The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Dylan Larkin ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) at Philadelphia Flyers
The center position is quite strong today, with both Edmonton stars on the docket, along with the top-line centers from Dallas and Calgary. Still, the player who stands out with the best overall metrics (in the FantasyLabs Model) is the Red Wings Dylan Larkin. Larkin rates out in front of both of the aforementioned Roope Hintz and Elias Lindholm in pure point projections and comes in fourth today at the position in ceiling projections.
Larkin has produced some big games over his last few starts, landing five or more shots in three of his last five games, and has piled up six points in his last three games alone. Detroit may be a tough back in the betting department, but fantasy-wise, their top line has produced the seventh-most goals on the season. The Flyers are the cream of the crop in terms of matchups (fourth-most shots allowed and sixth-most scoring chances allowed), making Larkin a great upper-tier value to build around.
Top Value
Mikael Backlund ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
There are a couple of different value options we can consider at center, which is strangely deep today for a six-game slate, but the player that sticks out the most is the Flames Mikael Backlund. The second-line center only has 16 points on the year, but he has produced four points in his last 10 games. More importantly, Backlund is trending like a player who we could see breakout for a big offensive game soon. He’s averaging 4.0 shots on net over his last 10 games and produced an average of 10.0 DraftKings points over that same span as well.
Backlund’s ice-time is locked at at over 16+ minutes most nights, and he rates out as one of the best values in the FantasyLabs Model with a Player Rating that has him ranked second overall at the center position. Paying down for the Flames second-line players is a good contrarian on this slate that will also help save you roster space.
Wing
Top Play
Filip Forsberg ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) @ Dallas Stars
We have a pretty big price gap between sites on Filip Forsberg, with him being a full $2,500 cheaper on DraftKings. You can seriously consider paying up for him on Fanduel, too though ownership levels should be lower, and he’s produced well enough over in the short term that his price there isn’t even that outlandish. Forsberg comes in ranked in the top 5% at his position in both shots on net (overall) and shots on net (on the power-play) over the last month — via the FantasyLabs Player Trends Tool.
He’s grabbed six goals over his last seven games and faces a Stars team who has allowed four or more goals in five of their last eight games. Nashville’s top line is often underrated for daily fantasy purposes and the matchup today is better than it appears on paper thanks to the up and down nature of the Dallas goalies. Forsberg’s an elite value on DraftKings and a player to build around, regardless of the site you’re using.
Top Value
James van Riemsdyk ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings have given opposing skaters a solid boost of late as they’ve allowed four or more goals against in five of their last eight starts. Detroit’s ranked second-last in scoring chances allowed this season, so we really shouldn’t be too surprised if a couple of the Flyers forwards produce big games in this spot. Of the group, it’s James van Riemsdyk who comes out with the best Player Rating in Model today.
van Riemsdyk has started to show some signs of life lately with 19 shots on net over his last five games, and he’s solidified in a top-six role for Philadelphia — a role which includes seeing plenty of time on the first-unit power-play. That’s huge in and of itself for a player who is less than $4,000 on DraftKings, but even bigger considering the opponent today. van Riemsdyk is capable of breaking a slate with a multi-point/bonus-filled game, and at these prices, he’s an easy value target on wing.
Defense
Top Play
Evan Bouchard ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Oilers offense should be in a testy mood after getting shut down by the Golden Knights yesterday. The Blackhawks are a good matchup to take frustrations out on as they feature the sixth-worst penalty-kill and have allowed 19 goals against over their last four games alone.
Evan Bouchard then sets up as a great roster on defense as he’s taken over the main point duties for the Oilers on the top power-play unit. Bouchard’s salary is still hovering just under the elite names at his position, but he’s now grabbed 3.0 or more shots on net in six of his last eight games and is trending in the top 1% at his position in Corsi Rating over the last month — via the FantasyLabs Player Trends Tool. A monster game for Bouchard seems likely soon, and seeing it come today against the weaker Blackhawks would not be shocking.
Top Value
Noah Hanifin ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
The Flames offense has produced numerous big offensive games over the past month, and so we shouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of their players trending up in the projections. On defense, the value we’re getting on a player like Noah Hanifan on this shorter slate should pique our interest. Hanifan is still offered at well under $6,000 on DraftKings despite holding a clear top-four role for Calgary. He’s been trending better in the blocked shots department of late (seven in his last four games) and is now averaging 2.2 shots on net over his last 10 starts as well.
We shouldn’t expect Hanifan to carry rosters today, but there’s a clear lack of true upside at defense once we get under a certain threshold. With Hanifian, we’re getting a player who projects second in the Player Ratings on FantasyLabs today and is assured to get us 19+ minutes of ice-time, including some power-play exposure (assuming the Flames draw a few penalties). He’s a good option if going cheap on defense is your goal.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Carter Hart ($8,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
There aren’t a ton of elite goalies on the slate, but we do have some netminders who have been trending well in good matchups. The Flyers take on the Red Wings at home today, and Carter Hart sits as a slight -115 home favorite. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to spark our interest, but today Hart is projecting as the top goalie in the FantasyLabs ceiling projections, so our interest should be peaked.
It’s a small sample, but Hart has played well in his last two outings, landing 22.0 or more DraftKings points in each of his last two starts while stopping 69 of the last 73 shots he’s faced. Detroit could certainly breakout today, but there’s no harm in backing a small favorite at home, especially when the goalie we’re looking at is coming off two strong games.
Juuse Saros ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) at Dallas Stars
It’s an ugly slate for goaltenders, so paying down for quality like Jusse Saros actually feels like a solid play today, even if he has to face one of the best lines in hockey on the other side. Making this matchup easier to swallow is the fact Saros has been on a tear of late for fantasy purposes, landing 27.0 or more points on Fanduel in his last five starts and 22.0 or more points on DraftKings in that same span.
The Predators only sit at -103 on the moneyline today, so we’re not even taking on a big underdog in the nets by rostering Saros, who looks very undervalued on Fanduel compared to his recent form. He’s projecting with the best ceiling projection of any player under $7,500 on that site and makes for a heady pay-down target on a night where we really have no safe haven to turn to at goalie.
Notable Stack
Oilers L1/PP1 — Conner McDavid – Evander Kane – Evan Bouchard
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.]
Evan Bouchard was the only Oiler who made the targets above, but realistically we could have talked about three or four Oilers today. The team got plastered yesterday by Vegas, who is back to full strength and looking dominant again. The Blackhawks are a much different story, though as they’ve allowed the eighth-most goals per game this year and have the sixth-worst penalty-kill. That’s a recipe for disaster against a power-play as prolific as Edmonton’s.
Conner McDavid and Evander Kane will get us plenty of even-strength correlation as they skate together on the first line, and the pairing has already produced two goals in four games for Kane who skated 19 minutes yesterday (a season-high) against Vegas and took 5 SOG. Bouchard I mentioned above and has been getting first-line power-play minutes, making him a good correlation target with both these forwards. This line ranks out first in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool today when we run the Projected Points Model and aren’t even close to being the most expensive stack on the slate. It’s a good time to go back to the well with the Oilers.
