The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sidney Crosby ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
There’s a lot of star power in today’s NHL, but one player who continues to fly under the radar is Sidney Crosby. Sid the Kid continues to excel, and we like his fantasy ceiling against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday.
The Pittsburgh Penguins center is on the ice for an average of 14.0 scoring and 5.7 high-danger chances per game, leading the Pens’ forwards. Crosby continues to convert on those opportunities with 61 points through 51 games, putting him on pace for a 98 point season in a full schedule. The two-time Hart Trophy winner is racking up points over his recent schedule, getting on the scoresheet in 11 of his past 12 and totaling 15 points over that stretch.
The Jackets have a loose defensive zone coverage standard, allowing 10 or more high-danger chances across all strengths in six of their past seven and giving up an average of 14.1 per game. Crosby should continue to capitalize against their ineffective defense.
Top Value
Mika Zibanejad ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
This isn’t the most inexpensive salary on the board tonight, but there’s no passing up Mika Zibanejad‘s value against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday’s slate.
Zibanejad gets the lions’ share of offensive opportunities with the New York Rangers’ best players. The Swedish-born center skates on the first line with Chris Kreider and Alexis Lafreniere, while also quarterbacking the top powerplay unit that also features Artemi Panarin. Zibanejad has rewarded the Rangers with 63 points in 63 games and is the leader in ice-time among the forwards’ corps.
Production is one of Zibanejad’s biggest assets as he ranks near the top of every offensive category, recording multi-shot outings in 13 of his past 15 games. Nobody has been able to slow down Zibanejad, and the Devils aren’t about to get in his way.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
The Vegas Golden Knights have faltered to end the season, and those concerns have been amplified on the road, with just three wins in their past 11 road games. That’s a good indicator that Kyle Connor and the Winnipeg Jets can continue their scorching play.
The Jets have scored four or more goals in three of their previous four outings, and Connor has led the charge into each game. The 25-year-old has 11 points across the four-game sample, recording three or more points in all but one of those. Connor’s advanced metrics imply that he’s found a sustainable pace. Connor leads the team in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances, and the 98 goals he’s been on the ice for are only marginally above his expected total of 91.2.
Winnipeg’s offense goes as far as Connor carries it, and right now, everyone’s enjoying the ride. Connor is the top option on the wing.
Top Value
Jordan Kyrou ($5,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
Jordan Kyrou is quietly taking care of business with the St. Louis Blues this season. The fourth-year winger leads the team in scoring and has been flourishing over the Blues’ last five games. Kyrou presents as a value play against the Washington Capitals.
The Blues continue to set Kyrou up for success, skating him on their second line and as the point man on their second powerplay unit. Among forwards, only Vladimir Tarasenko gets a higher percentage of starts in the attacking zone; however, Kyrou out-rates Tarasenko in Corsi, shots-for, scoring-chances, and high-danger chances rating. Even though he skates on the second line, Kyrou is out-producing Tarasenko, who was previously viewed as the Blues’ best player.
Kyrou has seven points over his past five games, with four multi-shot efforts to boot. Those efforts have combined for 74.1 fantasy points over that stretch. We’re expecting a similar showing against the Caps.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($8,700 DraftKings, $700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
There has been no better player in the NHL than Roman Josi over the past week. The hulking d-man has multi-point efforts in five straight games, totaling 15 points. Josi projects as a top-rated rearguard yet again against the Los Angeles Kings.
Josi’s recent performances have helped him usurp Cale Makar as the top-scoring defenseman in the NHL. The 31-year-old leads defensemen in scoring, assists, and powerplay points while playing over 25 minutes a night. No team has found a way to limit Josi, as he comes into tonight’s Western Conference matchup on a 10-game point streak, recording four or more shots in seven of those games.
Very few players can keep up with Josi, who ranks eighth in the league in on-ice shots-for and 11th in scoring chances. The Kings could be just another blip on the radar after Josi blows through town.
Top Value
Evan Bouchard ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard has earned an increased role on the team, improving his fantasy value along the way. We like him to reach his ceiling against the Dallas Stars on Tuesday night.
Bouchard leads the Oilers’ rearguards in scoring, accumulating 32 points in 62 games. Still, Bouchard’s been on the ice for 48 goals, below his expected total of 75.4, and has posted an actual goals-for rating of 48.9%, well below his expected value of 55.3%. The Oilers continue to deploy Bouchard with their best skaters, boosting his fantasy value. That’s not reflected in his salary tonight, as he has a $4,000 salary on both platforms.
The Oilers are surging, going 5-0-1 over their previous six games. Bouchard is a progression candidate and should get in on the action against the Stars.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jacob Markstrom ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Calgary Flames lead the Pacific Division, posting some of the best advanced metrics in the league this season. Jacob Markstrom has benefitted from the strong defensive coverage while also acting as a last line of defense. We’re anticipating another A+ effort from the netminder against the San Jose Sharks.
The Flames play a suffocating defensive brand of hockey that make chances hard to come by. They’ve limited six of their past eight opponents to six or fewer quality opportunities and five of eight to 17 or fewer scoring chances. Markstrom is thriving with the improved defensive efforts, stopping 95.9% of shots over his last five starts.
Markstrom has been nearly unbeatable at home this season, dropping just four decisions in regulation and going 18-4-6 overall. His current form and the Flames improved defensive zone coverage makes him a top play in net.
Top Value
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are spiraling at a time when Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets are finding ways to win games, leaving Hellebuyck with an opportunity to exceed the implied salary value against the Knights.
We’ve seen inconsistent efforts from Hellebuyck this season, but he appears to be trending in the right direction ahead of this Western Conference clash. The former Vezina Trophy winner has wins in three of his past four games and is stopping 91.3% of shots over that span. He’ll get a chance to further the Jets cause against a Vegas squad that can’t figure things out on the road and has struggled over their current schedule.
The Knights stock continues to tumble, as they’ve been outplayed in four of their past five, at a time when we’re seeing improved play from Hellebuyck. The Jets’ tendy is worth including on rosters as a value play in net.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The betting market has several teams installed as substantive favorites on Tuesday night. That confidence is also reflected in our projections, with a few teams ranking as ideal stacking options. We’ve landed on the Penguins as our preferred option against the Blue Jackets.
One of the top-rated stacks includes the team’s top two scoring leaders, Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. Crosby is a driving force on the Pens’ offense, and Guentzel is his right-hand man, skating next to him on the top line and powerplay unit. They are joined by defenseman Kris Letang, who is the preferred option on defense. Letang is a powerplay specialist and has racked up 52 points this season, good enough for third on the team. Tristan Jarry continues to be a difference-maker for the Penguins and, as the projected starter, is worth including on your Penguins stack.
Pittsburgh opened as -300 favorites and have been bought up to the -360 range. That betting price could climb even higher as we approach puck drop.
