The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Boston Bruins remain one of the best analytic teams in the NHL, and Patrice Bergeron is a pillar of their success.
Bergeron has dominant metrics at five-on-five. The veteran centerman has a 63% expected goals-for rating, thanks in part to out-chancing his opponents in scoring chances 63-36 and posting a 62.1% Corsi rating. Of course, Bergeron’s fantasy value is also tied to his time on special teams, where he plays on the team’s top powerplay unit while also filling lanes during the penalty kill. Bergeron has five points over his previous two games, thanks to a four-goal outburst on Thursday, and should be expected to continue with solid output against an ineffective Ottawa Senators team on Tuesday night.
The Bruins’ captain is below his expected goals-for percentage with a PDO below 1.000, implying greener pastures await Bergeron. That makes him our top play at center.
Top Value
Nico Hischier ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
The New Jersey Devils are in a favorable spot, hosting the Florida Panthers on the second night of a back-to-back, which should allow Nico Hischier to assert himself in this game.
The former No. 1 selection has posted some of the best metrics in the league this season. Hischier is out-chancing opponents in high-danger chances at a 71.4% rate, resulting in a 62.2% expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five. Hischier is tied for the team lead in powerplay time among forwards and also kills penalties, both of which impact his metrics across all strengths. Nevertheless, the 48 high-danger chances he’s been on the ice for is tied for the team lead.
Similar to Bergeron, Hischier remains below expected values and should progress over the coming games. His inexpensive salary is worth including on DFS rosters.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Skating next to Bergeron on the Bruins’ top line and powerplay unit is David Pastrnak, who is our top play at wing.
The Bruins’ winger is off to a slow start this season, recording six points through his first nine games. What’s not reflected in Pastrnak’s actual output is his outstanding underlying metrics. Pasta is individually responsible for 29 scoring and 11 high-danger chances across all strengths and has put 39 shots on net through nine games. Pastrnak’s on-ice PDO across all strengths is 0.975, which is a good sign that output should increase to match production.
Pastrnak’s fantasy value is appealing, as he gets deployed 76.7% of the time in the offensive zone and is a progression candidate. We should expect a good showing against the Sens tonight.
Top Value
Jason Zucker ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Pittsburgh Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan deserves some credit for getting the most out of the least this year in Pittsburgh. Injuries and COVID-19 has cratered his roster this season, but the Pens remain above .500 thanks to some gutsy efforts from role players.
Among those players, Jason Zucker. Zucker has posted a 54.8% Corsi rating at five-on-five, out-chancing his opponents 70-57 in scoring and 35-17 in high-danger chances, for a 61.5% expected goals-for rating. The former King Clancy recipient quarterbacks the Pens’ second powerplay unit, boosting his expected goals-for percentage to 63.5% across all strengths.
The Chicago Blackhawks remain one of the worst defensive teams in the league, leaving the door open for Zucker to have a solid outing at a reasonable salary.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Kris Letang has only played in six games this season, but he’s been the Penguins’ go-to player under any circumstance. They’ll continue to ride his coattails against the Hawks on Tuesday night.
The two-time All-Star ranks second in the NHL, averaging 27:07 per game, with over three minutes of that time coming with the man advantage. Letang is the point man on the Pens’ top powerplay and has an expected goals-for percentage of 57.4% across all strengths. However, his contributions at five-on-five are more noteworthy, as five of his six points have come at full strength, despite only 39.3% of his starts coming in the offensive zone.
Based on our Median, Ceiling, and Floor projections, Letang rates as one of the best defensive options on the slate.
Top Value
Tyson Barrie ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
It wasn’t so long ago that the defensive cupboards were bare in Edmonton, but not any longer. Tyson Barrie has emerged as a top defensive option for the Oilers, and his early-season output reflects that.
Barrie has found a rhythm with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the Oilers’ powerplay, with three of his eight points coming on the man advantage. The veteran d-man leads Oilers defensemen in powerplay time, and his relative production metrics are hovering around the 60.0% mark. The most telling sign of Barrie’s fantasy ceiling — the Oilers start him 82% of the time in the offensive zone.
The Oilers’ defenseman is a bargain against the Detroit Red Wings on tonight’s slate and our value play on defense.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jeremy Swayman ($8,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Senators transform into a shell of their team as the visitors, and that should benefit Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins on Tuesday night.
As the visitors, the Sens average 19.5 scoring and 7.0 high-danger chances at five-on-five this season, posting expected goals-for percentages below 44.2% in three of their four games this season. That elevates Swayman’s fantasy profile, as the Bruins’ goaltender has been outstanding at home this year. Swayman has stopped 41 of 43 shots at home this season for a 95.3% save percentage, winning both games. Those metrics are a continuation of last season’s success when Swayman stopped 95.1% of shots faced, posting a 4-0-0 record.
Relying on our projections, Swayman looks like the top option in net. The young goalie has five Pro Trends working in his favor and is one of four goalies with a positive Projected Plus/Minus.
Top Value
Mackenzie Blackwood ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
As noted, the Panthers come into tonight’s contest against the Devils, playing on the second straight night and the third time in four nights. That sets Mackenzie Blackwood up to improve on his first start of the season.
Blackwood’s lone appearance came against the Los Angeles Kings on Friday. He stopped 26 of 29 shots in the overtime loss but should improve tonight against the Panthers. Blackwood is 15-11-7 with three or more days of rest, with a 91.3% save percentage. The Panthers also haven’t been the same team on the road as they are at home this season. Florida has attempted 23 or fewer scoring and nine or fewer high-danger chances in three of their five road games. However, their biggest issue has been output, as the Panthers are scoring on just 5.1% of their shots at five-on-five on the road.
Blackwood is coming in rested against a Panthers squad that struggles on the road and is running out of gas. That makes Blackwood our value play in net.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Using our Projected Points as our stack builder returned a number of Bruins’ combinations that rate well on tonight’s slate. The combination we’ve elected to use includes three of the players previously discussed.
Offensively, Bergeron and Pastrnak rate extremely well together. Not only do their metrics place them amongst the elite producers in the NHL, but their actual output also has not yet caught up with their production. They should flourish against a Sens team that struggles on the road. It’s on that basis that we also included Swayman as the top option in net. Swayman has been much better at home than on the road in his career and should continue to thrive against the Sens. We’ve included Charlie McAvoy as the defenseman in our stack. McAvoy will skate with the Bruins’ top producers, and three of his five points are powerplay tallies.
The Bruins are -300 favorites against the Sens tonight. That betting confidence is reflected in our projections, that rate Bruins skaters as one of the best stacks available.
