The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($7,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver Canucks
The Florida Panthers offense has been superb since the holiday break, scoring four or more goals in every contest and averaging 5.5 a game. Aleksander Barkov remains an integral part of that attack and should continue his proficient play against the Vancouver Canucks.
The Finnish center has seven points over his past five games, delivering at least three shots in every contest and racking up a combined 123.9 fantasy points. Barkov has strong underlying metrics, putting forth a 60.0% expected goals-for rating across all strengths and individually creating 79 scoring and 37 high-danger chances in 22 games.
The Canucks have overachieved relative to their metrics recently, putting them at risk of regression. Barkov and the Panthers will be ready to pounce on Tuesday night.
Top Value
Bo Horvat ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
On the other end of the ice will be Bo Horvat, who remains one of the Canucks’ best forwards. Although they are due for a few more losses, we should continue to see strong offensive metrics from them under Bruce Boudreau.
The Canucks have put up at least 10 high-danger chances in seven of the nine games under Boudreau, and Horvat has been a big part of that. Horvat ranks third on the Nucks in scoring and high-danger chances while playing on the team’s top powerplay unit. The Canadian forward has been operating efficiently over his recent sample, attempting 26 shots over his past six games, recording just four points.
We’ve pegged Horvat as a progression candidate, and he should surpass the implied value of his salary on both slates.
Wing
Top Play
Patrick Kane ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Patrick Kane remains an invaluable offensive contributor for the Chicago Blackhawks, who have put forward above-average offensive metrics recently. Based on our projections, Kane and the Hawks should be expected to continue their improved output against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The former Hart Trophy winner is riding a four-game point streak into Tuesday’s inter-conference battle. Over that span, Kane has directed 13 shots on target and accumulated 71.9 fantasy points. Kane is doing damage across all strengths, with three of his six points during his four-game point streak coming on the powerplay and the other three coming at even strength.
We’re expecting more of the same against the Jackets, who have allowed at least three goals in eight straight games, with opponents scoring four or more in five of those contests. Worse, they’ve allowed 10 or more high-danger chances in 15 straight games.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Detroit Red Wings are having a better than expected season, thanks in large part to their stable of young talent. Among those is Lucas Raymond, who has been one of the team’s best forwards.
Raymond has the best Corsi rating on the Wings, posting a 54.4% rating across all strengths. That, along with his on-ice scoring chance and high-danger ratings, are contributing to his second-ranked expected goals-for percentage. The 19-year-old hasn’t had much puck luck recently, recording just two assists over his past five outings, but he’s put nine shots on target over his previous four games.
The Wings have scored three or more goals in four of their past seven. If Raymond maintains his level of production, then similar outings should follow.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
There is a very clear distinction between elite fantasy defensemen and the rest of the pack. Nashville Predators rearguard Roman Josi is on the elite end of the spectrum and remains one of the top producers this season.
Josi is a point-per-game player this season, putting up 34 points in just as many contests and averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game. The Swiss-born defenseman is heating up, recording four points, three of which came on the man advantage over the past couple of games. He sets up well against a Colorado Avalanche squad that has given up 13 or more high-danger chances in four straight games and is playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Preds are 8-1-1 over their previous 10 outings, winning four straight games heading into tonight’s intradivisional battle. Josi should help Nashville continue their improved play.
Top Value
Mikhail Sergachev ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
One of Tuesday’s mismatches features one of the best teams in the NHL against one of the worst when the Tampa Bay Lightning travel to take on the Buffalo Sabres. We’re highlighting Mikhail Sergachev as a value play on defense for the Bolts.
The Lightning deploy Sergachev on the penalty kill, more often than the powerplay, and that impacts his analytics across all strengths; however, the Russian blueliner has strong offensive metrics, establishing a 57.8% high-danger chances-for percentage at five-on-five, ranking second on the team in the number of chances.
Sergachev is well-positioned to continue his strong offensive play against the Sabres on Tuesday. Buffalo has given up 33 or more scoring chances in four of their past five, allowing at least three goals in each contest.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Tristan Jarry ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The Pittsburgh Penguins continue their six-game road trip against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday night. Tristan Jarry continues to rank among the elite goalies in the NHL and is worth investing in against the Ducks.
Jarry ranks third in the league in save percentage and first in goals-against average among goalies with at least 10 starts. His advanced metrics are equally impressive, as the 26-year-old is stopping 85.9% of high-danger chances, 88.8% of scoring chances, and 94.0% of powerplay shots, all of which are above career norms.
The Ducks aren’t a team that pushes the pace offensively, preferring to play a defensive and opportunistic system. That sets Jarry up to continue his outstanding season and help the Pens get back on the winning track.
Marc-Andre Fleury ($7,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Marc-Andre Fleury is coming off a revenge win against his former club. Although his ongoing success is contraindicated in his salary, we like the Flower to continue his strong play against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Blue Jackets are one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 26th in expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five and putting up some of the weakest offensive metrics in the NHL. The Jackets have attempted the eighth-fewest shots and sixth-fewest high-danger opportunities, with their recent game scores taking a nose dive. Columbus has put up 19 or fewer scoring chances in three of five, 24 or fewer shots in four of five, and no more than nine high-danger chances at five-on-five in seven straight, leading up to tonight’s contest.
Fleury won’t be challenged on Tuesday night, allowing him to reach his fantasy ceiling against a subpar Jackets team. That makes him a value play on both platforms.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Our Lineup Builder reveals several highly projected stacks for the busy Tuesday night slate. We opened with the Panthers, and we are closing with them, highlighting one center, winger, defenseman, and goalie as our notable stack.
Aleksander Barkov remains the top option up the middle for the Panthers. We’ve paired him with Carter Verhaeghe upfront, who has put forth some strong offensive outings recently. Verhaeghe has two multi-point outings over his past three games, recording six points since the Panthers returned after the holiday break. Aaron Ekblad is the top option on the blueline. The former first overall selection accumulates fantasy points on both ends of the ice and has four points over this previous three games. The Panthers are projected to go with Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes, who should continue his 4-0-1 over his past five starts.
Betting market confidence is high on the Panthers, with Florida entering tonight’s contest in the -225 range. The Panthers should continue their recent uptick in production, making them our preferred stacking option.
