The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Mark Scheifele ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Life goes on for the Winnipeg Jets now that the Paul Maurice era has come to an end. The Jets have recently put forward some impressive offensive metrics, and top-line center Mark Scheifele is leading the charge.
Scheifele was underachieving relative to his production metrics, but his output is starting to catch up. The 28-year-old has points in seven of his past nine, recording 18 shots over his previous five games. Scheifele is also part of the Jets’ top powerplay unit, and five of his past 12 points have come on the man advantage.
As a team, the Jets have attempted 14 or more quality chances in five straight games. Scheifele will continue to have his fingers in the pot against the Arizona Coyotes tonight.
Top Value
Nico Hischier ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Boston Bruins
New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier is running hot over his recent sample and will be the focal point on the Devils’ offense against the Boston Bruins again.
Hischier has solid relative metrics across the board, with his possession, shots, and production metrics all above 50.0%. Individually, the 23-year-old has attempted 37 high-danger and 72 scoring chances through 28 games this season. The former No. 1 selection has translated that to a five-game point streak, in which he’s delivered 82.9 fantasy points.
The Bruins have given up 12 or more quality chances in two of their past three, and Hischier will be ready to capitalize when those opportunities become available tonight. He’s our top value at center.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks have been a springboard for some memorable offensive performances this season. Mikko Rantanen will hope to extend that distinction on Tuesday night.
The Colorado Avalanche winger has been scoring at will over his recent stretch, accumulating 10 points over his past five outings, including a pair of three-point performances. Rantanen has outstanding underlying metrics, establishing a 67.2% expected goals-for rating across all strengths while skating next to one of the premier centers in the league.
Since returning to action, the Hawks have looked out of sorts, giving up 11 goals through their first two games back. That sets the Avs up for another successful offensive showing at the United Center.
Top Value
David Pastrnak ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
David Pastrnak has been a little snake-bitten this season. The Czech forward has just 21 points through 28 games this season, and that’s decreasing his salary on DFS slates. However, his advanced metrics continue to support he’s one of the best in the league, and we’re using him as a value play on tonight’s slate.
Pasta has the 19th-rated expected goals-for percentage in the NHL, among all players who have played at least 300 minutes. However, he has the 351st-ranked PDO, as the Bruins’ on-ice shooting percentage is down to 8.9%, with Pastrnak on the ice. Pastrnak’s personal shooting percentage has also cratered, currently sitting at 6.7%, well below his career average of 13.7%.
The advanced metrics support that Pastrnak is a progression candidate. His production stats support that he remains one of the best in the game, and his output will start to catch up.
Defense
Top Play
Shea Theodore ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The Vegas Golden Knights have two of the best defensemen in the league, making it challenging to select just one for your DFS rosters. After comparing projections and salaries, we landed on Shea Theodore as the top defensive option on Tuesday’s slate.
Analytically, Theodore has been the more productive player this season. On a per-minute basis, Theodore creates more scoring and high-danger chances than his counterpart Alex Pietrangelo and has a 57.6% expected goals-for percentage, compared to Pietrangelo’s 49.6% rating. Practically, that has translated to increased output, as Theodore has more points and powerplay points than Pietrangelo this season.
It’s unlikely that either player would be an ineffective addition to any DFS roster, but we give the advantage to Theodore against the Nashville Predators.
Top Value
Keith Yandle ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
This season, Keith Yandle has been one of the most productive defensemen on the Philadelphia Flyers and remains an undervalued fantasy contributor.
The 35-year-old is coming off a four-shot performance against the Los Angeles Kings, his second multi-shot effort over his previous three games. Yandle remains a meaningful contributor, skating on the Flyers’ powerplay and ranking ninth in scoring chances and eighth in high-danger opportunities. The Flyers continue to deploy Yandle in the offensive zone, giving him 75.4% of his starts in the attacking zone.
The Flyers offense has been operating efficiently, and Yandle will continue to have opportunities against the Anaheim Ducks. He’s a low-cost option with a high fantasy ceiling, making him a value option on tonight’s slates.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Linus Ullmark ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
Goaltending has been a bit of an issue for the Bruins this season; however, we’re expecting progression from Bruins’ goaltenders over their coming stretch, as the B’s metrics remain some of the best in the league.
Boston has limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in 15 of their past 16 games, limiting their opponents to an average of 6.3 high-danger chances per game over that span. Linus Ullmark has responded well to the improved defensive play, posting an above-average save percentage in five of his past seven starts and posting a cumulative 93.3% save percentage over his past four starts.
Ullmark projects as one of the top options on tonight’s slate and should help the Bruins maintain their winning ways since returning to action.
John Gibson ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
John Gibson has been a steadying force for the Ducks this season and is in a good spot to continue his strong play.
As is typically the case, Gibson has played better at home than on the road this season, posting a 92.2% save percentage at home compared to 91.0% on the road. Since returning to action, he’s also been pretty unlucky, posting a 93.2% save percentage across the three games but losing all three contests. More wins should follow his recent performances.
We’re expecting a reversal of fortunes for Gibson and the Ducks on Tuesday night against the Flyers, relying on the Ducks’ goalie as a value option between the pipes.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
A couple of teams rate highly in our projections tonight, but we’ve elected to go with an Avalanche stack as they look to prolong the Hawks’ recent misery.
We highlighted Mikko Rantanen as the top option on the wing and alluded to his linemate Nathan MacKinnon as part of his fantasy appeal. Both players skate on the Avs’ top line and powerplay unit, making them strongly correlated options on tonight’s slate. Cale Makar is one of the best defensemen in the league, projecting as one of the best options on tonight’s slate. He skates with Rantanen and MacKinnon on the Avs’ powerplay and is often aligned with them at even strength. Darcy Kuemper is the projected starter and has posted above-average save percentages in four straight games.
Altogether, the Avs project as one of the best options on Tuesday’s slate. That confidence is also reflected in the betting market, as they are priced as substantive -255 favorites against the struggling Hawks.
