The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($8,800 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
We have a couple of bigger names to choose from today at center and some terrific value options too, but Auston Matthews is the name we should be most comfortable paying up for. The Maple Leafs’ center leads the ceiling projections at center on this slate by over 2.0 points and is coming off two slow games, which may even help keep ownership levels down.
A quick comparison has Nathan MacKinnon ahead of Matthews in recent CorsiFor and shots on goal. Still, Matthews has been far more efficient than MacKinnon in the goal-scoring department, landing 0.73 goals per game over the last year. A clip that’s over 25% more efficient than what MacKinnon has produced.
The Ducks have allowed the seventh-most scoring chances against this year and are on the road, where they’ve got a -12.0 goal differential this year and have allowed over 34-shots per game. Matthews should be your starting point on this slate.
Top Value
Tomas Hertl ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) at Washington Capitals
The San Jose Sharks likely won’t be a popular target in this spot as they’re on the road and have just a 2.3 implied goal total. Tomas Hertl still rates out very well though. In the FantasyLabs Model, he ranks seventh in ceiling projection at center. Hertl is also available at his lowest price on DraftKings in over eight games, and that’s something we should really be taking notice of as well, especially on a slate where he won’t have a ton of eyeballs on him.
Washington is admittedly not the greatest matchup, but the 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal that Hertl has produced over the short-term and his huge usage (over 20 minutes per game) pushes him over the edge into playability. He rates out as one of the best values today on FantasyLabs and is a good target to build around in GPPs, where the top six for the Sharks all make for good pivot options.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) at Colorado Avalanche
David Pastrnak likely doesn’t need much of an introduction as he’s landed 11 goals in his last 10 games and has been carrying fantasy lineups for over two weeks now. Pastrnak has been featured in this article a ton over that span, as his projections in the FantasyLabs Model were suggesting an uptick before the breakout even occurred.
The matchup looks a little tougher on paper, but the Avalanche still carry one of the worst penalty-kills in the league (sixth-worst to be exact), have received up and down goaltending for most of the year, and have been one of the busiest teams from a scheduling standpoint since the Covid stoppage ended.
We shouldn’t shy away from Pastrnak today, who again leads in ceiling projection at his position.
Top Value
Dominik Kubalik ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
The Blackhawks face off against a Red Wings team that has allowed the fourth-most scoring chances against this year. As such, it behooves us to scour the Blackhawks roster today for some deeper value options, especially if we’re looking for punt/cheaper option at wing. Dominik Kubalik is inconsistent in terms of when he actually produces solid games for us in DFS, but he does show up with a top 12 rating in the ceiling projections today.
He’s averaging 2.5 shots on net and 0.5 points per game in long-term form and gets us some light powerplay exposure to the second unit of Chicago, which could surprise against a weaker opponent. He’s a solid pay-down option at wing in this spot.
Defense
Top Play
John Carlson ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Capitals got John Carlson back from injury in their last game, and he’ll again be out there tonight against the Sharks. A slow first game back has led to a salary that’s not really in line with his opportunity or his past production. Carlson is averaging 4.3 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games and is also averaging 11.8 DraftKings points over that same span.
The $5,600 DraftKings price we’re getting is simply too good to pass up, and Carlson still rates out well in pure point projections, too, as he’s third in ceiling projections on FantasyLabs for today’s slate. Take the depressed price on a slate where there’s not a ton of top-end talent at his position to choose from anyways.
Top Value
Filip Hronek ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Red Wings face a Blackhawks team who allows over 32 shots per game and features the seventh-worst penalty-kill in the league. We don’t mind getting some exposure to the Red Wings tonight then, and when we look at the projections on defense, Filip Hronek stands out with a solid ceiling projection. The Czech-born player sits eighth overall in ceiling projection today and has now upped his point production on the season to where it’s over 0.5 points per game.
While he takes more of a secondary powerplay role, Hronek still averages well over 22 minutes per game and has a plus matchup. The price difference on the sites today is big as Hronek is almost free on DraftKings. If this game between two poor defensive teams turns into a shootout, a cheap point or two should be there for Hronek, who’s a great punt play for those needing a salary saver on defense.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jack Campbell ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
There’s only one favorite bigger than -200 today; it’s the Maple Leafs’ Jack Campbell, who sits at a massive -333 favorite against the Ducks at home. Campbell is a legit Vezina trophy candidate and has been nearly unbeatable at home, where he’s posted three shutouts, and a .938 save percentage in 16 starts this year.
The Ducks offense has struggled since the COVID break, and the dreaded R-word (regression) is certainly catching up with some of their forwards, many of whom were shooting the puck above 20% at the beginning of the year. Campbell’s expensive, but he’s still relatively affordable for how big a favorite he is. As the top projected play in the Projected Points Model, it’s a night to pay up and save cash in other spots.
Marc-Andre Fleury($7,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
The Blackhawks sit at -106 tonight on the moneyline but are on the road against a Red Wings team that has lost seven of their last eight games. When we look at the best value options in net today, Marc-Andre Fleury sticks out like a bit of a sore thumb. He’s second in Ceiling Projections on both sites and is coming off a solid game against the Avalanche.
The Blackhawks goalies are almost always in play as viable GPP options given the fact the team still allows over 32 shots on net per game. Fleury is projected with the biggest save total among the top five rated goalies on FantasyLabs. Wait till we get confirmation he’s starting, but if it is Fleury, he sets up as the preferred pay-down option.
Notable Stack
Capitals L1 – Alex Ovechkin – Nicklas Backstrom – Conor Sheary
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
When we run the FantasyLabs stacking tool today, the Capitals newly formed top line comes up as one of our top three options. The reuniting of Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom should have us excited, and the duo has produced fantasy magic in the past. They come in with seven goals between them over the last six games. Conor Sheary is the wild card but has been very productive for daily fantasy in a top six role for Washington, at least compared to the lower salary he’s generally offered at.
Sheary is more expensive on FanDuel today, but using him in a stack with Backstrom and Ovechkin still saves you bundles and makes this line the best value among our top options. Finally, we have a Sharks team who has been shelled for 10 goals in their last two games and has a negative 2.0 goal differential in 20 road games this year. The Capitals top line are a great target and in a spot to succeed today for fantasy.
