The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a three-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Every time the Edmonton Oilers take to the ice, we have to assess which player has the better chance to outperform their linemate, Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Tonight, we went with the former in a home-ice matchup with the Dallas Stars.
McDavid rates better in our projections against the Stars tonight and carries a lower salary, making him the more attractive option. Connor also has better underlying metrics compared to Draisaitl and should thrive against the Stars. The two-time Hart Trophy winner has a 56.4% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five, jumping up to 67.3% across all strengths, both of which are higher than Draisaitl’s ratings.
Draisaitl has more effective output over his recent sample, but McDavid should start to catch up, making him the best option at center.
Top Value
Anthony Cirelli ($4,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Anthony Cirelli is one of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s best forwards. The 24-year-old should continue his upward trend against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday.
The Lightning center is coming off a two-goal performance against the Minnesota Wild and has recorded two or more shots in eight straight games. Cirelli has the fourth-best expected goals-for rating at five-on-five on the Lightning, despite getting 48.9% of his starts in the attacking zone. However, Cirelli also centers the Bolts’ top powerplay unit, elevating his fantasy appeal.
This salary doesn’t do Cirelli justice; look for him to improve his output over the coming games, dragging his salary up in the future. For now, he’s a value play.
Wing
Top Play
Johnny Gaudreau ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
There is a substantive difference between Johnny Gaudreau’s valuation on DraftKings versus FanDuel. Gaudreau is an absolute steal over at DK, but he’s our top option on the wing.
Gaudreau has scored seven points over his past four games, improving his point total to 22 in 17 this season. The Flames’ top winger has three powerplay points, three game-winning goals, and ranks second on the team in shots on goal. A closer review of his analytics support that Gaudreau is dictating pace on the ice. His relative production metrics are all in the 60.0% range, as he’s out-shot, out-possessed, and out-chanced his opponents in scoring and high-danger chances at a 61.1% rate or better. Those metrics have resulted in the second-best expected goals-for percentage (62.5%) across all strengths on the team.
It’s an ideal matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks tonight, and Gaudreau should reach his fantasy ceiling.
Top Value
Denis Gurianov ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
Dallas Stars winger Denis Gurianov has a lot of fantasy upside, which isn’t reflected in his salary against the Oilers tonight.
The 24-year-old skates on the Stars second line with Jamie Benn and Michael Raffl and on the second powerplay line. Gurianov has seen a recent uptick in output, recording three points, two of which have come with the man-advantage, over his past four games. He has above-average metrics at five-on-five, but where Gurianov separates himself from the pack is across all strengths. The Russian forward has the second-best expected goals-for rating on the team, posting solid relative metrics.
The Oilers aren’t immune to giving up chances, and that should allow Gurianov to continue his recent hot streak.
Defense
Top Play
Victor Hedman ($8,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Few things in the hockey world are as consistent as Victor Hedman is. The hulking defenseman remains a steadying force on the Lightning’s back end and is set up for another good showing against the Flyers.
Hedman has points in five straight games, scoring two goals, five assists, and three powerplay points. The former Norris Trophy winner records fantasy points on both ends of the ice. Hedman leads the Lightning in shots, ranks second in blocks, and is the leading scorer on defense. No Lightning player spends more time on the ice as Hedman, and the only players more productive are forwards.
FanDuel has a discounted price on Hedman tonight, but he’s a top play on both platforms.
Top Value
Esa Lindell ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Stars have an embarrassment of riches on the back end, but Esa Lindell is asserting himself as a productive fantasy contributor.
Four of Lindell’s five points this season have come over his past three games. Lindell has recorded points at even strength on the powerplay and shorthanded, highlighting his versatility and offensive upside for the Stars. That increased productivity has resulted in more playing time, as Lindell has topped 23 minutes in all three games. He’ll continue to create chances against an Oilers team that has given up three or more goals in six of their past eight games.
FanDuel has adjusted Lindell’s salary to reflect his increased productivity, but he remains a value play on DFS slates.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
It’s not too often we get to say this, but Andrei Vasilevskiy is due for a bounce-back effort. The Russian netminder has posted below-average save percentages in consecutive games and is due for an improvement against the Flyers.
Vasilevskiy’s recent performances have dropped his save percentage slightly below his career average. He’s seen dips in his even-strength save percentage and scoring chance save percentage this season and should start to progress back towards career norms. The Lightning are in a good spot against the Flyers, who have won just two of their past six games, setting Vasilevskiy up to get back on track on Tuesday night.
According to our projections, Vasilevskiy is the top option in net tonight.
Top Value
Marc-Andre Fleury ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Blackhawks don’t have a lot going for them this season, but one of the few bright spots has been the improved play from Marc-Andre Fleury.
Fleury started his tenure with the Blackhawks by stopping just 88.1% of shots through his first eight games with the club. Since then, Fleury has responded by stopping 96.4% of shots faced over his past four, helping the Hawks to wins in all four games. The veteran netminder has been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 91.5% save percentage as the visitor.
The Flames are returning home from an extended road trip, which could present as a bit of a flat spot for them. That could perpetuate Fleury’s recent upswing. At the lowest salary available, Fleury is a value play against the Flames.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We’re highlighting the Lightning as our notable stack, using projected points as the filter for choosing which players are the best option tonight.
Cirelli may be a value play, but he’s included in several Lightning combinations on tonight’s slate. Pairing him with Alex Killorn upfront is an ideal way to maximize fantasy points as the forwards skate together on the Bolts second line and top powerplay line. We discussed the merits of including Hedman on DFS rosters tonight; however, the combination that we landed on included Ryan McDonagh as the defenseman. McDonagh has similar upside to Hedman, spending time on the powerplay while also blocking shots in his own end. The Lightning stack wouldn’t be complete without including all-World goaltender Vasilevskiy. As noted, he is in a team-friendly spot on Tuesday night.
As usual, the betting market has expressed confidence in our stack, as the Lightning enter tonight’s contest as -182 home favorites.
