The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a monster 14-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Conner McDavid ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) at Arizona Coyotes
The Oilers are taking on a Coyotes team who has started to play a little better of late but still ranks third-last in penalty-kill efficiency and have taken the most penalties in the league — a terrible combo when going up against the league’s top power-play. Edmonton’s offense got shutdown yesterday in Dallas, but this is quite a different opponent, and it’s very likely we’ll see Edmonton’s star players rebound here quickly. When looking at the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today, there’s not a ton of difference in the Ceiling Projections between Leon Draisaitl and Conner McDavid, who are within a couple of points of each other on both sites.
Realistically though, McDavid is the one with better long-term standing in points per game, better Consistency Rating, and better Points Projection. He’s also cheaper on FanDuel for some reason and just $200 more expensive than Draisaitl on DraftKings. His point streak may have ended yesterday, but McDavid is the one with the hot start that seems more likely to last here.
Pay up for him as long as these two are this close in salary.
Top Value
Ryan O’Reilly ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) at Detroit Red Wings
The St. Louis Blues offense has looked a little healthier of late after enduring a cold patch. Center Ryan O’Reilly comes into this slate ranked 11th in points per game and sixth in ice time per game, in long-term form at center. Despite all that, he is available at under $5,000 on DraftKings — where he has an 85% Bargain Rating.
The Red Wings are an opponent we love to match up against with our top-six forwards too. Detroit has allowed the second-most quality scoring chances against this year and the fourth-most shots on goal — and also feature the 11th-worst penalty-kill. O’Reilly looks supremely undervalued here and makes for a great pay-down option with any of the Blues PP1 wingers here too.
Wing
Top Play
Nikolaj Ehlers ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) @ Columbus Blue Jackets
The Winnipeg Jets are a team that needs some attention on this slate as they’re likely going to be lower in sentiment than they should today after coming off two bad games. The Jets are still a great offensive team, though with a strong top-six. They rank 10th in both powerplay efficiency and in xGF% and will be taking on a Blue Jackets team who have allowed at least three goals against in each of their last six games.
If we’re targeting the Jets’ top six, Nikolaj Ehlers is certainly one of the names I don’t mind paying up for in this spot. He’s averaging 3.6 shots on net over his last 10 games and ranks in the top-5% in shots on goal, shot attempts, and Corsi Rating at wing over the last month. His price on DraftKings is also at its lowest point in over two weeks.
Go with Ehlers to get your Jets exposure started today.
Top Value
Tyler Toffoli ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) @ Washington Capitals
We have seen Tyler Toffoli go for well over $6,000 on DraftKings at various points in the last two years, so seeing his salary dip below $4,000 tonight should really catch our interest. The former King is still playing on the Canadiens’ top line and powerplay unit and has also started to pick up his production of late. He comes into this game with 10 shots on goal over his last three games and finally broke through for three points in his last outing after going scoreless in four straight games.
Toffoli is obviously a better value on DraftKings today, but the matchup here may still scare people off, despite the great price. The Montreal first-line is a nice contrarian target today and won’t cost much to stack. If you’re looking to Montreal, begin with Toffoli, who makes for a good value punt on his own in GPPs today.
Defense
Top Play
Brent Burns ($7,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Whenever the Ottawa Senators are on tap, we should be seriously considering paying up for the opposing team’s stars. The Sharks aren’t a sexy team in terms of offense or offensive players, but this certainly feels like a good spot for Brent Burns to rebound and get back to the type of big fantasy games he was posting at the start of the year. Burns still ranks out fifth in long-term form in the blocked shots + shots on goal department and also ranks third in Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Models.
Burns is a far better value on FanDuel, where he has a massive 96% Bargain Rating and will likely be a popular target there. The Senators have a bottom-five penalty-kill, and San Jose also has lots of cheap forwards you can stack with Burns, which will help keep your average salary down on DraftKings. He and the Sharks’ PP1 make for good contrarian targets here against in a great matchup.
Top Value
Devon Toews ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The top-three Colorado defensemen are all great targets right now. Devon Toews is getting us good exposure to the Avalanche powerplay and also playing on the top pairing for a team that is averaging 6.2 goals per game over their last five games. Toews ranks out sixth in the Player Ratings on FantasyLabs on both sites today and is averaging a stout 3.76 blocked shots + shots on goal over the last 12 months.
He almost makes for too obvious of a play, but with Cale Makar finally priced up to where he should be, after destroying multiple slates in a row, taking the discount on Toews may be the correct move tonight, as it does feel like the Avalanche defensemen are just taking turns going off. Tonight, Toews looks like the most underpriced one of the grouping, and you should take advantage.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jack Campbell ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Kings
There’s plenty of big favorites, as you might expect, on this 14-games slate, but Jack Campbell looks like one of the best targets out there today, despite being “just” a -166 road favorite. Campbell is obviously taking on his old team here, so we have a nice narrative to build around, but the Kings have also really started to cool off offensively after a hot stretch. They’re averaging just 2.6 goals per game at the moment and have lost four in a row and scored more than twice just once in those four games.
Campbell’s price also makes him much easier to pay up for than the big favorites here. He’s got an 84% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s also ranked second in overall Ceiling Projection. The gap between these two teams is likely wider than their records indicate, and going with the Leafs’ netminder today — who is available at great prices on both sites — makes a ton of sense for core lineups.
Top Value
James Reimer ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Sharks come into this game with the Senators as strong -172 home favorites. James Reimer ranks second in the Player Ratings on FanDuel at goalie, where he’s got a big 86% Bargain Rating. The Senators have exactly one win in their last nine starts, and Reimer brings a .940 save percentage into this game.
If anything, the Sharks may actually be a little undervalued in the odds here, and Reimer certainly looks underpriced on FanDuel. He makes for a good GPP target on DraftKings today, too, as the $8,000 psychological pricing will likely keep people off any San Jose goalie, despite having one of the weakest opponents in the league. Reimer rates out well, is playing great, and makes for a great fantasy target on this monster slate, where his ownership isn’t likely to get out of control.
Notable Stack
Panthers L1 – Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair + Jonathan Huberdeau
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
When we run the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool via our Player Ratings settings today, the Panthers come out as the top stack of the day. Even without Aleksander Barkov, this team has kept winning, and its first line has also developed into a solid bargain in DFS. The Panthers L1 has the kind of correlation we want from a first-line in that they are playing together at 5v5 and on the power play — and cost us just 19,700 on DraftKings.
The Flyers may not scream great matchup, but this is a team that has lost four of their last five games and seem heavily overdue for some defensive regression. Sam Bennett ranks in the top 1% of all centers in blocked shots + shots on goal over the last 15-games, so his $6,100 salary on DraftKings still looks very cheap here. Both Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Duclair have been very efficient with their shots this year, and that bodes well against a Flyers goalie tandem who have come back to earth of late and allowed four or more goals in three of the Flyers last four games.
This isn’t the cheapest stack out there, but the Florida top trio also won’t kill your wallet today and ranks out highly in all the FantasyLabs Trends and Models.
