The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a six-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sidney Crosby ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) at Edmonton Oilers
The center position is loaded with the Oilers, Leafs, and Avalanche in play today but I like going to an old reliable in Sidney Crosby here. Crosby is still fifth in Ceiling Projection today in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model, which is significant given his sub $8,000 salary on both sites. Crosby has picked up his pace in the short-term here, too, landing four assists and a goal in his last three games.
The Oilers allow the fourth-most shots against in the league per game this year and have allowed 3.27 goals against per game over their last 11 starts. Crosby rate out first in the Player Ratings on FanDuel today, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating, but he and the rest of the Penguins’ top line make for a good contrarian stack on a night where the field is more likely to pay up for one of the bigger names at center.
Top Value
Trevor Zegras ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
The Ducks’ top-six forwards have all been great surprises this year for fantasy purposes, and Trevor Zegras is no exception. The 20-year-old is averaging .75 points per game and ranks in the top 10% in blocked shots + shots on goal per game at his position over the last month, via the FantasyLabs ProTrends Tool.
The Ducks also look like they may be without Ryan Getzlaf in this game as well, which would only give Zegras a better opportunity. He’s looking like a great value today on DraftKings, where he’s ranked sixth in Player Ratings in the Projected Points Model and comes in averaging 5.2 shots on net over his last three games as well. Go to the Ducks center and top lines tonight for value.
Wing
Top Play
Artemi Panarin ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Rangers studs all rank out well today in the FantasyLabs Model, and it’s likely for good reason. The Flyers have cooled off dramatically after a hot start and have now allowed an alarming 4.5 goals per game over their last six games. Panarin has been underperforming his career rates this year, slightly, mainly in the shooting department, where he’s only landed goals on 10.6% of his shots, almost 4% under his career mark. Positive regression can come in a hurry for a player this talented, though, and he still tops the Ceiling Projections on both sites today in the Projected Points Model.
Panarin is a huge value on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain rating but with the Rangers projected for 3.6 goals in their implied team total here stocking up on the Rangers studs on Fanduel can also be a good contrarian move to consider today. The Flyers provide a +2.3 mark in the Opponent plus/minus department today, the strongest at wing, making Panarin the number one mark to target at his position here.
Top Value
Jonathan Marchessault ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) at Anaheim Ducks
The Golden Knights have finally got all of their big scoring wingers healthy and on the ice at the same time. The team enters this game off a loss to the Oilers, but Jonathan Marchessault landed five shots on goal and an assist in his return from IR. The winger has been flashings elite metrics all season and ranks third in long-term CorsiFor Rating and fourth in shots on goal per game (3.03 shots per game).
Marchessault is clearly the better value on DraftKings, where he’s essentially a free spot at $4,900 (anytime you can get a guy averaging 3.3 shots on goal and over a point per game over his last 10 starts, you should probably take him at this price). The return of Vegas’ elite scorers, too, should only help his upside given the increased efficiency they should bring to special teams.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) at Anaheim Ducks
It’s becoming a boring exercise, but every time Alex Pietrangelo is on a slate these days, it’s nearly impossible to recommend a better pay-up option on defense. The Golden Knights defenseman is still available at very reasonable prices here, especially on DraftKings, where he’s well under $7,000 and only the third most expensive player on the slate. While there are good players ranked in front of him, Pietrangelo ranks second on both sites in Player Ratings today in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model and remains first in long-term blocked shots + shots on goal at 5.43 per game.
The Ducks are also coming off an emotional win last night and playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. Vegas is at full strength and in a good position here to produce some offense. Backing Pietrangelo at a still palatable price tag makes sense here again.
Top Value
Vince Dunn ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
The Kraken are still without Mark Giordano (COVID-19), and that’s allowed Vince Dunn to take a more prominent role, which includes more power-play time. Dunn has now played over 20 minutes per game in his last two starts and has been on the ice for over 65% of the powerplay minutes for the Kraken over their last three starts.
The Red Wings have a bottom-10 penalty-kill, so seeing Dunn show up here with a point wouldn’t be shocking at all. In terms of projections, Dunn has the second-highest Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Model today of any player ranked under $4,000 on DraftKings for the slate. He’s a fine pay-down option given the opponent.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Igor Shesterkin ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
The Flyers have been objectively awful over their last little stretch, allowing 4.5 goals per game over a six-game losing streak. The Rangers come in as the biggest favorites on the board today at -190 on the Money Line, and Shesterkin tops the Ceiling Projections by a nearly a three-point margin.
Shesterkin’s play really hasn’t leveled off much this year either, as he’s been brilliant all season and has a .925 save percentage over his last 10 games. The Flyers rank out as a good opponent here and have averaged under 2.0 goals per game over their last six outings. Shesterkin’s a great pay-up option today.
Top Value
Darcy Kuemper ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) at Toronto Maple Leafs
The Avalanche come in as small underdogs, as of writing, at +106 on the moneyline, but that line could change with the impending news that Nathan MacKinnon will be active for this game. Regardless of where the line goes, you have to like picking up the Avalanche goalie for cheap tonight. Colorado has won seven of their last eight games now, and Darcy Kuemper has picked up wins now in seven of his last 10 appearances and posted save percentages of .927 or better in five of those starts.
Kuemper rates out fifth in Ceiling Projections today, which is quite high for a player salaried well under $8,000 on both sites. He’s a fine pay-down option and a great player to grab some leverage from in GPPs off the sure-to-be popular Toronto forwards.
Notable Stack
Canucks – Bo Horvat – Tanner Pearson – Connor Garland
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We haven’t discussed the Canucks much, but they do have a terrific matchup against the Senators, who are last in the league in goals against per game at 3.8. The Canucks second-line has really been providing most of the offense for this team over the last couple of weeks and are available here at a very cheap price. Conor Garland comes in averaging 3.9 shots on goal per game over his last 10 starts and has found a good connection with Bo Horvat, who remains very cheap and is shooting well below his career mark in shoot percentage this year.
This line ranks out first when we build by Player Ratings in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool and is a cheap stack that will let you dabble on other high-priced studs in other games today. The Canucks’ top offensive options shouldn’t be overlooked here.
