The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($9,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) @ St. Louis Blues
The Oilers are back in action today, and we have a massive Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Player Model on the Oilers’ best player in Connor McDavid. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl both project out with Ceiling Projections above 23 points today (on DraftKings), and that put them light years ahead of the next best centers on this slate.
When looking at which of the two to play first, it’s worth noting that McDavid will be getting his high-upside winger back in Zach Hyman, and that factor alone makes the extra few hundred dollars worth paying to get up to McDavid. The Blues have started to regress in the penalty-kill department a little and have given up the seventh-most scoring chances against this year.
Spending up for McDavid is a good starting point in this slate.
Top Value
Elias Petersson ($3,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) @ Anaheim Ducks
One other reason why we should feel good about making this a “McDavid” night is that there’s plenty of elite value available at other positions today. Center is no exception as we can get some serious bargain prices on the Canucks top two centers. Elias Pettersson has finally started to show some signs of life under new head coach Bruce Boudreau. Pettersson had points in three straight before the stoppage and had seen his ice-time go back up into the 18-19 minute range right before the break too.
The Ducks are a tougher opponent, but we’re getting exposure here to a player who is trending well in blocked shots and shots on goal while also getting us exposure to the Canucks’ top powerplay unit. He’s clearly the better value on DraftKings, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating, but the Canucks center rates out as a top-five play in the Ceiling Projections on both sites today.
He’s an elite value and also a good contrarian target on FanDuel.
Wing
Top Play
Filip Forsberg ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) @ Washington Capitals
We have a couple of big wingers to target in this game. While Alexander Ovechkin is obvious in a class by himself from a fantasy perspective, I do like going with the discount we’re getting on Filip Forsberg as well. Forsberg rates out directly behind Ovechkin in the Player Ratings on FanDuel today and comes with a price tag that is $3,000 cheaper as well. He’s trending well in both long-term and short-term stats and ranks in the top 5% in the FantasyLabs Pro Trends from a shot attempts and shots on goal perspective over the last month.
The Predators bring in a top-six powerplay into this game, and Forsberg is averaging an elite 4.5 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games. If we’re planning to pay up at center and other positions today, taking the discount we’re getting here on Forsberg, who rates out as a top-five play in the model, makes for good sense from a roster construction standpoint.
Top Value
David Perron ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
No team was happier to see the NHL pause for a few days than the Blues, who had been dealing with multiple COVID cases and injuries to their top players. The Blues are set to get back David Perron today (UBI), and the winger should be inserted directly back into the Blues’ top-six forward rotation. Perron is averaging right around a point-per-game this year and ranks out with the second-best Player Rating today on DraftKings, where he’s priced ridiculously low at just $4,600.
The Oilers’ poor goaltending situation creates a good opportunity to create a leverage stack against them every night as well, especially with an elite offense and powerplay like the Blues. St. Louis’ powerplay has cooled off a touch, but they’re still third in the NHL and will be facing an Oilers team who has allowed at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. Perron’s a great target here with a well-rested Blues team coming off a needed break.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($7,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Much like center, where there was a clear gap between the top two options and the rest of the pack, defense looks like a position where paying all the way up should really pay off. Dougie Hamilton has a Ceiling Projection today that is over three points higher than the next best player at his position and takes on a Sabres team who allows the fourth-most shots on goal per game.
Hamilton and the Devils enter this game with a strong 3.3 implied goal total and the former Hurricane is a solid 4.1 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games. Hamilton and the Jersey powerplay are obviously in a good spot to produce some points then, and the elite defenseman looks like a breakout candidate soon with his shooting percentage over the last 10 games having cratered well under his career average.
Much like center, paying up for the best of the best here looks worthwhile today, and there are also good value options (see below) to pair with him on your rosters at defense too.
Top Value
Alexandre Carrier ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) @ Washington Capitals
The Predators will be without Roman Josi (COVID), and that’s elevated the likes of Alexander Carrier to a more significant role. Carrier has acted as the team’s primary powerplay quarterback with Josi gone, and he comes into this game with points in three straight games. Carrier may not produce at an elite level in terms of blocked shots and shots on goal, but his ice time is trending up nicely, and he should continue to see close to 20+ minutes a game with Josi out.
He rates out extremely well as a bargain today on both sites but is obviously an elite punt play on DraftKings, where he’s clearly mispriced at just $3,000. While Carrier will likely require his team to score some goals today to truly return value (so he can grab a cheap assist), the risk is worth it given how much opportunity he’s getting and how cheap he comes.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
The biggest favorite on the slate today is the Florida Panthers, who are at home and taking on a Rangers team who actually has more wins than Florida but is also averaging under 3.0 goals per game. Sergei Bobrovsky had started to cool off a bit before the break, but he’s also put up strong home splits this season and has a 9-1 record at home this year.
Ultimately, we have to trust the numbers here, and Bobrovsky is not only a -181 favorite but also ranks out with a Ceiling Projection that is three points higher than the next goalie in the Projected Points Model today on FantasyLabs. He’s a fine pay-up target against a Rangers offense that really hasn’t been all that good in 2021.
Mackenzie Blackwood ($7,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) @ Buffalo Sabres
The Devils enter this game as -140 favorites on the moneyline, making them one of the stronger favorites on this slate, which has a lot of tight games from an odds perspective. Mackenzie Blackwood certainly has had an up and down season, but some of his recent woes were brought on by an apparent neck injury. The now healthy Blackwood is available for good prices tonight on both sites and rates out with the fourth-best Ceiling Projection on the slate.
Without any dominant players/favorites to pay up for in net today, the Devils starter looks to be in a good spot here for DFS purposes and will certainly be a great option on FanDuel, where he’s under $7,000 (and may not even be that heavily rostered due to his recent game logs, which are all poor).
Notable Stack
Oilers L1 – Conner McDavid – Zach Hyman – Warren Foegele
Devils L1 – Nico Hischier – Paval Zacha – Jesper Bratt
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
I’ve mentioned the Oilers already in this article above, and the fact they are getting Zach Hyman back for this game against the Blues is significant for DFS. He’s already got 11 goals and makes for an easy stacking target with Conner McDavid as the two will be joined at the hip on the powerplay and at regular strength. The Oilers’ top line ranks out with the best rating in the Stacking Tool under the Projected Points Model today on FantasyLabs.
Coming in right behind the Oilers is an equal bargain in the Devils’ top line. New Jersey’s trio of Hischier, Zacha, and Bratt have become a great correlation trio as they often stick together on the powerplay play as well as at even strength. The matchup with the Sabres here have elevated most of them in the model today on FantasyLabs, and they come in right behind the Oilers in strength in terms of a stack. Taking out Zacha and inserting Dougie Hamilton to get better exposure to the powerplay here is also something you could consider.
