The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Anze Kopitar ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
Anze Kopitar leads the rating section on FantasyLabs as the top value at center today among the big names. We have a choice to pay up for one of the Edmonton studs today, but regardless of who we choose to spend on, Kopitar undoubtedly leads the next best tier of players and makes for a worthy roster at center. He and the Kings take on a Red Wings team who rank 11th in penalties taken and also feature a bottom-10 penalty-kill.
Kopitar has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season in 2021-2022 and has now grabbed 11-points in his last 10 games. His high-volume role against a weaker team today should be respected, and it’s no surprise he’s ranking out as the third-best center in ceiling projections today on FantasyLabs. The Kings’ top center is a great building block.
Top Value
Nicklas Backstrom ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
Centr doesn’t have a very deep top-end today, but there are lots of good names available at cheaper prices. The one that sticks out the most is Nicklas Backstrom who is available at under $5,000 today on DraftKings. Backstrom heads into this game with the Oilers having scored six points in his last five games and is trending well in short-term form.
While he’s not known as a goal scorer, Backstrom is playing in a second-line role away from Alex Ovechkin, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him continue to be slightly busier with his shot as long as he’s away from Ovechkin at regular strength. He rates out as a top 10 play in the ceiling projections and has a top-end matchup against Edmonton, who give up well over 32.0 shots per game and have seen their penalty-kill plummet to 10th worst in the league.
Backstrom’s a great pay-down target if you’re looking to spend at other positions.
Wing
Top Play
Patrick Kane ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Winger is much like center today in that we have limited options at the top end of the spectrum, but things do flatten out a touch as we get lower. One player whose salary does stand out quite a bit in the upper tiers is Patrick Kane. The veteran has quietly started to produce more consistently of late and heads into this game against Minnesota with six points tallied in his last three starts.
Kane trails Ovechkin in most long-term metrics, but the gap isn’t as large as you’d think in most areas. Kane has nearly an identical CorsiFor rating as Ovechkin and has landed 4.2 shots on net, per game, over his last 10 starts. The Wild are a quality team, but Kane’s recent uptick and (more importantly) his cheaper prices today make him a player worthy of a roster spot.
Top Value
Kevin Fiala ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Wild’s Kevin Fiala comes into this game against Chicago with 12 points in his last 10 games. We’ve seen Fiala go on tears like this numerous times over the last couple of seasons, and he’s a shooter who can stay hot for a while. Since most DFSers go after the Kirill Kaprizov/Ryan Hartman combo when chasing the Wild’s forwards (in DFS), that may also mean Fiala isn’t that heavily rostered today and a good pivot option.
The veteran ranks out fifth in goals scored per game and in ceiling projections today on FantaysLabs. There’s also a good matchup on tap against Chicago, who feature the sixth-worst penalty-kill and also give up 3.3 goals per game. Fiala’s a good value at these levels and a player you don’t have to worry about stacking, as his intrinsic value comes as a goal scorer where he’s produced for Minnesota in a variety of roles the last few seasons.
Defense
Top Play
John Carlson ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers’ penalty-kill has really tanked this year to where they are now in the bottom-10 of the league in terms of efficiency. Edmonton also played last night, so a little fatigue could set in for the club in the second half of this game. That all makes the Capitals John Carlson an elite add on defense. Carlson broke a long goalless streak in his last start and has looked better in his last couple of games since coming back from injury.
Carlson tops the defensemen ratings today on FantayLabs and gets an Oilers team who loves to let elite defensemen like himself operate with lots of time and space. If we’re thinking about who to pay up for, then Carlson should be our logical choice given his matchup and the fact he’s available on DraftKings and Fanduel at one of his lowest price points of the season.
Top Value
Connor Murphy ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
There’s not much debating that Connor Murphy is one of the best values on the board today regardless of position. Murphy has averaged an astounding 5.6 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games, making him a massive value at these levels (on both sites).
Murphy has developed into a high-usage defenseman for Chicago, who have skated him over 20-minutes now for most of the year. He doesn’t bring us a ton to get excited for, upside-wise, but he’s shown flashes of good offensive play recently and has averaged 11.6 DraftKings fantasy points over that same span. If we go by the ratings, Murphy’s the top-rated defenseman today under $4,000 by a longshot, and a player who could explode for a big game (given how he usually contributes) were he to grab you even a single assist.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Cal Peterson ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) at Detroit Red Wings
Outside of the Flames, there’s no heavy favorite on the board. It’s possible we get a Dan Vlader start from Calgary anyways, so it might be a day to stay away from their net. The Los Angeles Kings are surprising road favorites in their spot against Detroit, though, which maybe isn’t all that surprising given Detroit’s overall weakness (just two wins in their last six games).
Cal Peterson has been their best goalie of late and comes in on a three-game win streak and featuring a .910 save% over his last 10 games, overall. Assuming he starts, Peterson would be a fine target to anchor lineups with. Detroit’s going up against a strong team 5v5 in Los Angeles and a team who has an elite center capable of checking and shutting down the Wings top-line. Peterson could see a plethora of easy saves and makes for a good value at under $8,000 on DraftKings specifically.
Philipp Grubauer ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) at New York Islanders
The Seattle Kraken enter this game as +140 underdogs on the road today against the Islanders. It’s not as big a number as one would have expected, and a lot of that likely has to do with the improved play of Philipp Grubauer for Seattle, who has posted save percentages of well over .900 in four of his last six starts.
Four of those last six starts were wins as well, and Grubauer faces an Islanders team who was in action yesterday and have a terrible special teams crew. He rates out as a decent value to chase today in net given the Islanders’ overall weakness and the improved play of his own team of late.
Notable Stack
Capitals L1 – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Tom Wilson – Alex Ovechkin
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The lineup builder today was pretty decisive in terms of who it liked the most. While both Chicago and Edmonton had some cheaper lines to potentially target, and that rated out in the top-10 of the projections, none rated better than the capitals top-line of Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin, and Evgeni Kuznetsov.
I’ve already rallied on the Oilers defense woes of late, but we can take it a step further now as their weak penalty-kill will help the duo of Kuznetsov and Ovechkin, who make for a perfect combo play on their own in GPPs. Wilson is playing big minutes alongside these two at even strength though, and has been productive in the new role. He’s now averaging 3.3 shots on net + blocked shots over his last 10 games, and makes for a great way to keep this line’s salary down.
It’s tight at the top today, but the big Washington trio have a great matchup and are in a perfect spot to grab you multiple points today.
