The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a four-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) @ Vancouver Canucks
The Bruins Patrice Bergeron rates out as the top play at center tonight in the Player Ratings on DraftKings, and he certainly looks like a great bargain there at nearly $2,000 less than Nathan MacKinnon. The Bruins’ top line hasn’t scored a ton of late, but Bergeron enters this game against Vancouver, averaging 4.7 goals in his last 10 games and is in the top 5% in shots on goal and Corsi Rating at center over the last month, via the FantasyLabs Pro Trends Tool.
There’s lots of fantasy potential in each game today, but the mismatch here with the Bruins’ top line is evident as they go up against a Vancouver penalty-kill that is last in the league in efficiency. The Bruins’ top plays are all worth paying up for here, and Bergeron should be where you start if you want exposure to this offense.
Top Value
Kevin Hayes ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) @ New Jersey Devils
The Flyers and Devils face off today in a game that involves two of the worst defensive teams in the league over the last couple of weeks. New Jersey has allowed 21 goals over their last four games and make for a great matchup right now for the Flyers forwards. Kevin Hayes recently returned from injury for Philly, and while he’s scored just one goal in his last five games, he is a player with a solid 12% career shooting percentage who ranks out as a good value to target in the FantasyLabs Models.
In terms of Ceiling Projection, Hayes is the second highest-ranked center today in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model at under $4,000 on DraftKings and makes for a great way to start any Flyers mini-stacks as he can be paired with an equally underpriced player like Cam Atkinson. Don’t be afraid to dip into the Flyers’ depth chart tonight for value.
Wing
Top Play
Joe Pavelski ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) @ Vegas Golden Knights
The Dallas top line has been a must-target for nearly a month now, and winger Joe Pavelski has been a big part of the production for that line. The veteran has nine points in his last five games and has solid correlation with both his linemates in Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, who make for easy stack targets to pair with him.
Pavelski ranks out inside the top 10 in Ceiling Projections on both sites today and takes on a Vegas squad that allows over 32 shots on goal per game and has allowed the sixth-most scoring chances in the league thus far. This is a better than advertised matchup for a line that has been near unstoppable of late. Pavelski gives you great value here.
Top Value
Cam Atkinson ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) @ New Jersey Devils
I mentioned Cam Atkinson above as a potential stacking mate with Kevin Hayes (whom he plays with on the Flyers’ third line), but he really does deserve his own slot tonight. The winger remains very underpriced at just $3,800 on DraftKings as he comes into this game with the Devils averaging 0.4 goals per game and 3.0 shots on goal per game over his last 10-starts.
Atkinson rates out just below the top 10 in Ceiling Projection in the FantsyLabs Projected Points Model, and he has the best projection, overall, of any player priced under $4,000 on DraftKings today. The Devils are allowing goals at an alarming rate right now, and Atkinson is arguably the Flyers’ most proficient goal-scorer. Taking advantage here seems like a smart choice at these prices.
Defense
Top Play
Adam Fox ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) @ Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have really cratered this year in terms of goals allowed and penalty-kill efficiency, where they rank eighth-last in the league at the moment. Perhaps it’s just a case of bad goaltending, but the Avalanche have been a great team to attack with opposing powerplays of late, and Adam Fox gives you good exposure to the Rangers’ powerplay here.
Fox rates out strongly in the FantasyLabs Model and is also fourth on this slate in terms of long-term powerplay minutes, per game, at his position. He’s grabbed points in seven straight games, five of which have come on the powerplay as well. You can feel free to load up on the team’s top powerplay units when they face the Avalanche, for the time being, making the cheaper Fox a great elite defenseman to build around today.
Top Value
Ivan Provorov ($4,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) @ New Jersey Devils
The Flyers take on a team as bad as they are defensively today, and they’ll also be getting that sweet coaching change motivation/bump. It all makes for a good situation in which to target their cheaper skill players in DFS, and defenseman Ivan Provorov may actually rate out as the best overall target from this game. The defenseman is top 10 in Player Ratings on both sites but also ranks fourth in Ceiling Projection on DraftKings.
The Devils are weak in pretty much every defensive area, and Provorov not only handles some power-play time for Philly but also ranks in the top 10% in blocked shots + shots on goal at his position over the last month. He’s averaged 0.5 points per game and 4.4 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games, to be precise and makes for a near must play at under $5,000 in this matchup.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jeremy Swayman ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) @ Vancouver Canucks
Both starters from this game rate out quite well in the FantasyLabs Model today, but we have pretty significant favorites in the Bruins here, who are -145 on the money line, despite being on the road. The Canucks got a nice one-game bump form their coaching change but still rate out as the far worse team who will have issues containing the Bruins top-line.
Jeremy Swayman has played fine for the Bruins this year and brings a .924 save percentage into this game over his last 10 games. He rates out well in the Player Ratings (as a top-two play) and looks underpriced for being the biggest favorite on this slate.
Top Value
Braden Holtby ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) @ Vegas Golden Knights
The Stars are an underdog we can have interest in here. The team is on the road, but they are just +119 underdogs as of writing and have now won seven games in a row. The Golden Knights offense isn’t one we should be actively targeting (now that they are back to full strength), but this slate has big offenses against poor defensive teams almost everywhere. The Stars have played better defensively of late and are getting solid goaltending from various sources, including the likes of Braden Holtby, who has won three games in a row and has a .928 save percentage this year.
If you’re not taking on Swayman, then most of the other goalies on this slate are going to come with high variance. At least with Holtby, we get a starter on a team playing the best hockey of their season and a player capable of shutting down any offense given the short-term form he’s shown.
Notable Stack
Bruins L1 – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak – Taylor Hall
Devils L1 – Nico Hischier – Jesper Bratt – Paval Zacha
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
It’s a pretty obvious spot here for the top line of the Bruins, who rank out as the clear top stack in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool. We should certainly not be shying away from starting players against the Vancouver Canucks, who could allow an avalanche of points to elite shot-producing duo like Bergeron and Pastrnak, who become more price effective when stacked with a cheap defenseman or Taylor Hall.
This could also be a night to leave a ton of money on the table though, and just use value stacks throughout your lineup. The Devils’ top line is in a great spot against a Flyers team who has allowed 18 goals in their last three games. The Devils rank out as the third-best stack in the Projected Points Model settings and are very cost-effective for those who need value or are just looking to create more unique rosters tonight.
