The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an eight-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Steven Stamkos ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
Take note — Steven Stamkos is a center on DraftKings slates and winger at FanDuel, but his fantasy ceiling is among the best on both slates.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are without a couple of their best offensive players, with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point out with various injuries. Stamkos has responded by putting the team on his back on carrying them offensively over the past few games. Stammer has six points over his previous four games and continues to get 62.8% of his starts in the attacking zone, thanks in part to his time on the team’s top powerplay unit.
Stamkos will continue to drive the Lightning’s offensive bus and projects as a top option on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Joel Eriksson Ek ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
The Minnesota Wild are quietly having a superb start to the season, and Joel Eriksson Ek has been a big part of their success. He should flourish against the Arizona Coyotes on the second night of a back-to-back.
Eriksson Ek is a 200-foot player, recording 55 shots on net and 18 block shots while spending time on the Wild’s powerplay and penalty kill. The 24-year-old has all his metrics working in his favor, with his relative metrics all above 50.0% despite him starting the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone. He’ll get a chance to exploit a Coyotes team that has given up an average of 15.8 high-danger chances over their past four games.
This is a favorable spot for the Wild and one that Eriksson Ek can use to his advantage to surpass his implied fantasy value.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($9,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
Seventeen seasons in the league and no signs of slowing down. Alex Ovechkin continues to thrive with the Washington Capitals and should continue his scorching pace against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday.
Ovechkin is second in league scoring, sitting second in goals and points but is doing everything he can to surpass Leon Draisaitl. The Great Eight has 11 points over his past five games, including seven goals, a game-winner, and three powerplay points. Ovi has 95 shots and 78 scoring chances through his first 22 games and will continue to produce while getting 84.9% of his starts in the attacking zone.
The Caps are a well-oiled machine right now, and not even father time can slow down Ovechkin.
Top Value
Taylor Hall ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
Taylor Hall is in a great spot to exceed his Median Projections against the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday Night.
The former first overall selection has been promoted to the top line after Brad Marchand was suspended for three games and will benefit from skating on a line next to Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. New linemates aren’t the only factor working in Hall’s favor, though. Hall has also been an analytics darling, putting up the best expected goals-for rating on the Boston Bruins this season, currently rating at 69.6% across all strengths.
The Bruins’ top line has been one of the most dominant in the league over the past few seasons, and Hall can reap the rewards next to two of the best in the business.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Another slate, another night that Roman Josi projects as a top option. Josi and the Nashville Predators can continue their recent upward trend against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday.
The Preds’ success isn’t reflected in their outcomes over their recent sample, but their metrics have them pointed in the right direction. Nashville has outplayed three of their past five opponents at five-on-five but has only two wins over that span. We’re expecting Josi to lead the charge against the Jackets tonight, and that’s reflected in his floor, median, and ceiling projections.
The former Norris Trophy winner remains the Preds’ on-ice leader in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances. Josi has at least two shots on net in seven straight games and at least one block in six of seven. He’ll continue his strong fantasy output tonight against Columbus.
Top Value
Mikhail Sergachev ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
Mikhail Sergachev is a value play on tonight’s slates and should continue his increased productivity against the St. Louis Blues.
The Russian defenseman has points in four of his past five games, putting up above-average fantasy points in three of his past five games. The Lightning deploy Sergachev under any circumstance, with the defender playing on both special teams while playing the third-most minutes at five-on-five.
Sergachev has a positive expected goals-for rating and remains below expected output, which suggests that we should expect sustained output from him over the coming games.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Kaapo Kahkonen ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
For the second night in a row, our top option in net is a goalie facing the Coyotes; however, we’re hoping for a better result tonight.
Kaapo Kahkonen leads the Wild into tonight’s Central Division battle against Arizona. Kahkonen has alternate good and bad outings, but as we saw last night, won’t face a ton of pressure from the Coyotes. The Wild have been there to pick up their tendy, helping him to a 2-1-1 record and offering 16 goals of support across his four starts. Minnesota appears to be sheltering their goalie, starting him in a team-friendly spot to get his confidence back up. It should pay off against an inferior Coyotes team.
Kahkonen stopped 24 of 26 shots when these teams met on November 10 and should be able to replicate that performance against the Coyotes on the second night of a back-to-back with travel.
Top Value
James Reimer ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The DFS world continues to expect Reimer to implode, underpricing him on slates. However, we like the value Reimer provides against the New Jersey Devils tonight.
The Devils have recorded two or fewer goals in three of their past five outings and rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for. That sets Reimer up to continue with his torrid play to start the season. Reimer is stopping 93.3% of shots with seven wins through his first 13 appearances, 11 starts. The 33-year-old is above-average in advanced metrics across the board and positioned to continue that against a Devils team struggling to find the back of the net.
The San Jose Sharks have outplayed their opponents in five of their past six but only have three wins over that span. Look for Reimer to help them to another victory against the Devils.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There’s a full NHL slate tonight, meaning there are a number of stacks to consider. After weighing our projections and the betting information carefully, we landed on a Predators stack against the Blue Jackets.
The Jackets don’t travel well, going 4-4-0 through their first eight road games of the season, giving up an average of 14.5 high-danger and 33.1 scoring chances per game. As noted, Josi is a top option on the blue line and worth including on any Preds’ stack. He should be stacked with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund, who have been point-per-game players for Nashville this season. The forwards skate on a line with Matt Duchene, who is the teams top point-getter, and they should thrive against the Jackets. Juuse Saros is the projected starter and is in a good spot to reach his ceiling projections on Tuesday night.
The Preds opened in the -150 range but have been bought up to -160 or so, highlighting the betting confidence in the Preds tonight.
