewhat of a concern how Patterson’s usage has changed lately. Earlier in the year, he was being used as a hybrid running back/receiver, lining up in the slot or out wide while seeing a high number of targets. That’s changed a bit, though. Last week, he saw only two targets and lined up as a receiver only nine times on 32 Matt Ryan pass attempts.
That shift to playing as a standard running back obviously hurts his value, particularly in negative game scripts. Here’s where the good news comes in. Atlanta is a six-point favorite against the Lions. That means the run game will be more frequently utilized this week than it has been as of late, with the Falcons struggling.
It’s also a good matchup. Detroit ranks 29th against the run in DVOA on the season. They’re susceptible to big plays from running backs, and Patterson is a master at those. 4He should have plenty of opportunities and solid efficiency against Detroit.
All of that makes him a better FanDuel play this week, though. His lack of receptions is less of a hindrance there, and his touchdown upside is relatively more valuable. He’s also cheaper, coming in with an 89% Bargain Rating that’s near the top of the FanDuel slate. All of which explains his standing atop one of our Pro Models on FanDuel this week.
Ronald Jones ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at Carolina Panthers (43 total)
Jones is sure to be a popular option this week. He’s the presumed lead back for one of the league’s best offenses, with Leonard Fournette now on injured reserve. Given that popularity, a tournament fade makes some sense. However, it’s a harder-than-normal stance to take this week. Let’s dig into why.
Jones has struggled with Tampa Bay, finding himself on the bench due to a variety of mistakes. Much of them coming in the passing game, with dropped passed and missed blocking assignments landing him in head coach Bruce Arian’s (and more importantly, Tom Brady’s) doghouse on a regular basis.
While that could lead to him ceding some reps this week – particularly in the pass game – that’s not as much of a concern than normal. The Panthers rank top-ten in passing defense and bottom-ten in rushing defense. Running back points for Tampa will likely come primarily on the ground.
The Bucs are also 10-point favorites, so a between-the-tackles rushing role will be more useful than usual this week. I wouldn’t expect a massive carry count for Jones, though. Tampa throws the ball at the highest rate in the league, despite being favored by double-digits on a frequent basis. Still, a high-teens touch count is more than enough at his current salaries.
Jones also has more touchdown equity this week than normal. Top red-zone receiving option Mike Evans is out for the game, as is overall top wideout, Chris Godwin. While the Bucs would love to continue to attack through the air, their best options to put the ball in the endzone are Jones and Rob Gronkowski.
All of this makes Jones borderline inevitable on FanDuel. We can survive the limited receptions there, and touchdowns are more valuable. He’s also sporting a 93% Bargain Rating, so he’s coming at a relative discount. He’s a good play on DraftKings too though, he leads two Pro Models on each site.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Alexander Mattison ($6,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams (48.5 total)
For whatever reason, DraftKings always prices Mattison as if Dalvin Cook will be missing time. While they didn’t do that with Jones or the Chargers backs, they like to make things interesting with Mattison. Cook is out this week of course, making Mattison solidly in play. He’s scored at least 19.9 DraftKings points in every game without Cook this year.
FanDuel had no such foresight, though, making Mattison a must-play over there. He costs only $100 more than Rojo but has a better role and is a far better player. There’s very few outcomes in which he hurts your lineup this week, even if he doesn’t have a huge game. Mattison is second in Pts/Sal on FanDuel this week.
Najee Harris ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (45 total)
Harris trails only Ekeler and Robinson in DraftKings Ceiling Projection this week. Much of that is thanks to his massive receiving role. While it’s cooled off a bit as of late, he has more targets than any back other than Fournette, who is out for the week. The third-place back is Ekeler, who’s also likely to miss, meaning Harris has by far the best pass-game role on the slate.
That will be of extra importance against an explosive Chiefs team. Pittsburgh is a big underdog here, and will need to stay aggressive in the passing game to keep pace with the Chiefs. While “check downs to our running back” might not sound aggressive to you, it’s about as deep as Big Ben can throw it at this stage in his career. Harris is a great tournament play at low projected ownership this week.
