The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
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Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
The Florida Panthers need to pump the breaks on their four-game losing streak, and they’re well-positioned to do so against the New York Islanders on Tuesday.
The Islanders will be playing the second night of a back-to-back after dropping a 4-1 decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday. The Panthers are back on home ice after their four-game road trip, where they have been much more successful. Aleksander Barkov has been one of the main contributors for the Panthers and should be able to take advantage of a tired Islanders squad. Barkov has a 57.9% Corsi rating at five-on-five and is individually responsible for 31 scoring and 17 high-danger chances. What makes those metrics stand out is that Barkov gets only 50.9% of his starts in the offensive zone.
Barkov is a 200-foot player who sets up well at home against a tired Islanders squad. Don’t overlook his potential on the Tuesday night slate.
Top Value
Mark Scheifele ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
You could see the relief on Mark Scheifele’s face when he finally got off the schneid against the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday. The Jets captain has been snake bitten this season but tallied the game-winning goal in overtime for his first tally of the season.
After a slow start to the season, we’re anticipating the flood gates to open up fully for Scheifele over his coming games. Through eight games, Scheifele has posted the worst expected goals-for rating of his career and is well off his typical scoring pace. He’ll have a chance to improve those metrics against an Edmonton Oilers team that is at the end of a five-game road trip and a goalie who is trending downwards. Mikko Koskinen is the expected starter, and he’s stopping just 87.1% of shots over his past three starts.
Scheifele can help the Jets end their seven-game homestand on a high note. Based on our projections, his value isn’t worth passing on.
Wing
Top Play
Kirill Kaprizov ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Kirill Kaprizov plays more than any other forward Minnesota Wild forward, and it’s easy to see why after taking a glance through his advanced metrics.
Kaprizov’s relative metrics place him amongst the best skaters in the league. The sophomore winger has a 60.8% Corsi rating, 58.8% shots-for percentage, 61.9% scoring chance ratio, and 63.2% high-danger ratio, resulting in a 66.6% expected goals-for percentage. What makes Kaprizov such a valuable play on tonight’s docket is that he hasn’t lived up to his production metrics, and he gets a matchup against the San Jose Sharks, who have allowed at least four goals and 11 high-danger chances in three of their previous five games.
The Wild have scored 24 goals through their first six games of November and should continue their high-scoring antics against the Sharks. Kaprizov is worth including as his output metrics start to soar.
Top Value
Bryan Rust ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Pittsburgh Penguins are coming off a humbling loss to the Washington Capitals on Sunday. The Pens are finally back to full health and have advanced metrics which support that they should have a few more wins. They should see some progression over their next several games and Bryan Rust should find his way onto the score sheet.
Rust is back skating on the wing next to Sidney Crosby and on the team’s top powerplay unit. Rust hasn’t spent much time with Crosby yet this season, as Crosby has played in only two games after dealing with an injury and COVID-19 diagnosis, which has caused a slight dip in his production metrics. Nevertheless, Rust has positive relative production metrics, out-chancing his opponents in scoring and high-danger chances at five-on-five and across all strengths. Rust remains off his expected goal-scoring pace but should see a boost with Crosby back on the ice.
The Sabres have allowed 26 goals over their past six games and will be out-matched by the Penguins again tonight.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Joining Rust as a noteworthy DFS option is Penguins defenseman Kris Letang. Letang will benefit from playing against an underwhelming Sabres team and has solid underlying analytics that has resulted in increased output over his recent sample.
The veteran Penguins defenseman has recorded points in five of his past six games, including three straight. That has elevated Letang’s fantasy value, as he’s recorded 32 fantasy points over his past two games. Letang is the ice-time leader on the Penguins, skating on the top powerplay unit, and also gets most of his starts in the offensive zone. He should be a big part of the Penguins’ progression, further increasing his fantasy value.
Based on our projections, Letang is a top defense option on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Ivan Provorov ($5,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Philadelphia Flyers are at home to take on the road-weary Calgary Flames, who are in the middle of a seven-game road trip. We’re expecting an outburst from the Flyers after getting shut out in their last home game and anticipating Ivan Provorov to get in on the action.
The Flyers have scored 27 goals in six home games this season, including their shutout loss the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game. Provorov gets more ice time than any other Flyer, spending time on both special team units. The Russian defenseman has used his time on the powerplay to generate three scoring chances and six shots on net, resulting in two powerplay points; while he’s blocked eight shots on the penalty kill.
Provorov averages 9.4 fantasy points per game and is coming off a monster 20.5 point performance last time out. He will help set up a few more scoring opportunities tonight against the Flames and is a bargain on the Tuesday slate.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jordan Binnington ($8,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Taking whichever goalie is starting against the Arizona Coyotes has paid dividends early this season. The Yotes are the worst team in the league and are scoring on just 6.1% of their shots. That sets Jordan Binnington up for a bounce-back outing on Tuesday night.
After posting a 93.9% save percentage over a seven-game sample, Binnington has cooled off over his past two starts. The fourth-year tendy is stopping just 84.9% of shots across those starts, losing both games. However, Binnington won’t be challenged by the Coyotes on Tuesday night. The Desert Dogs have attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances across all strengths in four of their past five and haven’t recorded more than 29 shots over that span.
The Blues are in an ideal spot on Tuesday night, and Binnington should perform well against the Coyotes. Our projections rate him as an elite fantasy option, and that makes him our top play in net.
Top Value
Carter Hart ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
Carter Hart has been one of the best goalies in the league to start the season. The 23-year-old has a top ten save percentage for goalies with more than four starts and a 2.19 goals-against average on home ice. He gets to start against the Flames, who are off to a lackluster start on their road trip.
Calgary has been outplayed in two of their first three games this road trip, posting a cumulative 41.4% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths. That bodes well for Hart, who has been a much better goalie on home ice than on the road throughout his career. Hart has a 91.9% save percentage and a 36-21-6 record at home, compared to 17-19-5 on the road with an 89.0% save percentage.
Hart is coming off a 39-save performance against the Carolina Hurricanes and should be able to douse the Flames.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
As per usual, we are using projected points as a filter in our lineup builder, landing on the Florida Panthers as our notable stack.
We discussed the merits of including Barkov on DFS rosters on Tuesday night, and there’s value in including Jonathan Huberdeau with him. The Panthers forwards skate on the first line together and top powerplay unit, combining for 30 points, seven powerplay points, and four game-winning goals through the first 15 games of the season. Aaron Ekblad has been one of the best fantasy producers on defense this season, averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. The last line of defense is Sergei Bobrovsky, who should face a sluggish Islanders offense playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Bobrovsky is putting up solid numbers, stopping 93.9% of shots over his past five appearances.
The Panthers are a betting favorite Tuesday night and project as one of the highest-scoring options on the Tuesday night slate.
