The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Brayden Point ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Tampa Bay Lightning kick-off a three-game road trip against the Los Angeles Kings, who will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. This hasn’t been a good spot for the Kings this season, and the Bolts will be ready to strike.
Brayden Point will be leading the offensive charge for the Lightning. The 25-year-old has points in six straight games and nine of his past ten, a span in which he’s recorded 13 total points. Most of those points have come on goals, as Point has found the back of the net eight times over that stretch. Point has the second-best expected goals-for rating among Lightning players, individually creating 102 scoring and 51 high-danger chances.
Even though Point is our top play, he’s still coming at a value as his salaries don’t accurately reflect his fantasy ceiling. Don’t be surprised if the Lightning’s top-line center finishes as one of the top producers on Tuesday’s slate.
Top Value
Elias Pettersson ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The Vancouver Canucks are in a similar position as the Lightning, as they take on the Nashville Predators coming off a 5-3 defeat on Monday night. The Preds elected to go with primary goalie Juuse Saros on Monday, meaning backup David Rittich is the projected starter Tuesday.
The Canucks have thrived since the coaching change last month, and Elias Pettersson is a player we’re anticipating more growth from over his coming games. The former Calder Trophy winner is coming off his first multi-goal outing of the campaign but remains below expected values. Pettey has been on the ice for 35 goals this season, below his expected value of 42.1, and has been one of the Nucks’ most productive players, posting the third-best expected goals-for rating on the team.
Vancouver continues to set Pettersson up for success, giving him 79.2% of his starts in the attacking zone. Petterson is only available as a center on the FanDuel slate, but he’s a value play worth targeting on both platforms.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($8,700 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets don’t have a good track record of limiting their opponents, a trend that Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals can take advantage of on Tuesday.
The Jets have given up at least 12 quality chances in five of their past six, with a rolling average of 13.3 per game which isn’t too far off their season-long average of 12.2. Ovechkin will be ready to capitalize with additional room to maneuver in the offensive zone. The three-time Hart Trophy winner has attempted at least four shots on net in each of his past four games, recording a point in each outing.
Ovi is tied for the league lead in points and goals and could use a strong showing against the Jets to put some space between him and his competitors. The Jets aren’t in any position to slow him down.
Top Value
Jamie Benn ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
Few teams have been as bad as the Montreal Canadiens this season, a fact the Dallas Stars can take advantage of on Tuesday.
Some of the shine has worn off Jamie Benn over the past few seasons, as the veteran forward hasn’t recorded more than 39 points since the 2018-19 season. Nevertheless, his advanced metrics support, we should expect increased output from Benn over his coming games. Benn is coming up short on his relative and absolute analytics, being on the ice for 28 goals compared to his expected value of 33.5 goals-for and putting up an actual 51.9% goals-for rating compared to his expected value of 53.3%.
Benn has been held pointless in five straight games, despite delivering 12 shots on net over that span and continuing to get 55.1% of his starts in the offensive zone. The Stars captain is a moderately-priced option with boom potential against an inferior Habs team.
Defense
Top Play
Thomas Chabot ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Thomas Chabot doesn’t get the credit he deserves playing on a young Ottawa Senators team. The sixth-year rearguard does it all for the Sens and should see an increase in his output metrics over the coming games.
On an absolute level, Chabot has been one of the best, not only on the Sens but the entire NHL. Chabot has been on the ice for the 34th-most scoring chances and 38th-most quality opportunities, playing on the Sens top-pairing and powerplay unit and averaging the most ice-time per game in the league. Still, the 25-year-old remains off his career point-per-game average, making Chabot a progression candidate moving forward.
That could start tonight against the defensively-inept Buffalo Sabres. Chabot has delivered 18 shots on target over his previous six outings, while Sabres goalies are stopping just 89.3% of shots over their past seven. Ottawa’s offensive efficiencies should continue on Tuesday night, and Chabot will be a big part of their success.
Top Value
Ivan Provorov ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
The Philadelphia Flyers host the New York Islanders on the backend of a back-to-back and home-and-home series. The Flyers will be looking to avenge last night’s loss and are in a much better position on home ice.
The Flyers deploy Provorov as a defensive d-man, starting him just 46.2% of the time in the offensive zone, but the Russian defender provides fantasy value on both ends of the ice. Provorov spends more time on the penalty kill than he does on the powerplay but uses that time to fill shooting lanes, leading the team in blocked shots. That’s not to diminish his offensive contributions, as Provorov is tied for fourth on the team in powerplay assists, sitting sixth on the team in assists and seventh in points.
All things considered, Provorov is averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game over his past nine outings and should continue his recent upswing against the Isles on Tuesday.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Tuukka Rask ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
The Boston Bruins remain one of the analytically dominant teams in the Chell, and they’re only getting better now that Tuukka Rask is back in the fold.
The Finnish netminder returned to action on January 13, helping the B’s knock off the Flyers and extending their win streak to four games. That streak has now reached five, with the Bruins looking to make it six straight against the Carolina Hurricanes tonight. Boston has limited five of their past six opponents to 17 or fewer scoring and six or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five, with rolling averages of 17.2 and 5.7, respectively.
Rask will be sheltered by the Bruins’ strong defensive play and should continue his strong start to the season, making him our top play in net.
Thatcher Demko ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The Predators’ recent offensive surge could be scaring bettors away from Thatcher Demko and the Canucks, but there are a couple of factors which support that Demko is an undervalued DFS option between the pipes.
First, Demko appears to be trending in the right direction. After three subpar performances, the young netminder responded by stopping 93.9% of shots faced against the Washington Capitals last time out. Demko should continue his upwards trajectory against a Preds team that is in the middle of a correction phase. Nashville is coming off a five-game stretch in which they scored on 16.7% of their shots and has scored on 7.4% over their past three.
Those scoring woes should continue against a Canucks squad that is thriving under new leadership. Demko is 8-3-0 under Bruce Boudreau, stopping 92.9% of shots. The Nucks’ tendy comes at a discounted rate against the Preds.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are several teams that rate highly in our projections today, but one team has several combinations that rate highly than others — the Tampa Bay Lightning.
One of the Lightning’s biggest strengths over the past few seasons has been their offensive firepower, and that should be on full display against the Los Angeles Kings. We discussed the merits of including Brayden Point in DFS lineups and have stacked him with linemate Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov’s advanced metrics are better than Point’s as he’s skating around with a 66.8% expected goals-for rating. Similarly, the Bolts’ offense runs through Victor Hedman on defense. The hulking blue liner contributes points in all facets of the game and is a natural inclusion on Tampa stacks. Lastly, Andrei Vasilevskiy serves as the last line of defense and should continue his outstanding play against the Kings.
The Lightning enter tonight’s contest as -.200 favorites, which is betting market confidence that we like to align our daily stacks with.
