The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Sean Couturier ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
We obviously have more than one elite center to pick from in this Leafs-Flyers game, and with John Tavares looking very questionable, it is likely the field piles on Auston Matthews. Matthews is trending under his numbers from last year ever so slightly, though, so looking for a balanced approach here isn’t a terrible idea.
Fading Matthews on a short slate is dangerous, but Sean Couturier is averaging just 1.3 points less DraftKings points per game than Matthews on the year and enters with a better rating than Matthews in the FantasyLabs Points Projection Model today.
Couturier has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, so he’s clearly the stronger play there, but he’s also likely to be lesser owned on FanDuel today, which makes him and the Flyers top-line a good leverage play against what should be a very highly-owned Matthews.
The Leafs have struggled five-on-five (they’ve given up the eighth-most scoring chances against), and Couturier has now averaged 3.25 shots on goal over his last five games. Take the team that’s laying well and the center here that is trending above his norms from the past two seasons.
Top Value
Frédérick Gaudreau ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
We certainly don’t mind taking some exposure to the Minnesota Wild in this spot against the Coyotes, and Frederick Gaudreau is a great way for us to get cheap exposure. The Wild are weak down the middle, but whenever you have a player manning the top line on a quality team, you have to take notice for fantasy purposes. Gaudreau is the top-rated center under $4,000 on FanDuel today in the Projected Points Model, and if nothing else, he is averaging well over 17 minutes per game in a top-six role.
We shouldn’t be expecting Gaudreau to turn into a point-per-game player overnight, and there are other teams like the Golden Knights, whose centers continually disappoint for fantasy. However, Gaudreau does have the 10th best CorsiFor rating at center on this slate and did average .52 points per game in a lesser role with the Penguins last year.
Regardless of whether you’re stacking the Wild here or not, Gaudreau’s a solid value for this short slate.
Wing
Top Play
Mitchell Marner ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) at Philadelphia Flyers
When looking at the top plays at the wing, it’s hard not to side with Mitchell Marner, who comes into this game in the top-10% in Corsi Rating and top 5% in shot attempts per game in the short term in the FantasyLabs Pro Trends Tool. The Leafs have the biggest implied puck total on this slate at 3.2 goals, so we obviously would like some exposure to their offense, and Marner leads wingers here by a wide margin in Ceiling Rating on both sites.
It may not even be a poor idea to use Marner (who could get jostled around here in the lines if John Taveres doesn’t play) without Matthews on this slate. There’s no guarantee the two play together even if Tavares is out and Marner has proven capable of carrying his own line of late. He’s the pay-up option you should be targeting on the Leafs today.
Top Value
Phil Kessel ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel)
The Coyotes are coming off their first win of the season, where they potted five goals. This offense is likely due for at least a little more short-term regression after being so terrible at goal-scoring to start the year. Phil Kessel gives us exposure to the Coyotes top-six in a matchup with the Wild, who have allowed four goals against in four of their last five games.
From a betting angle, five of the last six times these two teams have faced each other in Arizona, the over has hit, which gives us more reason to expect some goals today. Kessel will be out on the powerplay, and the Wild have the 10th-worst penalty-kill in the league and have taken the fifth-most penalties so far in 2021.
Don’t be shocked if we see another goal from Phil tonight, who is available near the min on DraftKings.
Defense
Top Play
Miro Heiskanen ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The Stars haven’t been good offensively for most of the year, which only makes Miro Heiskanen’s play and fantasy production to begin the season, that more impressive. The Finnish superstar is averaging 4.6 blocked shots + shots on goal on the season, which is well above his long-term form and puts him right up with the top-priced play Roman Josi for this slate.
Hesikenen’s tougher matchup is then mitigated by the fact he’s performing so well in the short-term trends, yet hasn’t seen his salary get to the point where he’s being overvalued. He’s top 10% in Corsi, time on ice, and shots per game in the short-term Pro Trends and gets the lean here based on him out-performing his longer-term metrics by a wide margin to start the year.
Top Value
Shayne Gostisbehere ($4,400 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel)
This is a potentially great spot to deploy Shayne Gostisbehere, who takes on a Wild team that likes to take penalties, yet rates out with a bottom-10 penalty kill. The former Flyer is helping to man the point on the Coyotes’ first powerplay unit and comes into this game ranked 10th in Ceiling Rating for the slate and is averaging 3.6 blocked shots + shots on goal per game.
The Wild goaltending and special teams have been their biggest liability to start the year so going with a cheap Arizona stack today to open up some room for studs at other positions has some serious meat behind it on this short slate. If you’re taking that approach, Gostisbehere should be the first Coyotes on your list as his consistency in the peripheral stats (and opportunity on the power-play) makes him one of the strongest plays on defense today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Carter Hart/Jack Campbell ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
This does feel like a good slate to take some chances in net with the underdogs (especially on a short slate where the favored goalies may approach 30+ percent owned). Carter Hart has had a great start to the season and comes into this game having posted 11 or more DraftKings points in five of his seven starts on the season. His upside here also looks juicy as he has the largest Predicted Shot Total in the FantasyLabs Model today and brings in a sparkling .926 save percentage on the season.
The Leafs could be without multiple top players today, and the Flyers have been a much better defensive team over last year to start the season. Taking Hart at home here as a slight underdog, especially if you’re fading the Leafs’ top players, is a nice way to get leverage in big GPPs.
Top Value
Juuse Saros ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) at Nashville Predators
Juuse Saros is another underdog who looks like he’s in a great spot for fantasy purposes. The Predators goalie has posted 11 or more DraftKings points in eight of his 10 starts this season and rates out with the best Consistency and Upside Ratings (by a lot) in the FantasyLabs Model today. Saros has faced an average of 31.23 shots per game so far (second-most on the slate) and faces a Stars team who has been terrible at scoring five-on-five.
Saros is the slightly better value on DraftKings, and with a couple of bigger favorites on the board here— with Jack Campbell and Kaapo Kahkonen — he’s not likely to push for much ownership in big fields.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Flyers Power Play 1 – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny – Ivan Provorov
The Flyers PP1 rates out extremely well in the Stacking Tool on FantasyLabs when we run by Ratings for DraftKings. I mentioned how good a value Couturier was up above at just $6,000 flat, but line-mate Travis Konecny also looks undervalued at just $5,200 on that site. He’s averaging 2.8 shots per game and has skated 18 minutes or more in his last three games.
Ivan Provorov has also now taken up duties on the first unit power-play, and that launches his upside into the big-time. He’s averaging 4.3 blocked shots + shots on goal per game already and now has heightened point potential here, which makes his sub-$5,000 salary on DraftKings look silly. The Leafs have given up the eighth-most scoring chances against and rank fifth-last in penalty-kill. The Flyers’ powerplay studs are a great way to stack today.
