The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Leon Draisaitl ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Edmonton Oilers have implemented a new system under head coach Jay Woodcroft, resulting in improved performances for several players. We’re anticipating another strong showing from them against the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, led by Leon Draisaitl.
Draisaitl has earned an increased role over his recent sample, eclipsing 24 minutes in five straight contests. He’s using that time to his advantage, coming off consecutive five-shot performances. Drai’s underlying metrics remain outstanding. The German-born center has a 60.7% expected goals-for rating despite taking on more penalty killing responsibilities. That’s led to more fantasy points for Draisaitl, as he has nine blocks since Woodcroft took over, compared to six through his first 44 games of the season.
We’re seeing a more consistent version of Draisaitl recently, with the former Hart Trophy winner putting up points in 13 of his past 16 outings. That should continue at home against the Wings.
Top Value
Roope Hintz ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs goaltending is limiting opponents with the effectiveness of a sieve preventing water from flowing through the Hoover Dam. Roope Hintz and the Dallas Stars are the next to capitalize.
Hintz has points in six of his previous nine contests and his efforts remain uninhibited. The 25-year-old has multi-shot efforts in six of those contests and has been held without a shot just twice over that span. Analytically, there’s no better player on the Stars. Hintz leads the team in expected goals-for rating at 64.2% while starting 66.4% of his shifts in the attacking zone.
The Stars continue to deploy Hintz under ideal circumstances and the Finnish forward continues to reward them. The Leafs won’t have an answer for him.
Wing
Top Play
Chris Kreider ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
Only once this season has Chris Kreider been held pointless for four straight games. He’ll look to avoid the dubious distinction again when the New York Rangers host the Anaheim Ducks.
Kreider ranks as one of the best wing options available and his advanced metrics support that he’s due for a reversal of fortunes. The American-born forward is third on the team in high-danger chances and fourth in scoring opportunities, resulting in the top-rated expected goals-for rating on the team. Kreider has been unrelenting, putting shots on net in 34 straight games, with 28 of those registering as multi-shot efforts. It’s no wonder Kreider has already set a career-high in goals with 23 games left in the season.
John Gibson has been terrible for the Ducks recently, stopping just 84.0% of shots over his past four appearances. Kreider and the Ranger can extend that misery on Tuesday.
Top Value
Mason Marchment ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
With the dazzling group of players the Florida Panthers have, you’d be forgiven for overlooking Mason Marchment‘s contributions. However, you’d be remiss if you didn’t include him in your DFS lineups against the San Jose Sharks.
Among Panthers who have skated at least 400 minutes this season, nobody rates higher than Marchment in expected goals-for rating. Although he’s been held pointless in three straight games, Marchment has dialed up the intensity over his recent sample. The 26-year-old has points in four of his past eight, recording shots in all but one of those contests, with two multi-point efforts and seven total points.
The Sharks have a tendency to give up a lot of chances, giving up 10 or more quality chances at five-on-five in five straight games. The emphasis will be on neutralizing the Panthers’ top two lines, leaving plenty of space for Marchment to continue his solid efforts.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
Dougie Hamilton has struggled in his first season with the New Jersey Devils, but that has dissuaded us from including him as the top play on defense on tonight’s slate.
There are a few variables that factor into Hamilton being included on DFS rosters. First, Hamilton is underachieving relative to his metrics. The veteran defenseman’s actual goals-for rating of 50.9% is below his expected value of 55.2%. That is also reflected in his on-ice PDO of 0.980. Hamilton has an affinity for creating quality chances, ranking sixth on the team in on-ice opportunities despite playing in 20 fewer games. Lastly, the Vancouver Canucks have a loose defensive standard that affords opponents plenty of quality chances.
All things considered, Hamilton and the Devils offense stacks up well against the Canucks. We’re expecting Hamilton to reach his fantasy ceiling in this non-conference matchup.
Top Value
Filip Hronek ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Red Wings have a pair of defensemen to build their future around in Moritz Seider and Filip Hronek, but it’s Hronek that is undervalued against the Oilers on Tuesday night.
Hronek comes into tonight’s matchup playing north of 20 minutes and recording two shots on net in three straight games. The Czech defender spends time with the top two lines and also on the Wings’ second powerplay unit. He uses that time to get make good reads in the attacking zone, with 13 of his 24 assists coming as first assists.
Starting goalies will factor into what kind of night Hronek has. Regardless, we like him as a value play and he could easily surpass his projected ceiling against the Oilers.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Igor Shesterkin ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
Nearly every night Igor Shesterkin steps onto the ice, he makes a stronger case that he is Vezina-worthy. He can further his own cause and help the Rangers secure a crucial two points against the Ducks.
Shesterkin is coming off a pair of subpar road outings, posting a combined 84.0% save percentage across those games. However, he returns home where he’s been absolutely electric this season. The former fourth-round selection is stopping 94.3% of shots at Madison Square Garden, helping him to a 16-2-2 record.
The Ducks don’t mortgage their defensive structure for a few extra offensive opportunities, attempting more than nine high-danger chances twice over their last 10 games. It’s unlikely they’ll find success against Shesterkin and the Broadway Blueshirts at home.
Top Value
Juuse Saros ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Nashville Predators versus the Pittsburgh Penguins is a tough matchup to handicap, and that’s reflected in our projections that rate these goalies almost identically. We give the edge to Juuse Saros and the Predators on home ice.
One of the factors that weighed into our analysis is the Pens’ recent performances as a team. Pittsburgh has been outplayed at five-on-five in three of their past four games. That should continue on Tuesday as the Preds have a home-ice advantage and can match lines to limit the Penguins’ attack.
Another component supporting Saros’s success are his recent performances. The Finnish netminder has posted a save percentage of 95.7% or higher in three of his last four starts, including one shutout.
The Preds have limited opponents to an average of 6.8 high-danger chances per game over their past five, with only one of those opponents cracking double-digits. We like Saros as a value play against the Penguins.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are several teams worth consideration on tonight’s 11-game docket, but we’re going with one of the highest-rated projections as our notable stack.
The Edmonton Oilers are operating efficiently over their recent stretch, outplaying five of their past six opponents at five-on-five and establishing a cumulative 54.7% expected goals-for rating. The offense has been the backbone of their success and there are a few lineup combinations you could employ.
We’re building around Connor McDavid and his newly-minted linemate Kailer Yamamoto. We all know what McDavid brings to the table, but Yamamoto has stepped up his game since joining him on the top line. Yamamoto has points in consecutive games, adding six shots and two blocks over that modest span. Darnell Nurse is a solid two-way contributor adding fantasy on both ends of the ice. We’ve included him in our stack, as he remains an integral part of the Oilers lineup. Mikko Koskinen is the projected starter and can build off his recent 9-2-2 streak against the inferior Wings.
That confidence is reflected in the betting market, where the Oilers sit as -300 favorites.
